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Ukraine Invasion: Part 17

998 replies

MagicFox · 27/03/2022 07:23

A new place for us to convene, thread 17.

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33
littledrummergirl · 28/03/2022 23:57

LuluBlakey1

I wonder if anyone else is beginning to feel that Ukraine are not entirely to be trusted. It may be the way of wars and propaganda- I don't know. I just feel their statistics (numbers of Russians dead/Russian weaponry destroyed/generals killed vs numbers of Ukrainian military killed, children killed, civilians killed) and some of their accounts of events are not accurate and there are indications emerging of things happening which, if Russia was doing them, would be reason for outcry. An example would be the video of alleged Russian soldiers being tortured this morning- there was a denial now there is an investigation and a comment about how action will be taken if it is true. I read at the weekend about right-wing Ukrainian para-military groups being tolerated before the war and one integrated into the army.
It is hard to know but I just have a feeling of doubt about Ukraine and suspect it has been a country less 'Westernised' than we think. I wonder how much corruption has existed.
I am not pro-Putin in any way but I am starting to wonder about aspects of Ukraine politically. This war started with outrage about 'poor Ukraine' but I am feeling less convinced about how stable it ever was.

Nope.
Of course Ukraine is less westernised than the UK, it was part of the Soviet Union and has only recently been able to decide which direction it wants to move as a country.
It's then been attacked by a neighbouring country who has deliberately been causing instability to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO.
Yes there is propaganda, anyone who's read about wars would expect nothing less. Both sides will be trying to make the other look bad.

Clearly Russia have to try harder in this regard, if they want this invasion to stop they can just go home. The Ukrainians aren't so lucky.
It seems that Russia are becoming more desperate in their attempts at trying to make themselves look like the victim, the dodgy videos from this morning being evidence.
It just makes Putin look more idiotic to be honest.

So no, I'm not taking the bait to justify Putins invasion of a sovereign country. There is no justification and his troops should just fuck off back to Russia. They clearly have no regard for life in any shape.

RedToothBrush · 28/03/2022 23:57

[quote AngelsForever]@Redtoothbrush

I've been a bit of a lurker here and have really liked your insightful posts and your are 1000% more knowledgeable than me!
I was wondering what your thoughts are of propaganda from the media (our media)...the Russians as we have seen are getting it but do you feel we (Europe and the the west) maybe lied to and goaded also? Please don't get me wrong putin is a wart that needs eradicating! I just have a gut feeling they are ramming things down our throat without us knowing the whole story and scaring the hell out of us![/quote]
We are always being lied to. I think over wars like this it tends to be more by omission rather than dirty great black lies. Simply because there is this point that you can only hide something so much if you have many journalists all looking for a scoop. Journalists in war zones have to also be mindful of how their reporting can endanger lives if they aren't careful. So details are likely to be often changed.

For me I think its about getting an overall sense of things thats important and what you should look for - cross reference things. Look for patterns.

Even though Ukrainian numbers of military losses aren't being reported, we KNOW they are relatively high. Not as high as the Russians, but still significant. No one is denying this.

In terms of civilian loses, its incredibly difficult to calculate. People will just be 'missing' and with so many dispersed across Europe it might be impossible to work out in the long run too. If anything it works to Ukrainian propaganda to over emphasis civilian deaths. However all the numbers that there have been seen small compared to the sheer scale of damage. So you have to assume that people largely got out.

I think the biggest issue now is actually in terms of 'the taken' as they are being called. These are people who are alive but have been abducted. We don't know who they are and there is no way of tracking them. In the midst of all the unidentified bodies and refugees its easier to make thousands just disappear.

And also think people need to reflect (in some cases HARD because the whatabouttery is painful) about the fact that Ukrainians are not abducting Russian children from their homes in Russia. They are not going to the homes of elderly Russian women who have lived there for 80 years and burning it to the ground. They are not going into Russian towns and gang raping Russian women.

There is no 'preemptive' about it. There is evidence for it unfortunately.

The scale of what we are misled about in the West for this conflict is on a completely different scale.

