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Ukraine-invasion-part-16

991 replies

PestorPeston · 22/03/2022 23:46

Warsaw Russian is letting out a lot of smoke - there has been no decision on who among them will be the next pontiff.

Biden is going there Friday

Is Boris Johnson the designated survivor?

Who the heck let me be in charge?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
18
Ijsbear · 24/03/2022 07:57

^Anonymous
@LatestAnonPress
Anonymous hacks Russia's Central Bank and more than 35,000 files will be exposed in 48 hours.^

I know there's some bluster but those buggers can be little ferrets rooting things out. Wonder if they'll have got anything interesting.

notimagain · 24/03/2022 08:00

[quote Ijsbear]@notimagain Thanks. When someone posted that 2 new aircraft and some minor upgrades cost 110m, well, that puts things into perspective![/quote]
Yep..it’s chuffing expensive business…when I was in that line of work a new aircraft was a ballpark a million sterling, plus or minus and some of the fancy ordnance was 100k a “round”l

Quite a few decades later it can easily be up around 100 million for the aircraft and some ordnance is well over a million a pop.

Then again if people think “defence’ is expensive then they need to in light of current events about how expensive not having defence might be

RedToothBrush · 24/03/2022 08:00

@Ijsbear

redToothBrush and other military folk: From what I've read the Russian battle units can produce a lot of firepower and are even better defensively.

Given that they are not making ground and possibly even losing some around Kyiv, is it possible that they really could be pushed back around there?

Is it feasible they could even retake the red-controlled rim around the borders to the East, NE and South-East? Or will reclaiming that area have to be part of a peace deal?

I know there are no guarenteed answers, but your thoughts would be appreciated.

What I read was its true about firepower and defense BUT if they lose just 10% of their capability they are at significant risk because of their lack of flexibility.

This also does not take into account stretched logistics or being encircled.

Your battle unit can be strong, but if the Ukrainians have picked off your few logistics trucks, it becomes a matter of time.

Thats why the speculation is they will take their time with Irpin, Hostomel and Bucha.

And in the case of Mykolaiv if the Russians decide to try and go around, it arguably plays to Ukrainians strengths because the Russians will be exposed rather than dug in.

Its also why it will be harder to push back the closer to the border you get.

So battle strength is important, but so is flexibility, whether you are exposed or dug in and your logistics.

jgw1 · 24/03/2022 08:05

On the flip side the Govt must not be allowed to blame everything on the Ukraine war, many of these issues are the result of Tory policy and nothing else. We mustn’t let the Govt use Ukraine as a facade for poor policy like they did with Covid.

Do you think Rishi will manage to crash the UK economy as a result of the Ukraine war by more than any other G7 country and then be able to claim we have the fastest growth again afterwards?

RedToothBrush · 24/03/2022 08:09

www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/spain-leads-call-for-change-in-dysfunctional-energy-pricing-1.4834569
Spain leads call for change in dysfunctional energy pricing
Europe Letter: Energy to spark difficult debate as 27 EU leaders meet in Brussels

The talk in Brussels is that Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez needs to bring home a result from this week’s European Council – or his political future may be at stake.

Spain is at the sharp end of a surge in energy and fuel costs. Truck drivers say it costs so much to refuel that they lose money making deliveries, and have gone on strike, dismissing a government subsidy offer as inadequate. Supply chains are at risk. Supermarket shelves have emptied, as the effect of the strike combines with bulk-buying behaviour due to rising food prices and concerns about the war in Ukraine

In addition, roughly one-third of households in Spain are on electricity contracts that link their bills directly to spot market rates. Those rose 400 per cent between April and October 2021 – before Russia’s invasion sent them even higher.

What makes the situation additionally painful is that almost half of Spain’s electricity was from renewable sources last year. Only 10-15 per cent was from gas. Despite flowing in for free from the sun and wind, electricity from renewables is priced at the same rate of gas, because of how the European Union’s energy pricing system works.

And

EU countries widely acknowledge the system has broken. But they disagree on what to do about it.

