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Ukrainian invasion part 13

999 replies

Alexandra2001 · 15/03/2022 07:40

Seems to be required.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
18
Alexandra2001 · 16/03/2022 15:25

Its a sound bite solution for politicians who don't know what the fuck they are talking about, but the public will appreciate it
Long and short of it is, it won't help the Ukrainians. When the Ukrainians are saying they need MiGs, its for a reason. They know the battle. Listen to the Ukrainians not politicians in the US or Europe

Do you have in mind Zelenskyy? as its the Ukrainians that are asking for a NFZ, few if any Western politicians are.
I think they have aimed demands very high, knowing they wont get a NFZ but really want more drones/air defence etc etc.

Hopefully the 'West can get these too them before its too late...

Russia isn't going to stop as short of capitulation, there is nothing Putin can go back to the Russian people with (nor his power base) that will justify the economic damage to Russia, the destruction and deaths he has caused.

OP posts:
toastfiend · 16/03/2022 15:26

@freedles

Really unnerving that the nato Russia deconfliction hotline isn’t working because Russia won’t respond.
I don't believe it was ever working - don't confuse it with the US/Russia hotline as, from reading the article I think you're referencing it sounds like they're 2 different things.

The US have one established that they've tested and confirm is working. NATO have tried to establish one bit have been unable to do so due to a lack of response from Russia - that's how I'm reading the article, anyway.

freedles · 16/03/2022 15:32

Yeah that is true - You would hope that the US hotline communications would step in if there was any kind of situation

toastfiend · 16/03/2022 15:32

It also states that NATO have written letters so this does sound rather like an attempt to open lines of communication, rather than emergency attempts at communication via an existing hotline that's no longer being responded to, which I'd suggest would be much more concerning than the actual situation.

Russia not responding to NATO directly isn't a great surprise really, I wouldn't have thought. Putin evidently hates NATO. They're obviously willing to keep some kind of communication open with a major NATO state, though, if the hotline with the US is working.

FionaMacCool · 16/03/2022 15:38

@RedToothBrush

It means we are fucked cos the only way Putin's Russia survives is by going totalitarian fascist. And thats in progress.

WWII was born from an aggrieved state punished by the Versailles Peace Settlement of WWI. Hitler offered nationalism as the solution out of the poverty that the settlement created.

Bar an internal revolution (unlikely) theres a problem with every settlement thats possible, if Putins survival is only ensured by going totalitarian fascist expansionist.

Thats what is being identified by the countries that bore the brunt of it previously. The countries that ignored it, aren't seeing it.

I think this is the 'Houston we have a problem' moment. And Ive been pondering it a while. China's moves only serve to solidify my worry with it.

We don't solve it by sitting back and leaving Ukraine. We can. But I don't think it protects us anyway unfortunately. All it does is give time for Putin to rebuild and refocus. Whilst we sit on hands and not be prepared.

I think you are on the money here RTB. I watched Zelensky talking to Boris & co. last night (was linked earlier in the thread). He was trying to get that point across....that we are all Ukrainian now.

There is no compromise or reciprocation with a bully... there's only complete capitulation.

Poland, Estonia, Latvia, maybe Finland- they are all aware that Ukraine is not the last stop on the Putin itinerary.

I wish wish wish and hope I am wrong.

DuncinToffee · 16/03/2022 15:48

Zelenskyy via twitter
Ukraine gained a complete victory in its case against Russia at the International Court of Justice. The ICJ ordered to immediately stop the invasion. The order is binding under international law. Russia must comply immediately. Ignoring the order will isolate Russia even further

ESGdance · 16/03/2022 15:48

@SunflowerSmith

If these latest peace talks do amount to something and the invasion was stopped, troops back to Russia etc how quickly would things return to relative normality in Russia? By normality I mean shops reopening and more importantly social media and independent news allowed back, surely once they can access it millions of Russians will be able to see the other side of what is happening, will their media be forever state controlled now.

