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Ukraine-invasion-part-15

999 replies

Ijsbear · 20/03/2022 16:14

Next part.

OP posts:
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15
Goldenbear · 21/03/2022 11:28

I don't understand RTB why you think people haven't seen or read the same information as you? People aren't referencing because maybe they don’t have time, especially if they work. That's not to say your stuff isn't informative but this a chat thread as someone pointed out to me. The thread police seem to come out in full defense mode if you dare to offer a different opinion to dominant posters on here. This thread was helpful at first but it just becomes an echo chamber, if those posters that want to discuss the various outcomes of different trajectories are dismissed as anxiety ridden and self absorbed.

NewYearEveryYear · 21/03/2022 11:30

@Abra1d1 you just expressed what I was thinking with a greater clarity than I could muster.

I'm going to jot down some of my thinking below... as much for myself as as anyone. All opinion only.

China:

Way back when I used to run a company, we had three directors. Me and two others. Two of us were forthright and often went head-to-head on various topics... the third was neutral.

To the outside observer, the third was the least dominant in the group.

But we knew, the person who was neutral in debates, often got to cast the deciding vote.

This is where China are right now - the neutral third. Knowing that their neutrality allows Russia and the West to tire each other out, and that if and when they step in, they get to cast the deciding vote.

But I don't believe that China want a global war. Based on their objective of financial dominance.

Global War:

Nobody wants mutually assured destruction (not even Putin).

Nobody wants a war on all fronts (not even Putin).

But Putin wants what he wants - reunification of either the Soviet Empire or USSR. We're not sure which yet.

And Xi wants what he wants - global financial dominance, and probably Taiwan.

And 'the West' want what they want - an easy life, ongoing Western dominance of the world markets.

I believe that as long as Putin is aiming for a reunification of the USSR NATO will let him, if he starts making an Empire-play, NATO will get involved militarily.

What Now?

The question is then, do we simply sacrifice Ukraine... and later Moldova (?), and then an ever-increasing ring of countries around Russia, or do we act?

For me, we should have acted much, much sooner... in the early 2000's, certainly in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea.

What impact would acting now make? We don't know, we don't know what is brinksmanship vs. a real threat. Because we've never taken Putin on as a real enemy. He could be all bluster. We simply don't know.

The words that Putin uses

Within days of the war starting Putin warned of 'consequences that you've never encountered in your history' - alluding to nuclear weapons.

Then the Russian army spent some time attacking nuclear power sites. One of the first stops was the capture of Chernobyl. In the West 'Chernobyl' is a word that is etched in the minds of anyone alive in the '80's and is synonymous with 'disaster'.

Then Lavrov mentioned WWIII will 'of course be nuclear'.

Then Russia launched some hypersonic missiles (known to be compatible with traditional or nuclear payload).

Every step Putin has chosen to associate his actions with the word 'nuclear' - these are words chosen to create fear.

Fear as a weapon:

We are all afraid, in various ways, to various extents, and about various outcomes.

My deepest fear is that people are evacuating Ukraine to find safety in other countries, and yet maybe nowhere will be safe for any of us.

Remember, Putin wants us to be afraid, even our own leaders want us to be afraid.

Scared people are more likely to be compliant (though naturally, there are some people for whom fear invokes rage, resistance and action, there are many of us in whom it provokes acquiescence).

Onceuponatimeinalandfaraway · 21/03/2022 11:32

@RedToothBrush yes, that’s exactly what I was trying to say. The pp had accused you of only using Twitter as a source and that wasn’t correct. And imo there was nothing out there about your post.

Yes it seems some people either can’t read, can’t be bothered to read or are just looking for excuses to pick arguments. Please carry on as you have been.

RedToothBrush · 21/03/2022 11:33

Natasha Bertrand @NatashaBertrand
AP journalists say they were being hunted down by Russia in Mariupol. "They had a list of names, including ours, and they were closing in. We had been documenting the siege by Russian troops...and were the only international journalists left in the city.

apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-edf7240a9d990e7e3e32f82ca351dede
We witnessed Mariupol's agony and fled a Russian Hitlist

We had been documenting the siege of the Ukrainian city by Russian troops for more than two weeks and were the only international journalists left in the city. We were reporting inside the hospital when gunmen began stalking the corridors. Surgeons gave us white scrubs to wear as camouflage.

Suddenly at dawn, a dozen soldiers burst in: “Where are the journalists, for fuck’s sake?”