Spain has led calls for the electricity pricing market to be changed to remove the role of gas. Belgium has called for gas prices to be capped. Italy, Greece, and Portugal back them up.

Ireland is among the countries cautious about interfering in the market for fear of unintended consequences. Critics object that the renewable energy producers who are currently raking it in will suffer if the market is interfered with. And if gas prices are capped, governments will need to make up the difference to suppliers, or they will simply sell their fuel elsewhere (this would result in a defacto EU “Gazprom fund”, one diplomat predicted).

Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands and others argue that it all makes the case to speed the transition to green energy. Bulgaria, Hungary and Poland disingenuously argue that climate measures caused the price rise, and therefore the green transition should be delayed.

Poland has also led calls for the EU to stop buying gas from Russia outright. German chancellor Olaf Scholz has ruled this out, saying the resulting shortages would plunge Europe into recession, risking “entire industries” and “hundreds of thousands of jobs”

Single biggest issue for meeting today.

namitynamechange · 24/03/2022 08:10

@Alexandra2001
Johnson said: “We have to recognise that the old concepts of fighting big tank battles on European land mass are over and there are other better things we should be investing in

Much as it galls me, I think in some ways Johnson has been proved right on the tanks thing. We are seeing million dollar tanks being taken out with hand held Javelins and Singers that cost a tiny fraction of their price and can be operated effectively by people with a few hours training.

DrBlackbird · 24/03/2022 08:11

And a lot of my thinking recently has been along the lines of why have I avoided getting this emotionally preoccupied with Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen? Iraq and Palestine I've lost some sleep over and I'm trying to figure out why I've been so selective. I've read comments in recent weeks suggesting it's racism

These comparisons have occasionally been alluded to here and in the press. Made me think about it as well. Perhaps racism plays some role, but my conclusion is that most of those conflicts involve a significant amount of internal fighting. One group or groups of the same nationality but of different religious and/or ethnic factions (each supported by bigger countries Russia, Saudi Arabia, US, UK by varying degrees) fighting other groups of the same nationality. The Palestine-Isreali conflict is, IMO, closer to Ukraine-Russia war albeit key difference is Israel is not currently bombing the hell out of Palestine to take over all of its territory.

Overall, those conflicts appear more complicated and involve the same nationality fighting each other. Difficult for many outside those countries to even comprehend who are the aggressors and who are the victims. A simplistic framing yes, but that’s news.

This situation is markedly different. Here we have Russia, a world power, clearly the aggressor invading what we all see is a ‘weaker’, but clearly sovereign nation. Even if Russia had contained its operations solely to Ukraine’s separatist regions, there would have likely been less concern by the world. However, to all intents and purposes, wider Ukraine was carrying on about its own business until we start to witness Russian forces bombing and killing Ukrainians with absolutely no provocation apart from Putin’s fantasy ones.

Yes, we’ve now heard about NATO ‘aggression’ and Ukraine’s desire to join the EU as provocation, but this rationale seemed questionable to say the least and now thanks to these poster’s and wider analysis we read about Putin’s tyrannical delusions to reclaim the Soviet era by force. In response we see desperate Ukrainians fighting to retain their sovereign independence against a bigger invading force. Now that invading force alludes to biological, chemical and even nuclear weapons. That is going to make us all pay attention.

All of this goes a long way to explain our attention and our sympathy and horror for the Ukrainian people. And concerns that it could spiral beyond those two countries. There may be an element of racism, but IMO that’s why the west/we are paying more attention to the people of Ukraine more than the other conflicts mentioned.

MarshaBradyo · 24/03/2022 08:15

@jgw1

On the flip side the Govt must not be allowed to blame everything on the Ukraine war, many of these issues are the result of Tory policy and nothing else. We mustn’t let the Govt use Ukraine as a facade for poor policy like they did with Covid.

Do you think Rishi will manage to crash the UK economy as a result of the Ukraine war by more than any other G7 country and then be able to claim we have the fastest growth again afterwards?

We have been hit by two huge society wide and global events one after the other.

Energy rises impact not just household bills but the things we need to buy - huge impact on cost of living.

