Are you worried this is the start of ww3 and nukes will be used ?

[LovelyYellowLabrador]

Or do you think realistically no one will start to use Nuclear weapons

I think I’m thinking about it today after some comments from friends yesterday who thought it was a very likely possibility these friends are in there 70s so have seen a lot in life very grounded and wise
So I though if they think it’s v likely then wonder what other people that are wiser than me think

No.

I’m not sure that being “grounded and wise” and it your 70s really gives you any special understanding.

Just perhaps stops you from panicking about what you don’t know.

Interesting as my Mum and Dad are in their 70s they know a lot about geo-politics, fled a dictator in the 70s and they are not as worried as the Cuban Missile crisis but then again maybe they are hiding this from me. I am early 40s and I've never known my Dad to be anything other than brutally realistic with me.

At a guess, I'd say the true probability is less than one in 2 but considerably more than 1 in 1000. Of course we don't know what it is (and it's always changing) but the point is there is nonetheless a point where it is sufficiently likely you would expect people's behaviour to change. Even just crying out on the streets.

I've never understood perfectly healthy people who work themselves into a panic about something they have absolutely no control over.

People suffering with anxiety disorders, of course, perfectly understandable, but otherwise healthy people? No.

Is there a possibility we all perish in a nuclear holocaust? Well, I'd say that compared to the 60's, 70's, and even 1980's, right now that possibility is still remote. Is there a possibility I get squashed by a bus later today? Yes. Is there a possibility I suffer a cardiac arrest in my sleep tonight? Yes. Is there a possibility I get struck down by a meteorite while walking down the road later? Yes. Will I give a moments thought, never mind working myself into a foamy panic about any of these possibilities? No, because they are no more under my control than the matter of NATO and Russia mutually deciding to turn the planet into glorified snow globe is. So why bother giving it a moment's thought?

With respect, some people really need to get some perspective.

No. I just spent 2 years about covid, 4 years before that worrying about brexit and it changed nothing. If Putin wants to blow us up tomorrow I will not be spending my last 24 hours worrying about it.

[quote Aimee1987]@hariboqueen1
Russia has over 6 thousand nukes and the us has over 5 thousand. That's not counting the European countries that also have nukes ( alot less). Also as someone said upthread the technology for these wepons has drastically increased meaning their blast radius is larger.
It very much has the potential to end the world[/quote]
Er Yea I know but just because they have hundreds of nukes doesnt mean they fire them all in one go! You do one or two and hope the other side surrenders. If no one does,
you retaliate one by one. No one is going to get in a full blown nuke war until the earth ends. Each nuke will be strategically placed, and damages assessed. Until someone doesnt want to see their country destroyed anymore. This end of world stuff is utter crap.

It might happen and it might not. If the UK gets nuked they'll probably go for airbases, so where I live would be flattened.

Nuclear war is a scary prospect and many people worried about it in the same way through the 70s and 80s. I had many graphic nightmares in those days. When I spoke to my dad about my fears, he said it was exactly the same in the 60s and people were saying there was no point in having children because we were all about to be bombed. The same fears are playing out again and being stoked by the media. I can't see the point in that, it serves no purpose except to frighten people who can do nothing to alter the situation. It's not like we can all pop out and get ourselves a nuclear shelter, after all.

So, no, I'm not worried. No one gets out of here alive anyway. My main concerns at the moment are how high our bills are going to get and what to grow in the vegetable garden this year.

If Russia ended up using nukes, ever NATO country would retaliate.

Putin knows this and he also know that if he uses scare tactics it will prevent other nations getting involved in Ukraine.

@FraterculaArctica

Those of you who aren't worried - is it because you think it won't happen, or you aren't worried about being snuffed out? This is what I can't get my head round... if someone close to you had say terminal cancer, you would expect to be upset and spend a lot of time talking about how to come to terms with it. Yet the likelihood of this happening to all of us and no-one seems remotely bothered!

Countries have nuclear weapons to dissuade other countries from using the nuclear weapons they also have. Putin is a dictator, but he cannot get to the button without going through many ,many other people. He would be shot before he was able to press it. He also knows that if he launched anything, retaliation would be instant. The chance of any of this escalating beyond Ukraine is vanishingly small. If the people of Ukraine had surrendered immediately then Putin may have gone further afield. They didn't. They are holding back the invasion. His plans are falling apart before his eyes. His troops are young, poorly trained and woefully under resourced. NATO will not get involved. It will burn itself out.

Are you in Britain? Since when did your typical Brit express their emotions in 'the streets'. It is not really school gate chatter as the children are around and at work people are trying to help with fundraising. My DH is still a workaholic and talks to me about it in a emotionally stable way. He obviously feels that the news is harrowing but he just gets on with things.

@FraterculaArctica

Well that's where the probability becomes important doesn't it. If it was (say) a 1:1000 chance, no it wouldn't be comparable. But other posters on this thread have also agreed they think it's likely (I'm guessing >1:2 chance). In those circumstances, then yes I can't understand why everyone appears so unbothered.