FWIW It serves the purposes of west governments to largely tell us about whats happening in Ukraine because of who the attacking force is and what our political objectives are. I don't think I could say the same about Afghanistan or Iraq in the same way for the same reason. (Doing a thesis comparing war reporting in the Middle East and Europe in the 2000s is someone's destiny)

I actually think we are seeing more of a reality because of this dynamic. There isn't the incentive to sanitise in the same way,. It also is the first war in the social media era in Europe.

We are struggling to cope with that. Other parts of the world have already been through this...

Its a shock to the system to suddenly be confronted with it I think.

I have also noticed that there seems to be a marked difference between posters old enough to remember Bosnia and those who are too young to remember it too.

AngelsForever · 28/03/2022 23:59

@CailleachGranda

Poking the bear is a saying

I didn't mean anything weird by it

I feel you may be a bit uptight, we are just having a conversation

I have said in ever single post I am not pro war.

Last post is right your bullies aren't you, do you believe in democracy? Do you no what that is? Have you ever heard about listening to peoples opinions?

SenoraMiasma · 29/03/2022 00:02

@LuluBlakey1

I think the original message in the media was Ukraine as innocent, Putin as irrational aggressor.

When you build an identity around a country as innocent, I think the message we, the public got very clearly were messages based around an extension of that theme that cast Ukraine as victim, helpless, underdog, in need of help. I think that’s the media’s messaging. To then see soldiers acting aggressively even though they are being brutalised each day doesn’t sit with our idea of someone who needs help.

I get what you are saying, I think - nothing is black and white and the original messaging did suggest it was, then you hear about right wing groups, mercenaries, Zelensky and the Panama papers and it makes you think (because we are all feeling this so intently) hang on, that doesn’t sound so innocent - these people know what they are doing.

But the key thing I take away from this is that Ukraine is a sovereign country and it’s borders were invaded. They aren’t on the offensive, here, are they?

AngelsForever · 29/03/2022 00:03

Thank you @RedToothBrush

prettybird · 29/03/2022 00:04

I suppose you could say that we are being presented with a "view". Hmm

After all, Germany needed lebensraum so had to invade Sudetenland which was really full of Aryans Ukraine is really part of Russia and not a nation in its own right and really wants to be back in the Russian sphere of influence rather than joining EU and NATO.

And Poland Ukraine is full of Jews Nazis and is therefore asking to be denazified invaded so as to be liberated Confused

There are of course always two sides to a story Hmm

I am of course being sarcastic in case anyone sensible is wondering Sad

RedToothBrush · 29/03/2022 00:05

I am saying at the beginning this was painted by the media in a very Russia bad, Ukraine good way. I am not convinced now that is entirely true. Russia's actions must be condemned- they are terrible but I am less convinced about what has been happening in Ukraine before the war than I was. I suspect it has been much more corrupt and extreme in parts - and perhaps that is part of moving away from Putin's Russia towards more democratic processes but I think we have much more to know yet (or I do). It is a very different war, even to the last wars in Iran and Afghanistan.

See my comment about thinking HARD about whatabouttery.

CailleachGranda · 29/03/2022 00:05

[quote AngelsForever]@CailleachGranda

Poking the bear is a saying

I didn't mean anything weird by it

I feel you may be a bit uptight, we are just having a conversation

I have said in ever single post I am not pro war.

Last post is right your bullies aren't you, do you believe in democracy? Do you no what that is? Have you ever heard about listening to peoples opinions? [/quote]
I know what poking the bear means "hunnie"

My inference from your use of the term is that Ukraine we're asking for it.

I'm still not clear what all your handwringing is about and what your outside the box comment means. I'm
It entirely sure you do either, though.

Twitter's great for conspiracies, you shouldn't check it out. Lots of victim blaming, pro-Putin, Ukraine-bad stuff you can read up on

DrBlackbird · 29/03/2022 00:06

Oh. Back to this again. Azov again. Russia being provoked again.