I looked at their armbands, blue for Ukraine, and tried to calculate the odds that they were Russians in disguise. I stepped forward to identify myself. “We’re here to get you out,” they said.

and

We reached an entryway, and armored cars whisked us to a darkened basement. Only then did we learn from a policeman we knew why the Ukrainians had risked the lives of soldiers to extract us from the hospital.

“If they catch you, they will get you on camera and they will make you say that everything you filmed is a lie,” he said. “All your efforts and everything you have done in Mariupol will be in vain.”

The officer, who had once begged us to show the world his dying city, now pleaded with us to go. He nudged us toward the thousands of battered cars preparing to leave Mariupol.

It was March 15. We had no idea if we would make it out alive.

and

One bomb at a time, the Russians cut electricity, water, food supplies and finally, crucially, the cell phone, radio and television towers. The few other journalists in the city got out before the last connections were gone and a full blockade settled in.

The absence of information in a blockade accomplishes two goals.

Chaos is the first. People don’t know what’s going on, and they panic. At first I couldn’t understand why Mariupol fell apart so quickly. Now I know it was because of the lack of communication.

Impunity is the second goal. With no information coming out of a city, no pictures of demolished buildings and dying children, the Russian forces could do whatever they wanted. If not for us, there would be nothing.

That’s why we took such risks to be able to send the world what we saw, and that’s what made Russia angry enough to hunt us down.

I have never, ever felt that breaking the silence was so important.

and

Everybody was asking, please tell us when the war will be over. I had no answer.

Every single day, there would be a rumor that the Ukrainian army was going to come to break through the siege. But no one came.

and

We watched smoke rise from a maternity hospital. When we arrived, emergency workers were still pulling bloodied pregnant women from the ruins.

Our batteries were almost out of juice, and we had no connection to send the images. Curfew was minutes away. A police officer overheard us talking about how to get news of the hospital bombing out.

“This will change the course of the war,” he said. He took us to a power source and an internet connection.

We had recorded so many dead people and dead children, an endless line. I didn’t understand why he thought still more deaths could change anything.

I was wrong.

and

By this time, no Ukrainian radio or TV signal was working in Mariupol. The only radio you could catch broadcast twisted Russian lies — that Ukrainians were holding Mariupol hostage, shooting at buildings, developing chemical weapons. The propaganda was so strong that some people we talked to believed it despite the evidence of their own eyes.

and

We crammed into a Hyundai with a family of three and pulled into a 5-kilometer-long traffic jam out of the city. Around 30,000 people made it out of Mariupol that day — so many that Russian soldiers had no time to look closely into cars with windows covered with flapping bits of plastic.

and

People were nervous. They were fighting, screaming at each other. Every minute there was an airplane or airstrike. The ground shook.

We crossed 15 Russian checkpoints. At each, the mother sitting in the front of our car would pray furiously, loud enough for us to hear.

and

As we pulled up to the sixteenth checkpoint, we heard voices. Ukrainian voices. I felt an overwhelming relief. The mother in the front of the car burst into tears. We were out.

We were the last journalists in Mariupol. Now there are none.

Please take the time to read the whole thing rather than just my edits.

They left on the 15th. Its now the 21st.

As we drove through them — the third, the tenth, the 15th, all manned with soldiers with heavy weapons — my hopes that Mariupol was going to survive were fading. I understood that just to reach the city, the Ukrainian army would have to break through so much ground. And it wasn’t going to happen.

The message was constantly repeated, in Soviet style: Mariupol is surrounded. Surrender your weapons.

MarshaBradyo · 21/03/2022 11:34

For me, we should have acted much, much sooner... in the early 2000's, certainly in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea.

Could you say more on what this would have been?

And whether it would have expedited or deterred the outcome we are seeing now

StarryGazeyEyes · 21/03/2022 11:35

I think it's generally pretty clear which posters are engaging in critical thinking, considered analysis and provide links to sources. Those posters are as entitled as anyone to express personal opinions and interpretations. I can understand why some might not always agree with them, but can only wonder why they are being held to a higher standard than other posters. It's almost as if some would prefer there not to be intelligent, well sourced, well argued posts. If the misery being inflicted on an entire country is too traumatising for someone sat in their safe, comfy home to read about, then stop making it all about you, count your blessings and don't bloody read it.

ClaudineClare · 21/03/2022 11:37

[quote MrsLargeEmbodied]apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-edf7240a9d990e7e3e32f82ca351dede[/quote]
That is horrific.