They won't be able to silence the returning soldiers though who will be telling friends and family what really happened and Russia will also have to explain to thousands of families what happened to their son/husband who has been killed in the invasion.

I expect lifting of sanctions will be part of any ceasefire negotiations.

Will Russian be punished in the medium term for the death and destruction or will sanctions be lifted before they have even bitten.

EsmaCannonball · 16/03/2022 15:50

With Putin in charge there will be no going back to normal for Russia, even if they do withdraw. Aside from Russia's normal not being very pleasant anyway, this is now a new Cold War and we're looking at spending the future coping with how to prevent it becoming a hot war. Putin has a habit of de-escalating these situations, with Western inaction or indifference, re-grouping and coming back stronger. Will crippling Russia's economy make it even more of a rogue state? Will stopping sanctions kick the ball down the road and result in Russia doing something even worse? Will Russia, China, the Middle East and others form alliances that will cushion Russia from Western sanctions after any future action? It could be the case that if Putin isn't finished off now, he might be untouchable in the future.

RedToothBrush · 16/03/2022 15:52

[quote OMGTTC]@freedles I read not long ago that Jake Sullivan (US national security advisor) had spoken to the secretary of Russia’s security council today, so it seems they are still in contact?[/quote]
Jennifer Jacobs JenniferJJacobs (yesterday)
News: As Biden officials worry Putin’s prepping for chemical weapons attack in Ukraine, Jake Sullivan’s seeking a direct conversation with his Russian counterpart Nikolai Patrushev to warn them not to—but no call scheduled yet, I’m told. Last disclosed call between them? Nov. 17.

(1 Hr ago)
Call between Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, and his Russian Nikolai Patrushev, happened this morning, according to officials in both countries. Sullivan had been seeking the call to directly warn the Kremlin not to use chemical weapons, sources said.

NEW: Jake Sullivan urged Moscow to stop attacking Ukraine cities, in phone call with Gen. Patrushev, who US sanctioned Feb. 25. Patrushev told @JakeSullivan46 US should stop supplying Kyiv with weapons. They spoke by phone, not deconfliction line, I'm told

My suspicion: They don't think. They have intelligence.

notimagain · 16/03/2022 15:52

The risks of leaving Ukraine/rump Ukraine neutral and Putin in power have been discussed at length elsewhere for a quite a while.

I have to say of the more extreme suggested solutions to that problem would not meet universal approval….

RedToothBrush · 16/03/2022 15:54

Samuel Ramani @samramani2 (washington post 1hr ago)
The NATO deconfliction hotline was tested today and Russia did not respond

The US deconfliction hotline with Russia works but has not been used in practice

Concerning, especially as the war moves closer to Poland's borders

holliem91 · 16/03/2022 15:55

@FionaMacCool

Sorry, can you explain what this means in simple terms please?

Ijsbear · 16/03/2022 15:56

I am not that despairing. I think that Putin's control is probably iron-tight within Russia and yes the totalitarian state is settling into place but:-

  • I do not think China wants or will tolerate a great deal of extra war. If they do actively start supplying weopons to Russia then that would be a very very bad sign but all signs up to now are that China are working on their own statehood - stability, handling Corona and developing further ties in Africa and economic ties in Europe and the US. Ok China will likely work on becoming more self sufficient and more detached from the West (while still encouraging Western investment inwards, to increase our dependence on them). But all signs up to this date are not that China is hankering for war.
  • I'm sure Putin has his eyes on Poland, Estonia, Latvia etc. But this war has gone very wrong for him and it's going to take him time to get his military back into shape, plus making sure that he can source parts etc. The West won't be selling to Russia while he's in power, I'm sure
  • NATO. It's kept out of things so far but it won't if Poland/other countries are invaded. Putin's aggression has been a total wake up call and no one, no one at all, thinks they can trust him.
  • Democracy is highly damaged by the Russian influence on the US via Trump and the worsening divisions there, the UK's exit from the EU (also Russian-funded) and most of all by the short-sightedness bred by only 4 year terms of office. But the hawks generally in all countries will come into ascendancy, I think. There's going to be a metaphorical shield wall built against Putin.
  • I think that all this has brought a sea-change. Due to one man - Putin - we have to think less in terms of de-escalating stuff and more in terms of making a stand and pushing back against him. Strength is the only thing he respects. He doesn't know how to build, only to destroy.