What is the point of worrying about it tough? I refuse to spend my life worrying it away, over things that I have no control over.

I'm more worried about the possible use of biological and chemical weapons. They are relatively easy to transport and disperse. Not just on individuals but airborne substances can spread over huge areas and huge numbers of people. Putin is not only insane, he is ruthless

I hate to break it to you but WW3 started several years ago. It started when Russia manipulated the electorates of the US and UK to vote for Trump and Brexit, both of which benefit Russia. It started when Russia sowed disinformation and division in the West, funding political campaigns and spreading hate. It started when Russia destabilised regions of Georgia and Ukraine, using separatist movements and proxies. Whether the West finally does something about it and whether it goes nuclear is anybody’s guess but don’t underestimated the extent to which Western politics and society has already been undermined by Russia.

@FraterculaArctica

Those of you who aren't worried - is it because you think it won't happen, or you aren't worried about being snuffed out? This is what I can't get my head round... if someone close to you had say terminal cancer, you would expect to be upset and spend a lot of time talking about how to come to terms with it. Yet the likelihood of this happening to all of us and no-one seems remotely bothered!

Because of just that, really.

It's a bit morbid, I suppose, but any one of us could be diagnosed with terminal cancer at any stage of our lives. Thousands of people across the world are every day and there's no way of knowing whether you might be among them one day. Given how cancer risk is increasing, the chances of being diagnosed are much higher than the chances of nuclear war, but I don't waste my life worrying that one day I might get cancer and it might kill me. I'll cross that bridge if/when I come to it, same with nuclear war. People with a real terminal cancer diagnosis still make the most of and enjoy their lives. I'm not going to go around wasting the life I have worrying about the remote possibility that one day some nutcase might put enough other nutcases in the right positions that when they give the order a strategic nuclear bomb is actually launched, because the chances may have increased lately but they're still very small. The chances of my crashing my car are higher and I still drive every day.

There are many stages of nuclear weapon use before we get to the end of humanity levels of destruction, I worry about people in Ukraine, I worry that chemical weapons might be used, i worry to a lesser degree that tactical nuclear weapons might be used. I don't particularly worry about the end of the world as we know it.

No

A. Putin is unlikely to be allowed to do this. It isn't just a big red button. Even if he did have a big red button then it wouldn't be connected to anything.

B. If Putin did press the big red button and the process worked then the missiles will not be in a state of readiness to actually launch.

C. The missiles will only exist on paper as the money to pay for them will have been whittled down through the endemic corruption in the system to the few display missiles brought out for parades.

D. The big red button disappeared years ago having been sold by some functionary for the price of a Big Mac and fries.

Yes I live in England

45 mins from London

@LovelyYellowLabrador

I think I’m thinking about it today after some comments from friends yesterday who thought it was a very likely possibility these friends are in there 70s so have seen a lot in life very grounded and wise So I though if they think it’s v likely then wonder what other people that are wiser than me think

Being 70 diesnt make you wiser or more foolish than anyone else. It literally just means you haven't died yet. My best friends mum is 80. She won't go out of the house now because we're all going to die.....every minute of every day is likely to herald armageddon. She watches every news programme on a rolling loop of doom. She was the same with Brexit and then covid. Catastrophic things are a heart beat away. Except that she is still here. The sun is still rising and setting Life goes on

I don’t think this will ever happen, Russia already said, we’d only use nuclear weapons if our very own existence was threatened” so in other words if someone else pushed the button first. Well that’s how I took it. He’s just got out of his pram & doing what Russia has always done, threatened nuclear war! This time the rest of the world are sick of it. Also don’t forget, he can’t just press that button himself, from my knowledge it’s a decision that is made by his inner circle too. He might want to destroy the world but they might not. They have friends/family all over the globe, lives etc. plus, if he did ever actually do it, he’d secure mutual destruction. Never going to happen Op. Russia can eliminate one man and save the world that’s the best option for everyone

The whole point is, there are a large number of smaller tactical nukes now and Russia doesn't differentiate between those and conventional warfare. There are a large number of articles on this. Russia can easily use a few of these in Ukraine, leaving NATO scratching its head - it can't not retaliate (or what is the point), but strategic retaliation involves its own destruction - and why is it worth it for the sake of Ukraine?

The emotional Brits weeping in the streets question was directed at FraterculaArctica as no I don't think you'll see lots of that.

No.
A nuclear threat is only likely from a rogue state that acquires one cheaply, potentially in the break up years of Russia, if that were to happen.
Putin is not a crazed demagogue with religious convictions.
He is a thug, a gangster.
He wants his money and power, but he doesn't want the end of the world or his life.

I’m certainly scared of surviving a nuclear attack. I’d rather just go into the mushroom.

But no, I’m not worried about something I have no control over. My heartbreaks for the people in Ukraine fleeing their homes and all that they know, children leaving fathers behind and this would be a much scarier and sadder prospect for me than death by nuclear war.

So I’m just trying to live my best life, after paying my electric bill.