MrsLargeEmbodied · 21/03/2022 11:37

stop the thread police

it is shambolic

blueshoes · 21/03/2022 11:41

Redtoothbrush ignore the people who only look for soundbites and their trigger buzzwords and can only read posts that are soundbites, whilst ignoring all the more fulsome information that you have posted from more primary sources.

Please keep posting, how long the cut-and-paste. I find your sign-posting valuable. It helps me to know, even if I feel helpless for the residents of Mariupol and other cities that are being bombarded.

They don't want a Russian occupation. Not sure if people understand the horrors of an occupation. My parents and grandparents lived through the Japanese occupation. I understand the choice of dying in the open in freedom than being tortured in secret.

RedToothBrush · 21/03/2022 11:43

There seems to be some pretty distressing video footage coming in of Russians firing into unarmed crowds of protesters in occupied Kherson this morning.

Previously I've footage of seen warning shots fired (a good week or so again). I've see groups of protesters blocking Russian military vehicles in the last couple of days. Then yesterday there started to be footage of arrests and people being kicked on the ground by Russian soliders. Then this today.

So it looks like a gradual stepping up of violence and lack of patience from the Russians as they struggle to take control.

One of the Russian puppet government officials in Kherson was murdered yesterday too.

It looks like things are starting to turn very nasty there too.

NewYearEveryYear · 21/03/2022 11:44

@MarshaBradyo

For me, we should have acted much, much sooner... in the early 2000's, certainly in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea.

Could you say more on what this would have been?

And whether it would have expedited or deterred the outcome we are seeing now

I don't know exactly what NATO should have done, but it was an illegal annexation, so I believe that there should have been a legal response to it.

As this article points out: foreignpolicy.com/2014/03/18/wheres-natos-strong-response-to-russias-invasion-of-crimea/

Putin knew that sanctions are temporary, whereas the strategic gains from annexing Crimea are long term.

From a long termist point of view (and bearing in mind that Putin, like many autocrats is considered to be a long termist) - the main response we should have made is to remove our reliance on Russian fuel. But that goes against the West's urge to have an easy life, and maintain our dominance in the global markets.

NewYearEveryYear · 21/03/2022 11:46

@MarshaBradyo in terms of whether it would have expedited or deterred.

Military force may have expedited.
Financial force may have deterred.

RedToothBrush · 21/03/2022 11:47

Jake Cordell @JakeCordell
Moscow's largest airport, Sheremetyevo is furloughing 40% of its staff - around 7k employees - cutting their pay by a third. Russia only has direct flights with a dozen or so countries these days after unprecedented airspace bans have crippled the aviation industry

AgnesWestern · 21/03/2022 11:48

@NewYearEveryYear

I completely agree with this post.

MarshaBradyo · 21/03/2022 11:50

[quote NewYearEveryYear]@MarshaBradyo in terms of whether it would have expedited or deterred.

Military force may have expedited.
Financial force may have deterred.[/quote]
Interesting and I appreciate the clarity

Will read the article thanks, you’ve made me consider further on earlier intervention

Ijsbear · 21/03/2022 11:55

@RedToothBrush

I'm deeply afraid they will literally kill/deport 90% of Mariupol population either through shelling, siege tactics or outright killing. So so hope I'm wrong. But its strategic location is so important they are bound to want it and if the Ukrainians are too much trouble, it's easier to kill them and rebuild the useful port facilities.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 21/03/2022 11:56

Max Fras @maxfras
This morning, 🇷🇺 Dmitry Medvedev decided to post a lengthy letter 🇵🇱 "On Poland" - it is a curious mix of Soviet and pan-Slavic mythology with mockery, dire criticism and veiled threats against Poland - here are the key points

Morawiecki, Kaczynski and Czech/Slovenian PM trip to Kyiv was 'like Lenin's trip in a German-funded armoured train', promised Zelensky friendship - but 'lied, of course'

Poland suffers from 'long-term, pathological Russophobia' and does not mind its cost 'if the shed burnt down, let the house burn down too'

Poland (and Polish propaganda) - the most vicious, vulgar and shrill critic of Russia - 'Community of political idiots'.

