Ukrainian invasion part 13

[Alexandra2001]

Seems to be required.

Not good about peace talks

Saw this on Twitter:

Turkish foreign minister to visit Russia, Ukraine for peace talks, Erdogan says

ANKARA (Reuters) -Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday he was sending his foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, to Moscow and Kyiv this week as part of Turkey’s mediation efforts to secure a ceasefire in Ukraine.

I suspect Putin is getting a kick out of this quite frankly- never has he had so much of the worlds attention.

I don’t believe he is serious at all about peace talks (but obviously will be extremely pleased to be proved wrong).

Did anyone see the story that the Ukrainian military are claiming to have seen documents that suggest the Russians are planning to raise funds for the army by chopping down Ukraine's forests and selling the wood? So they could already be planning to plunder the country's resources.

This seems quite positive about the talks. So hard to know what to believe.

@StormzyinaTCup

I suspect Putin is getting a kick out of this quite frankly- never has he had so much of the worlds attention.

I don’t believe he is serious at all about peace talks (but obviously will be extremely pleased to be proved wrong).

Think you're right.

He uses words as weopons and there is no good faith behind them.

But I think someone needs to slip Zelensky a sleeping pill. He's human, his body needs rest to function well.

@AgnesWestern

What do we think the increase in military movement is about?

As I've posted, repeatedly, there has been a major exercise ongoing.

Putin won't make peace now unless it absolutely suits a longer term and bigger aim. He has China who is seemingly likely to support him economically and India who is buying Russian stuff.

Unless the whole world was against him and he was facing gigantic internal revolt, he'll keep going.

Someone wondered where Blair was On one of the previous threads. He’s appeared, Sky news is quoting him. I find I agree.
“ In a lengthy post on his thinktank's website, the former prime minister says: "I understand and accept that there is not political support for any direct military engagement by NATO of Russia. But we should be clear-eyed about what Putin is doing. He is using our correct desire not to provoke escalation alongside his willingness to escalate as a bargaining chip against us. When he is threatening NATO, even stoking fears of nuclear conflict, in pursuit of his attempt to topple by force a peaceful nation’s democratically elected president and wage war on its people, there is something incongruous about our repeated reassurance to him that we will not react with force.
"I accept the reasoning behind our stance. But suppose he uses chemical weapons or a tactical nuclear weapon, or tries to destroy Kyiv as he did Aleppo in Syria, without any regard to the loss of civilian life – is it sensible to tell him in advance that whatever he does militarily, we will rule out any form of military response? Maybe that is our position and maybe that is the right position, but continually signalling it, and removing doubt in his mind, is a strange tactic."

@ljsbear I honestly thought the same about slipping Zelenskyy a sleeping pill!

@Ijsbear

Putin won't make peace now unless it absolutely suits a longer term and bigger aim. He has China who is seemingly likely to support him economically and India who is buying Russian stuff.

Unless the whole world was against him and he was facing gigantic internal revolt, he'll keep going.

I very much agree Putin will say one thing and continue to do another for as long as possible..

I think by far the biggest factors in all this are (and I know I am stating the obvious):

1: Can the Ukrainian forces can continue to inflict significant losses on the Russian army,

2: Can the Russian army can continue to suffer that level of attrition,

And

3: Will the Russian Chiefs of Staff be actually willing tell Putin when/if his army is close to becoming ineffective.

But I think someone needs to slip Zelensky a sleeping pill. He's human, his body needs rest to function well

I am sure when he was interviewed on Sky by Alex Crawford, she said his security kept moving him around as much as possible to prevent an attack, so can't imagine it will be safe for him to get a solid seven hours.

I think Zelenskyy looks very, very tired, but not defeated. There was a wry smile, etc. He's doing a really tough job under extraordinary pressures. Unlike Putin, he's neither a sociopath nor a psychopath so it stands to reason that the consequences of this war are weighing heavily on him, plus he's a marked man who the Ukrainian security forces say has survived numerous attempts on his life.

As for negotiations, I can well imagine the teams are trying to find some common ground and a solution that's palatable to both. Doesn't mean their bosses agree, but you need goodwill on both sides to find a positive outcome.

Regarding oil, if we still had more distributed services instead of highly centralised ones, there would be less need for transport. All the emphasis on centralisation has just pushed responsibility for access onto individuals rather than the services which can operate more efficiently collectively. Plus more emphasis on public transport means more efficient use of petrol. It’s not a panacea, but… fgs that’s why they were arranged like that originally. Economies of scale only transferred costs on a social scale, they did not eliminate them.

BBC
Talks continue tomorrow - Ukraine presidential adviser

Ukraine presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak has tweeted to say that negotiations with Russian officials "will continue tomorrow".

He said that "there is certainly room for compromise".

"A very difficult and viscous negotiation process. There are fundamental contradictions. But there is certainly room for compromise. During the break, work in subgroups will be continued," he said.

Stormzy I agree.

I've said many times now I'm not so sure that there is anything more behind this than an old man wanting to be relevent again.
Young mistress, four small children, he was ignored by the duma and now he's showing them and the world whose boss.

Does anyone else live near military bases?

Yes and there is a lot of activity.

Apparently Zelensky is going to speak to congress tomorrow and ask Biden for the MIGs again.

FWIW press release with regard to the start of a fairly standard bi-annual exercise.

www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-armed-forces-join-largest-arctic-exercise-in-30-years

Whilst the Ukrainians have desperately fought tooth and nail, Russia is the better resourced aggressor and is likely to win the war.

If there is any merit in the peace talks (that’s a big if), this is only due to the response of the West and the substantial economic sanctions against Russia. Meanwhile Zelensky is strategically offering to sacrifice NATO membership as a sop to Putin, a way of allowing Putin to save face and to let him claim that he’s ‘won’. But this would mean nothing without the significance and leverage of those sanctions and the fact that Putin now has trouble accessing his ~$500 billion in foreign exchange reserves. It is only the sanctions that may have nudged him to the table.

Though in my current depressed mood, I can’t see him accepting anything less than total annexation of Ukraine and the crushing of any resistance along with a public execution of zelensky. He is so clearly narcissistic that anything less would be anathema to him now.

I imagine when people involved in the negotiations say they're going well, they mean that they're able to speak to each other, they have arranged some working groups and perhaps a bit of progress on smaller issues. We are seeing some humanitarian escapes from Mariupol and Sumy, this is probably something arranged in the talks. They have probably started to differentiate between red lines and areas where there can be movement. As long as they are talking, this is all good.

But while they're talking both sides will be trying to maximize their position so that they are stronger in the talks. So we can expect continued fighting and very hardline rhetoric. It seems contradictory but it's not really.

@Peregrina

Does anyone else live near military bases?

Yes and there is a lot of activity.

Now, we apparently don't. We live in Birmingham on the cusp of am estate, in front of us it is all houses, behind us it is all fields. Every week we here what sounds like gun training. Lots of shots. But we have looked it up, asked many people and they all say they don't think so. But there are definitely drills every week. It isn't cadets as I know someone who is a cadet leader person (cannot remember the word) so she would know. It isn't clay pigeon shooting or farm practice. So I believe there is something close to me...

I don't quite know why people are making such a big thing of Zelensky's NATO comments. He's just stating the bleeding obvious, which has been obvious since 2014, that there is no option of NATO membership as long as there is a conflict with Russia.

I mean it's helpful for him to say it loudly and slowly in the context of negotiations, if it will help Russia save face, but it's just stating reality.

I'm re watching Hamilton and thinking about zelensky. he even looks a little loose the main character.

I wonder if the musical made it to Ukraine?