The world is changing, yes. But I don't think it's hopeless. The pendulum in the West is only swinging back from the peacefulness of the last years since the former Yugoslavia broke up.

We might get more proxy wars, as has happened throughout history and during the last years, but I don't think that the entire world will go up in flames.

Ijsbear · 16/03/2022 16:00

About china, dammit, didn't finish.

If this war shows signs of inflaming too far, I think China will step in to try to cool it more actively. High war in the West is not in their interests.

I do hope Mr Xi looks very carefully at what Putin did to the governance systems in the West though. Bribery, corruption and sewing dissent to weaken goverments is his modus operandi and I don't think he'll give China a free pass there.

RedToothBrush · 16/03/2022 16:01

Theres talk of Putin now escalating in order to deescalate as part of negotiations.

Its plausible.

The fact the deconfliction hotline isn't working is worrying but other lines of communication are clearly open still atm. (Hell Macron has Putin on speed dial to the point I start wondering if they both swiped the correct direction...)

Why the deconfliction line isn't working should make you think. Putin paranoid (doesn't want lower downs talking to America or because theyve already been purged) or because Putin is making a point that he's not interested in deescalation. He wants to put on the pressure instead.

News this afternoon is making me antsy.

To me its probably cos Putin knows he is in a fix on the ground. So other options have to be be considered in order to maintain control.

MarshaBradyo · 16/03/2022 16:02

@Ijsbear

I am not that despairing. I think that Putin's control is probably iron-tight within Russia and yes the totalitarian state is settling into place but:-
  • I do not think China wants or will tolerate a great deal of extra war. If they do actively start supplying weopons to Russia then that would be a very very bad sign but all signs up to now are that China are working on their own statehood - stability, handling Corona and developing further ties in Africa and economic ties in Europe and the US. Ok China will likely work on becoming more self sufficient and more detached from the West (while still encouraging Western investment inwards, to increase our dependence on them). But all signs up to this date are not that China is hankering for war.
  • I'm sure Putin has his eyes on Poland, Estonia, Latvia etc. But this war has gone very wrong for him and it's going to take him time to get his military back into shape, plus making sure that he can source parts etc. The West won't be selling to Russia while he's in power, I'm sure
  • NATO. It's kept out of things so far but it won't if Poland/other countries are invaded. Putin's aggression has been a total wake up call and no one, no one at all, thinks they can trust him.
  • Democracy is highly damaged by the Russian influence on the US via Trump and the worsening divisions there, the UK's exit from the EU (also Russian-funded) and most of all by the short-sightedness bred by only 4 year terms of office. But the hawks generally in all countries will come into ascendancy, I think. There's going to be a metaphorical shield wall built against Putin.
  • I think that all this has brought a sea-change. Due to one man - Putin - we have to think less in terms of de-escalating stuff and more in terms of making a stand and pushing back against him. Strength is the only thing he respects. He doesn't know how to build, only to destroy.

The world is changing, yes. But I don't think it's hopeless. The pendulum in the West is only swinging back from the peacefulness of the last years since the former Yugoslavia broke up.

We might get more proxy wars, as has happened throughout history and during the last years, but I don't think that the entire world will go up in flames.