Poland forgets Soviet Army liberated it from Nazi occupation - instead, Soviet 'occupation' is equated with Nazism - this is a deceitful and disgusting rhetoric

Yet, there are no anti-Polish sentiments in Russia - quite the opposite, Russians have reacted with 'an outburst of sympathy and compassion' to Kaczynski's plane crash in Smolensk, and Russia declared a day of mourning to honour the victims [LOLZ]

Later, during my visits to Poland, I [Medvedev] became convinced that Russia and Poland face no obstacles to improving relations (...) However, Poland's elites, led by Kaczynski ('no.2'), controlled by the American masters, did everything to block the path to normalisation

The interests of the citizens of Poland have been sacrificed due to Russophobia of 'mediocre politicians' and their 'puppeteers from across the ocean' with clear signs of senile insanity (sic!).

[Poland's] decision to abandon the purchase of Russian gas, oil and coal and the opposition to Nord Stream 2 have already caused serious damage to the economy of this country. Now it will only get worse.

But now it is much more important for the vassal Polish elites to swear allegiance to their overlords - USA - than to help their own citizens, so they will constantly fan the fire of hatred for the enemy - Russia

Economic cooperation with Russia is beneficial for the Poles, human ties are indispensable, and cultural and scientific exchange between the birthplaces of Pushkin and Mickiewicz, Tchaikovsky and Chopin, Lomonosov and Copernicus is vital.

Medvedev's grand finale: and most likely, Poles will make the right choice to cooperate with Russia - on their own, without prompting and pressure from overseas elites suffering from dementia.

EOT, I need to wash my eyes with bleach

Just finished vomiting over this, here's the original should anyone need it:
t.me/medvedev_telegram/11

The above can be verified as being an accurate translation btw.

mids2019 · 21/03/2022 12:03

I am thinking of the me do a angle here and how long in reality our media will continue to prioritise the war of lasts for weeks, months or years? We seem to have a relatively short attention span in the 21st century and do we need to ensure that the Ukraine conflict is not pushed down the news list as so many other conflicts inevitably are?

My impression from the news is that this could become a very bitter and bloody war of attrition now with a very depressing humanitarian dimension and this is going to be a challenge for journalism in the future. We may now unfortunatly have to face nightly stories of new atrocities and as has been discussed at length militarily limited in terms of intervention.

One thought for the future is that eventually do western countries ever consider a humanitarian intervention? Personally I think it is extremely unlikely but is there a point where public pressure may make this a consideration!

Ijsbear · 21/03/2022 12:06

Well that's right in line with Putin's ability to tell you everything is fine while your house is burned down behind you.

Poles won't be fooled. A lot of them remember Russian rule, and a lot of them are hosting Ukrainians.

I wonder who Medvedev thinks might possibly lap this up. His own folk I suppose.

OP posts:
MagicFox · 21/03/2022 12:11

A long read but this is a transcript with Emma Ashford about US foreign policy using a 'realist perspective'. Thought a lot of this made sense and seemed very balanced, getting to the heart of a lot of the complexities. @shreddednips @RedToothBrush you might have views on this take:

www.nytimes.com/2022/03/18/podcasts/transcript-ezra-klein-interviews-emma-ashford.html

WeAreTheHeroes · 21/03/2022 12:13

Bloody hell. Absolutely blood chilling. I work for a company with a sizeable presence in eastern Europe. A colleague was telling me recently that some of the Polish people he knows reckon Putin has been planning an invasion of Poland for years and seven years ago were saying said he would invade within ten years.

And that article is yet another reminder of Russian interference in the politics of other, sovereign nations.

RedToothBrush · 21/03/2022 12:16

Pippa Crerar @PippaCrerar
NEW: No 10 confirms for first time that the Russian state was behind hoax calls to Ben Wallace and Priti Patel last week. Unsuccessful attempt also made to contact Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries.

PM's spox says it's "straight from the Kremlin's playbook" to issue "string of" misinformation and "outright lies" to shift focus from Ukraine war.

Officials understood to be concerned about Russians releasing doctored clips of calls to ministers.

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 21/03/2022 12:19

So the Poles also need liberating from their democraticly elected government. They're right, he's not going to stop at Ukraine.

Bluebellsunderthetrees · 21/03/2022 12:21

@forinborin It had been reported here quite a lot (previous to the invasion) that language had become a flashpoint of sorts. So that is why people might think it
www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-parliament-language-idUSKCN1S111N
www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210401-new-law-stokes-ukraine-language-tensions
www.hrw.org/news/2022/01/19/new-language-requirement-raises-concerns-ukraine

I used to occasionally read the Kiev Post and there was some controversy about it - changing the language and sacking journalists www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/08/ukrainian-english-language-newspaper-kyiv-post-suspends-publication