I know it’s all sarcasm etc which is fine as that’s preferred by some but Sunak has done pretty well given massive shocks to the economy.

Igotjelly · 24/03/2022 08:18

I see a lot of commentators saying it’s because (obviously incredibly generally speaking!) these people look like the white British public. I think unfortunately unconscious and embedded racism has a great deal to do with it.

Incidentally I found the Syrian war incredibly upsetting but often wondered if that’s because my DC look Syrian so there was that level of personal connection to the conflict (is seeing my children in theirs)

jgw1 · 24/03/2022 08:20

I know it’s all sarcasm etc which is fine as that’s preferred by some but Sunak has done pretty well given massive shocks to the economy.

No sarcasm intended.

I am not sure how crashing the economy more than other equivalent countries counts as doing well, but that is for another thread.

namitynamechange · 24/03/2022 08:22

Also time/compassion fatigue. The Syrian conflict was all over the press at one point - everyone remembers that awful photo of the little boy covered in dust in the back of the ambulance. And groups like the white helmets were effective in drawing attention to those crimes (in addition to the sterling work they did saving lives). But as the war dragged on, it faded into the background (plus as Assad's forces gained ground many of the people documenting those tragedies either fled or were killed). Ditto Afghanistan was everywhere 6 months ago.
Its why I always try to keep donating to causes after they have faded from the front page.

Also - attention can be a double edged sword. I know some people from (peaceful, beautiful) parts of Africa for example who get frustrated with the constant portrayal of war/famine/poverty in the continent because its not like that in most places in Africa and harms Africa's image etc. But if those problems weren't reported on that would be problematic too...

Wrongkindofovercoat · 24/03/2022 08:23

There are many things going on but this war will impact cost of living

@MarshaBradyo Not denying that some of the sanctions may have an impact on the general cost of living. Just wouldn't want to see it used as a convenient scapegoat for the more complex economic reasons for the cost of living crisis. A Crisis that was already occuring prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine four weeks ago.

PestorPeston · 24/03/2022 08:25

There are reports that the Russian landing warship Orsk, docked in the port, is on fire.
Unconfirmed
twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1506901057594605580?s=20&t=zpQ3gtv-1GhERg88dRYfrQ

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 24/03/2022 08:25

Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof
The US and allies planned to support a Ukrainian insurgency after a swift Russian conventional victory. Now, they are struggling to sustain a Ukrainian Army that has held its ground and needs more ammo to fight a large-scale conventional war.
www.wsj.com/articles/weapons-for-ukraines-fight-against-russia-flow-through-small-polish-border-towns-11648066417?st=a3pfl3isvt8aqkf&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
Weapons for Ukraine’s Fight Against Russia Flow Through Small Polish Border Towns
U.S. and allies race to buy, deliver more arms as Kyiv warns it is running low

Ukraine’s ambassador to Britain, Vadym Prystaiko, on Wednesday said stocks of some key weapons could soon run out and that Ukrainian forces urgently needed long-range weaponry. “We didn’t have enough in the first place. Running out of weaponry will be seen in the week to come,” Mr. Prystaiko said in a television interview. “Tomorrow, President Zelensky will talk to NATO to see how we can replenish our stocks,” he said.

And

“The Ukrainians are expending a lot of ordnance, and this is more than we anticipated,” said a Western security official. “We are trying to step up the flow of weapons to meet that new requirement and there are constant shortages.”

And

While U.S. and European officials said they are moving as quickly as possible, some also fear that some of the weapons systems could end up in Russian hands or circulate for years on the black market. Some European nations are reluctant to provide more arms they fear could fuel a war on the continent. And U.S. officials, in the run-up to the Feb. 24 invasion, said they didn’t plan to support Ukraine with arms for a protracted period.

And

On a recent day, soldiers from the U.S. 82nd Airborne Division stood by the runway as other personnel swiftly unloaded a Turkish Gulfstream G450, which didn’t appear on ordinary flight-tracking websites. Turkey has supplied armed drones that Ukraine has used to attack Russian armored columns and other targets.