This war started with outrage about 'poor Ukraine' but I am feeling less convinced about how stable it ever was

And every bomb, every murder, every deliberate targeting of women, children, old people, journalists, people left to starve, without food or medicine, humanitarian corridors promised and then not delivered, I feel more enraged at Putin, at the Kremlin and Russia for this continued indefensible and utterly senseless senseless killing of innocent people.

To somehow imply that Ukraine’s ‘instability’ justifies Putin’s war on a sovereign nation is pretty shocking. If that’s not what you mean, why mention it?

prettybird · 29/03/2022 00:08

Another question to the "two sides to every story" argument: how many civilian deaths have there been in Russia as a result of this "special military operation"? Hmm

RedToothBrush · 29/03/2022 00:08

(FWIWI was VERY strongly opposed to both Iraq II and Afghanistan. I was probably significantly 'softer' in terms of intervention in Libya for various reason though, but have since done something of a 180 on that tbh).

CailleachGranda · 29/03/2022 00:09

The pro-Putin stuff had tailed off a bit on
Mumsnet but looks like there is a bit of a resurgence

littledrummergirl · 29/03/2022 00:10

Since when has robust debate been bullying and undemocratic?
Show your evidence from reputable sources and back your arguments.
If you truly believe that the Russian decision to invade Ukraine and that the atrocities being committed as a result is not just acceptable but absolutely the right thing to do then have the courage to debate it and persuade me as to why I think it's wrong and morally reprehensible.

Personally I think anyone with access to facts about this invasion and still thinks Putin is right is batshit crazy. But that's only my opinion and I will stand by it until I'm persuaded otherwise.

Not sure how that's bullying, maybe you could explain that to me as well?

AngelsForever · 29/03/2022 00:11

@CailleachGranda I was going to ignore you but you have actually made me laugh out loud hahaha

Im sorry I have unintentionally wound you up so much 😬

Im not talking about all Ukrainian people I think you have misunderstood me

shreddednips · 29/03/2022 00:12

@DrBlackbird

Oh. Back to this again. Azov again. Russia being provoked again.

This war started with outrage about 'poor Ukraine' but I am feeling less convinced about how stable it ever was

And every bomb, every murder, every deliberate targeting of women, children, old people, journalists, people left to starve, without food or medicine, humanitarian corridors promised and then not delivered, I feel more enraged at Putin, at the Kremlin and Russia for this continued indefensible and utterly senseless senseless killing of innocent people.

To somehow imply that Ukraine’s ‘instability’ justifies Putin’s war on a sovereign nation is pretty shocking. If that’s not what you mean, why mention it?

Agreed. Whatever domestic issues Ukraine may or may not have had, that's Ukraine's business for Ukraine to handle. I don't see how it's at all relevant in a discussion about a war that only exists because Russia chose to invade.
MMBaranova · 29/03/2022 00:13

Sometimes the shift changes at Savushkina Street and in Yoshkar-Ola are a bit blatant.

I've done my occasional dive onto VK. Lots of Abramovich. Plenty of attempts at showing Insta-type lives in Russia, tricks for successful vegetable growing, rabid nutjobbery. The usual then, but dialled up a little.

CailleachGranda · 29/03/2022 00:13

[quote AngelsForever]@CailleachGranda I was going to ignore you but you have actually made me laugh out loud hahaha

Im sorry I have unintentionally wound you up so much 😬

Im not talking about all Ukrainian people I think you have misunderstood me [/quote]
I'm glad you find this tragedy amusing.

Maybe that's what missing for you - zelensky is a comedian after all, maybe he should be telling jokes

Shameful

1dayatatime · 29/03/2022 00:14

@Ijsbear

I wish, wish, wish that the west would give some tanks to them.
There are a number of factors against giving Ukraine NATO tanks.

Firstly Ukrainians are used to operating Russian built T72 and T80 tanks. To operate more modern NATO tanks would require extensive training that would simply take too long to be of benefit.

Secondly thanks to captured Russian tanks, Ukraine actually now has more tanks than when the war first started:

www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/03/24/the-ukrainian-army-has-captured-enough-russian-tanks-to-make-good-all-its-own-losses-and-then-some/amp/

Thirdly one take away lesson from this conflict is how vulnerable tanks are to anti tank missiles. Ukrainian tanks are equally as vulnerable to anti tank missiles.

