@Ijsbear
I think that the world just won't be safe with Putin around. He is too good at creating dissent and strife, and lives, and good quality of live, are meaningless to him.
I think a living Putin's hatred now of the west will run very deep and he'll be bent on doing as much damage as he can, however he can. That's a lot when you look at what he's already done, and some people will always want his money.
Putin is radicalising Russians.
Sadly we understand the effects of radicalisation and what that can lead to.
I actually feel sorry for many Russians who have fled or are long established in the West, especially given rising anger with Russia but there's a potential security problem here too. I don't think it can be ignored.
When I pointed out that you can't contain an anti-purity spiral, you have to consider how this might manifest. Competitive loyalists determined to show their worth. Often those with nothing to lose. There are numerous ways for it to manifest.
Do these need to be expensive to be harmful to western countries? Do they need to be directly state sanctioned?
Someone up thread was bleating about how it doesn't affect us. Thats just outright blind stupidity.
Cyber security really bothers me. We know how North Korea has engaged in widespread crimes to illicit money to fund its nuclear program. It does not have to be state sanctioned either. Especially if you have a bunch of desperate people who can find work. Given people turned to gaming in Venezuela at one point because it paid better than salaried work. So we have at least two examples and we already know enough about troll farms in Russia.
People who have no other way to feed themselves or their family will do awful things merely to survive.
I don't know that this aspect of whats happening is being properly grasped.
I know people will be scared by the prospect. We should be, because thats what drives action to minimise it by understanding the risks. But I do think its an inevitability we will see this kind of spillover even if Ukraine wins and pushes Russians out and has a 'happy ending' peace settlement.
We are locked into this. The degree of fallout from this is what we have to be thinking about managing.
Putin will drive it for as long as he is around. But it will linger past him.
When Putin goes, if there is no clear successor the usual laws of political vacuums apply. We could just see another person pop up. Or we could see a couple of factions rise up and proceed to try and beat the shit out of each other. Possibly with big fuck off weapons. Or we could see a popular uprising. The popular uprising is not the most likely because the Russian system of intimidation and control is mafia like. It could happen but I wouldn't say its the most likely option. That presents continuation of this mindset or internal conflict as more likely.
That probably going to mean Russian is a real geopolitical issue for generations now.