And

Before the invasion, weapons manufacturers weren’t geared up to make antitank and antiaircraft arms at a wartime pace. While the U.S. had 13,000 Stingers in its stockpile before the invasion, there were no plans to produce more en masse, U.S. officials said. Militaries in Europe that have given their Stingers and antitank missiles to Ukraine now want to refill depleted stocks, creating competition for new units rolling off the assembly line.

“Ready-made stocks are not inexhaustible,” said a defense contractor in Poland. “It isn’t the arsenal of democracy where refrigerator plants are also making airplanes. No. There is a very limited number of production facilities. You can maybe speed up some stuff, but it’s not like you can suddenly open up two or three new production lines.”

Now, as the warfare appears to emulate World War II, defense contractors are racing to ramp up the supplies of antiaircraft and antitank weaponry and ammunition. Central European defense ministers say they have set up a hotline into Ukraine, so that President Volodymyr Zelensky’s military chiefs can order former Soviet equipment from their stocks.

And

The Czech Republic has given Kyiv’s Defense Ministry a list of $500 million of gear in Czech warehouses, and says the U.S. has signaled its willingness to buy much of it, for onward donation to Ukraine. The items on the list range from ordinary machine gun ammunition to antiaircraft missiles capable of intercepting war planes at high altitudes, all of it ready to be delivered within four days of an order.

“The Ukrainians are choosing from it on a daily basis,” said Czech Deputy Defense Minister Tomáš Kopečný. Several times, he added, Russian operatives posing as European or American companies have tried to buy the weaponry, before it can be dispatched eastward into Ukraine.

MarshaBradyo · 24/03/2022 08:25

@jgw1

I know it’s all sarcasm etc which is fine as that’s preferred by some but Sunak has done pretty well given massive shocks to the economy.

No sarcasm intended.

I am not sure how crashing the economy more than other equivalent countries counts as doing well, but that is for another thread.

We’ve been highly protected if you consider employment and financial support

I’ve if his main aims was to keep people in work throughout a huge shock and employment is looking ok, but it does cost.

I felt some of the mounting costs difficult to watch as I knew it would hit back, but public demand was generally there to close sectors and pay.

To bring it back to this thread similar demands for sanctions, but everyone needs to acknowledge the cost linked to that.

ChardonnaysPetDragon · 24/03/2022 08:27

@Wrongkindofovercoat

I wouldn't be suprised to start seeing stuff that will try to blame the cost of living crisis on the war in Ukraine, to try and dial down the public support and sympathy. Waiting for the first DM headline exposing 'fake' Ukrainian refugee's.
Why do you think it will be just blaming? Wheat price is up, sunflower oil, energy is up, the sanctions bite both ways.

As for fake refugees, of course there will be. There are millions of people on the move, it's inevitable that some of them will be fake.

Onceuponatimeinalandfaraway · 24/03/2022 08:28

Just as I was getting out of the car nick ferarri on lbc had a Ukrainian mp on and he suggested there may have been a chemical attack in Kyiv as noxious gas was present. One to watch out for further reports off today and if they’re saying accidental, accidentally on purpose or definitely deliberate.

RedToothBrush · 24/03/2022 08:29

Dmytro Kuleba @DmytroKuleba
Ukraine Government Official
If any EU country bows to Putin’s humiliating demands to pay for oil and gas in rubles, it will be like helping Ukraine with one hand and helping Russians kill Ukrainians with the other. I urge relevant countries to make a wise and responsible choice.

shreddednips · 24/03/2022 08:33

[quote AgnesWestern]@elephantmarchingin

Do you think something has spooked them or are they just playing him at his own game re: the sabre rattling?[/quote]
Not necessarily I don't think, France doesn't have operational land-based nuclear weapons any more, so its submarines are a major part of its deterrent. They're not very deterrenty in a dock, and they're vulnerable to attack.

This next part is speculation, as I don't have specific naval knowledge. But I can't imagine that getting a crew prepared for two massive submarines and getting them out to sea is something that can be done overnight. So I'm wondering if France has decided it needs to protect its nuclear deterrent instead of being spooked by something specific in the last couple of days. Might be wrong though!