Fourthly anti aircraft and anti tank missiles are defensive weapons, whereas a tank can be an offensive and defensive weapon. Rightly or wrongly This changes the current NATO policy of helping Ukraine to resist a Russian rather than launch an offensive attack against Russia.

Lastly tanks are actually only really useful to takin on other tanks. The Ukrainians seem to be doing a good job on this with Western anti tank missiles.

So to conclude even if the Ukrainians did get their hands on NATO tanks and assuming they could operate them then they wouldn't be much use anyway.

blueshoes · 29/03/2022 00:14

[quote AngelsForever]@CailleachGranda I was going to ignore you but you have actually made me laugh out loud hahaha

Im sorry I have unintentionally wound you up so much 😬

Im not talking about all Ukrainian people I think you have misunderstood me [/quote]
Puerile.

I don't think you know what you are talking about but do keep digging.

DrBlackbird · 29/03/2022 00:15

@MMBaranova

Sometimes the shift changes at Savushkina Street and in Yoshkar-Ola are a bit blatant.

I've done my occasional dive onto VK. Lots of Abramovich. Plenty of attempts at showing Insta-type lives in Russia, tricks for successful vegetable growing, rabid nutjobbery. The usual then, but dialled up a little.

True
CailleachGranda · 29/03/2022 00:16

@MMBaranova

Sometimes the shift changes at Savushkina Street and in Yoshkar-Ola are a bit blatant.

I've done my occasional dive onto VK. Lots of Abramovich. Plenty of attempts at showing Insta-type lives in Russia, tricks for successful vegetable growing, rabid nutjobbery. The usual then, but dialled up a little.

They can clearly adapt to portray the pearl clutching "oooh silly little me doesn't think it's alllll Russia's fault"

It is pretty disgusting

AngelsForever · 29/03/2022 00:17

Please guys, I am absolutely NOT pro putin

I am not referring to the war in such sense I mean the escalation to it

I may be wrong but the latest I read was that regarding negotiations P is ok with Ukraine being part of the Eu but not NATO - not that it's up to him! - and America is part of nato and not the Eu...it's America that is his big problem - I'm probably so wrong but it's just a thought....open conversations right?

CailleachGranda · 29/03/2022 00:20

WTAF

Thanks to all the intelligent posters for their insight tonight, as every night. Very useful and very helpful

RedToothBrush · 29/03/2022 00:25

Also worth reflecting on how western public support for Vietnam collapsed because of images of harm to civilians. (and how western governments grappled with this issue in subsequent wars).

But we still saw it. And knew it happened and acknowledged it. It was just excused rather than outright covered up particularly in later conflicts.

One of the things thats so hard for us to get our heads around is the complete denialism from many Russians or thinking that the lost of their solider sons was 'necessary'.

There is definitely some cognitive dissonance going on here by the west in that regard.

There are differences though too. Troops better trained and disciplined (though still far too many unacceptable incidences). And no carpet bombing. The scale and deliberate disregard for life is on a different scale for Russia.

Neither is good.

DrBlackbird · 29/03/2022 00:27

I am not referring to the war in such sense I mean the escalation to it

Okay, not pro-Putin, but it’s not clear what you mean by referring to ‘the escalation’ of the war. Russia is relentlessly shelling and bombing many Ukrainian cities every day. Refusing to allow humanitarian corridors for civilians to leave so as not to starve to death. That kind of escalation?

I may be wrong but the latest I read was that regarding negotiations P is ok with Ukraine being part of the Eu but not NATO - not that it's up to him! - and America is part of nato and not the Eu...it's America that is his big problem - I'm probably so wrong but it's just a thought....open conversations right?

There was something in the news to this effect. However, an immediate cease fire and withdrawal of Russian troops would lend support to this alleged position. Until that happens I’d take the idea that Putin would green light Ukraine’s EU membership in return for a promise never to seek NATO membership with a bucket of salt.