I haven’t got the insights to do a whole post but I’m on the more hopeful end probably.
shreddednips · 16/03/2022 16:04

@Ijsbear

I am not that despairing. I think that Putin's control is probably iron-tight within Russia and yes the totalitarian state is settling into place but:-
  • I do not think China wants or will tolerate a great deal of extra war. If they do actively start supplying weopons to Russia then that would be a very very bad sign but all signs up to now are that China are working on their own statehood - stability, handling Corona and developing further ties in Africa and economic ties in Europe and the US. Ok China will likely work on becoming more self sufficient and more detached from the West (while still encouraging Western investment inwards, to increase our dependence on them). But all signs up to this date are not that China is hankering for war.
  • I'm sure Putin has his eyes on Poland, Estonia, Latvia etc. But this war has gone very wrong for him and it's going to take him time to get his military back into shape, plus making sure that he can source parts etc. The West won't be selling to Russia while he's in power, I'm sure
  • NATO. It's kept out of things so far but it won't if Poland/other countries are invaded. Putin's aggression has been a total wake up call and no one, no one at all, thinks they can trust him.
  • Democracy is highly damaged by the Russian influence on the US via Trump and the worsening divisions there, the UK's exit from the EU (also Russian-funded) and most of all by the short-sightedness bred by only 4 year terms of office. But the hawks generally in all countries will come into ascendancy, I think. There's going to be a metaphorical shield wall built against Putin.
  • I think that all this has brought a sea-change. Due to one man - Putin - we have to think less in terms of de-escalating stuff and more in terms of making a stand and pushing back against him. Strength is the only thing he respects. He doesn't know how to build, only to destroy.

The world is changing, yes. But I don't think it's hopeless. The pendulum in the West is only swinging back from the peacefulness of the last years since the former Yugoslavia broke up.

We might get more proxy wars, as has happened throughout history and during the last years, but I don't think that the entire world will go up in flames.

Agree with this, much better than I could have put it! I think Putin's intentions are INCREDIBLY sinister and reach far beyond Ukraine, but what he would like to do and what he can do with the resources at his disposal is another matter. My biggest concern is about China's long-term aims, and we're going to have to look very carefully at that.
Yeahthat · 16/03/2022 16:10

@FionaMacCool

It's absolutely the end of any imperial ambitions that Putin had. The scenarios that had previously been looked at for a war in Balkans between NATO and Russia had reached the conclusion that it was unwinnable for Russia. That was without the assumption of the level of incompetence that we've seen from the Russian military (having to go cap in hand to China for ration packs etc), nor that Russia would be operating with a crippled economy.

The only thing Putin has left is his threat to unleash M.A.D. via his nuclear arsenal, like a lunatic wearing a suicide vest.

I think it's also reasonable to assume that China would not support Russia if they attempted to escalate this war.

Tuba437 · 16/03/2022 16:11

Further possible progress on peace talks according to FT

Ukrainian invasion part 13
bluetoile · 16/03/2022 16:11

I agree @Ijsbear and @shreddednips, and think these kind of measured posts are greatly needed. There seems to be a few on here who are taking great delight in being ominous and predicting doom when they know the reaction their words will have.

wonderfullife123 · 16/03/2022 16:11

Agree on desire vs resources. Another resource that Putin does not have is immortality.

RedToothBrush · 16/03/2022 16:12

This is a fascinating article - one of the most detailed ive seen about stuff on the ground. Wall Street Journal

Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof
Russia’s rapid thrust into Voznesensk was meant to showcase its military prowess. Instead, the Ukrainian town dealt Russian forces one of the most humiliating defeats of the war. My report from the battlefield where Russian bodies are still being collected
www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-russia-voznesensk-town-battle-11647444734?st=z24ubrmo2xi9bq1&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

A rapid Russian advance into the strategic southern town of 35,000 people, a gateway to a Ukrainian nuclear power station and pathway to attack Odessa from the back, would have showcased the Russian military’s abilities and severed Ukraine’s key communications lines.

Instead, the two-day battle of Voznesensk, details of which are only now emerging, turned decisively against the Russians. Judging from the destroyed and abandoned armor, Ukrainian forces, which comprised local volunteers and the professional military, eliminated most of a Russian battalion tactical group on March 2 and 3.