RedToothBrush · 24/03/2022 08:33

news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-a-bomb-flew-into-a-neighbouring-house-it-burned-down-completely-familys-story-of-escape-from-mariupol-12573708?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter
Family's story of escape from Mariupol
Mother and son, Natalya and Bogdan, say Mariupol is an "apocalypse" and like a "horror movie". As they were deciding whether to leave, they saw an old man and woman shot next to each other in a car, where their bodies remained for days.

Attempting their extraordinary escape four days ago, they made it on foot to a checkpoint on the outskirts Mariupol.

There they were intercepted by Russian forces and refused an offer to go to Russia. They spent a night at the checkpoint before making it on foot to a neighbouring village where they received an offer from strangers of a lift in a car.

DGRossetti · 24/03/2022 08:47

Before the invasion, weapons manufacturers weren’t geared up to make antitank and antiaircraft arms at a wartime pace

Returning to a point (I) made a few threads back, this is where you realise what it means to be "first world". The speed at which such countries is (and was in WW2) adapt and upscale production for war is incredible.

I can't recommend uktvplay.uktv.co.uk/shows/war-factories/watch-online/6199882835001 highly enough.

The ultimate bottleneck is not men or material. It's political will. And on that note I expect a subtle (well actually not so subtle) move to move the blame for everything bad of late onto Putin. Eventually to the stage (as with Hitler) that your granny wants to punch his lights out. Which is sort of what you need to go to war.

#thinkingoutloud

ClaudineClare · 24/03/2022 08:48

From The Guardian

Boris Johnson has said Vladimir Putin has already “crossed a red line” that merits ramping up the west’s response, suggesting allies must send new weapons to Ukraine, expand curbs on international payments and target Russia’s gold reserves

Overnight, Johnson said the UK would double the number of British missiles sent to Ukraine by sending an additional 6,000, and send an extra £25m to Ukraine’s military, and officials suggested he would entreat European leaders to rapidly increase lethal aid

Rest of article here:
www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/mar/24/west-could-target-russia-gold-reserves-over-ukraine-says-boris-johnson

TargusEasting · 24/03/2022 08:49

[quote PestorPeston]There are reports that the Russian landing warship Orsk, docked in the port, is on fire.
Unconfirmed
twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1506901057594605580?s=20&t=zpQ3gtv-1GhERg88dRYfrQ[/quote]
I went to check to vessel spec on Wikipedia and various pages had already been updated for this. News really does travel fast !!

ClaudineClare · 24/03/2022 08:51

And a lot of my thinking recently has been along the lines of why have I avoided getting this emotionally preoccupied with Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen? Iraq and Palestine I've lost some sleep over and I'm trying to figure out why I've been so selective. I've read comments in recent weeks suggesting it's racism

This is a very good article about this issue.

myblackface.wordpress.com/2022/03/16/why-is-it-always-about-race-with-you-people/

notimagain · 24/03/2022 08:51

@namitynamechange

Much as it galls me, I think in some ways Johnson has been proved right on the tanks thing. We are seeing million dollar tanks being taken out with hand held Javelins and Singers that cost a tiny fraction of their price and can be operated effectively by people with a few hours training.

I’ll defer to those who wore green on this one but I think there needs to be care taken with that line of thought…(but BTW for info a Stinger would barely scratch the paint on a tank, it’s an anti-aircraft weapon)..

Many many elsewhere are of the opinion is that all that this aspect of this conflict shows is that what we now know are fairly out dated tanks by modern standards (e.g. poor top armour, poor ammunition stowage amongst other things) operated badly, for example and amongst other things without a coordinated proper infantry screen and possibly also attack helicopter coverage are vulnerable to attack from determined infantry with the current generation of light weight anti-tank weapons.

There’s a worry that if the Russian eventually go home, possibly with captured western ordnance, and think this over and rebuild…..

Be interested in the POV of anybody here with relevant expertise…