The Ukrainian defenders’ performance against a much-better-armed enemy in an overwhelmingly Russian-speaking region was successful in part because of widespread popular support for the Ukrainian cause—one reason the Russian invasion across the country has failed to achieve its principal goals so far. Ukraine on Wednesday said it was launching a counteroffensive on several fronts.

And

Russian survivors of the Voznesensk battle left behind nearly 30 of their 43 tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, multiple-rocket launchers and trucks, as well as a downed Mi-24 attack helicopter, according to Ukrainian officials in the city. The helicopter’s remnants and some pieces of burned-out Russian armor were still scattered around Voznesensk on Tuesday.

Russian forces retreated more than 40 miles to the southeast, where other Ukrainian units have continued pounding them. Some dispersed in nearby forests, where local officials said 10 soldiers have been captured.

“We didn’t have a single tank against them, just rocket-propelled grenades, Javelin missiles and the help of artillery,” said Vadym Dombrovsky, commander of the Ukrainian special-forces reconnaissance group in the area and a Voznesensk resident. “The Russians didn’t expect us to be so strong. It was a surprise for them. If they had taken Voznesensk, they would have cut off the whole south of Ukraine.”

Ukrainian officers estimated that some 100 Russian troops died in Voznesensk, including those whose bodies were taken by retreating Russian troops or burned inside carbonized vehicles. As of Tuesday, 11 dead Russian soldiers were in the railway car turned morgue, with search parties looking for other bodies in nearby forests. Villagers buried some others.

And

“Sometimes, I wish I could put these bodies on a plane and drop them all onto Moscow, so they realize what is happening here,” said Mr. Sokurenko, the funeral director, as he put Tuesday’s fifth Russian cadaver on blue-plastic sheeting inside his van marked “Cargo 200”—Soviet military slang for killed in action. A Ukrainian military explosives specialist accompanied him, because some bodies had been booby trapped.

And

Voznesensk’s fall would have made defending the nuclear plant to the north of here nearly impossible, military officials said.

And

A local woman who agreed to cook for the Russians is now under investigation, said Mr. Dombrovsky. “A traitor—she did it for money,” he said. “I don’t think the village will forgive her and let her live here.”

RagzRebooted · 16/03/2022 16:13

@RedToothBrush

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60749863 Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe has UK passport returned, MP says

She has been detained in Iran for more than five years on spying charges after being arrested there in 2016 while taking her daughter to see her family.

Tulip Siddiq said Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe was still at her family home in Tehran.

The Foreign Office said it would not comment on speculation but had long called for the release of "unfairly detained British nationals in Iran".

Things. Happening. Diplomacy. Iran Again. Why now?

I'm late on this as took a break from the thread yesterday, but my first thought on hearing of her release was that it was clearly war related and Iran are obviously playing some game or another. Trying to look good, to us or somewhere else. Cynical maybe, but there must be reason to do it now after nearly 6 years. Happy ending anyway though, it was so nice to get some good news for a change!
Ijsbear · 16/03/2022 16:14

or because Putin is making a point that he's not interested in deescalation. He wants to put on the pressure instead

That's his modus operandi the whole time. He saw that cornered rat jump for the person's face and learned. In a way he's shaping the world now because there is less grey area. Either we back down and let him take the countries he wants, or we stand up to him. I don't think we will let him take the countries he wants, and if we did he'd simply keep on trying to encourage the rot within the West to weaken us further.

So we have to stand up to him. That indeed implies that we may have to face escalation; but it's not going to be from 0 - Doomsday in one go. It's going to be by steps and he calls the shots becuase we probably have to match those steps, or else he will win. But it will be a dance, I think, and while Doomsday is not entirely off the table, it's much more likely that the dance will end with both sides still alive and glaring at each other from opposite ends of the room.

AgnesWestern · 16/03/2022 16:14

@Tuba437 Ah not so positive this time Sad I hope they’re wrong. Thanks for sharing though.