2: Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues (PART 2)

[WhatsGoingOn2022]

Hi all,
we are not quite at the end of our current thread but getting there quickly, so going to get this set up in anticipation. Really thrilled that we have so many people still involved!

It is the continuation of this thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4497259-Ukraine-and-Russia-Answering-common-questions-and-issues

The aim of the thread is to keep discussion on an informed and detailed footing, avoiding wild speculation and whataboutery which only derail the conversation. Basically, if you can't broadly agree on the following points, this is not the thread for you:

1: states shouldn’t invade democratic states or get a veto over who their government is. Self determinism is important

2: Putin has no right to dictate how millions of people outside of Russia live their lives, or that they should live under repressive regimes

3: Russia has nukes, so does the west, nobody is therefore able to wholesale dictate to the other

4: we are talking here about the Ukraine situation. I don’t come onto threads about e.g. what the US does in Yemen and spew whatabout e.g. Russia in Syria. If you don’t think the people of Ukraine deserve a discussion about THEM then don’t discuss it.

If you don't know much about the topic: do feel free to get involved. But ask specific questions or for critiques of specific sources, please don't just post ill-informed opinion for the sake of it.

When I get a chance I'll put in some links to the common questions again. We have already gone through issues like NATO expansion, role of China in detail, so please do check the prior thread out.

Thanks!

I've posted this on another thread, but I'm posting it here too, as I think it's important to remember...

The thing I hold tight to, is that Putin WANTS us to fear escalation (be it all-out WW III, or whatever), he doesn't have the military might to win against NATO.

If I look back at the news, there's a fairly clear pattern. An escalation, and then a couple of days of plateau, then an escalation, then a couple more days plateau.

The regular grind of escalation is required to keep people scared.

We get used to the plateaus very quickly (humans are more resilient than we expect ourselves to be). So a constant cycle of escalation is the only way to maintain the fear.

In the early stages of this war Putin said that the response to NATO aggression would be 'immediate' this is a lie, it's a lie to make us fear that the worst could happen at any time, and that any escalation could be the last before nuclear holocaust.

If I were a cynic, I'd tell you that even our Western governments proliferate this fear, fear keeps us compliant.

So yes, there is a risk, and yes it IS scary, because it's designed to be scary.

Thanks op!

Good rules but please caveat , no one has the answers on this, the whole world is broadly debating and talking about the same stuff.
Even experts on Putin won't have definitive answers, far from it!
Most MN seem to be educated intelligent poster's so let's treat each other with some respect.
None of us know what level of education, expertise, who we know, at all.

Op o don't think it went into on the others threads.

I'm interested in Roman Abramowitz and the evening standard man.

I don't feel either is a clear cut figure and with his background I can't see how Ra would back Putin here? He's also supposed to be in Israel not Moscow?

Evening standard man, been here since he was 8, dodgy stuff going on within regards to Boris and the house of lords.
MI6 stepping in.
Does anyone suspect he's actually a British asset?

@NewYearEveryYear

I've posted this on another thread, but I'm posting it here too, as I think it's important to remember...

The thing I hold tight to, is that Putin WANTS us to fear escalation (be it all-out WW III, or whatever), he doesn't have the military might to win against NATO.

If I look back at the news, there's a fairly clear pattern. An escalation, and then a couple of days of plateau, then an escalation, then a couple more days plateau.

The regular grind of escalation is required to keep people scared.

We get used to the plateaus very quickly (humans are more resilient than we expect ourselves to be). So a constant cycle of escalation is the only way to maintain the fear.

In the early stages of this war Putin said that the response to NATO aggression would be 'immediate' this is a lie, it's a lie to make us fear that the worst could happen at any time, and that any escalation could be the last before nuclear holocaust.

If I were a cynic, I'd tell you that even our Western governments proliferate this fear, fear keeps us compliant.

So yes, there is a risk, and yes it IS scary, because it's designed to be scary.

@NewYearEveryYear I think this is a great point. The Russian use of the world “nuclear” and the like at times like this is intentionally designed to provoke this kind of reaction: intended to make people go “Russia have nuclear weapons, they’re going to nuke us all, just give Russia whatever they want.”

It’s intentional and it undermines the ability of western countries to help Ukraine negotiate. It means we essentially extend what we would accept from Russia because of a fear they have intentionally sown

Does anyone suspect he's actually a British asset?

Too obvious?

The whole House of Lords thing sounds very dodgy.

Apart from anything else I don’t understand what a 41 year old who inherited his wealth from his father has to offer the lords in terms of expertise and experience (although I know that for many years that was the whole point of the HoL!)

Just wanted to say thank you for this thread and the last, I've not been posting but has been very useful to read.

@missconductusa

Thanks for the Reddit links there are some excellent comments there.
Especially the dummy guide on how to respond to Putin defender's.

Read the last thread and placemarking here.

Thanks, OP.

Please can you tell me if you think wheat will be sown in Ukraine this year?

Thank you for keeping this thread going OP

.

I've learned so much from the last thread so thank you for providing such good quality information in a digestible and verifiable format.

Thank you very much for your thread.

Place marking

Did you see Russian media station discussing how they would invade Poland ? What do you think the chances of this war overflowing across the border ?

I have a question about refugees in the U.K.

If you have a property you normally let out, which requires a mortgage and insurance and on top of that would have a council tax charge and utilities to be paid for, would you still only get £350 towards it?

In other words, would the owner be required to take on almost all the costs on behalf of the refugee?

Thanks OP Superb job with the previous thread as we've repeatedly said, and hopefully this will be a place for a calm, measured discussion. I think it would be sensible to slow the pace down a bit not to overwhelm you. Whilst this is a fast moving situation, we're all only human. I step away regularly, from the news, from speaking to family and friends, from here. It's needed.

@ScrollingLeaves The details are due to be announced tomorrow. I mean, it's very easy to step away and say well these people are in a privileged position in the first place so why should they not cover the cost. Which is one side of the story. But OTOH many people depend on that income and will even more so from next month, of course. I'm not sure what the position is going to be yet, perhaps we will return to this point tomorrow. However, it appears the refugees might be able to access the benefit system - and if so, this might contribute towards these costs?

@ScrollingLeaves

I have a question about refugees in the U.K.

If you have a property you normally let out, which requires a mortgage and insurance and on top of that would have a council tax charge and utilities to be paid for, would you still only get £350 towards it?

In other words, would the owner be required to take on almost all the costs on behalf of the refugee?

I think you would. The government cannot afford to pay high costs and, ultimately, you could be profiting from property value appreciating while they pay the mortgage. £350 would not go far towards housing and living costs so I suspect it will be a contribution towards rather than covering costs

Having said that, I have no real knowledge on that, it's just how I interpreted the article I read earlier, so am happy to stand corrected if others know better

@strawberriesarenot

Please can you tell me if you think wheat will be sown in Ukraine this year?

Yes as I understand it much work and the essentials of the economy is continuing in Ukraine, but we would be looking at much reduced outputs and workforce. There will be wheat grown but in reduced amounts-some farmers will join as fighters, a lot of land will be unsafe, a lot of crops will be destroyed. I don't think it's possible at this time to create any accurate estimates of just how extreme the impact will be in Ukraine. We also have to remember that Russia appears to be trying to put export bans on much of their produce, which could mean two major producers greatly reduced.

Just place marking here while I pop off and read the first thread

Placemarking

Pm

Thanks for new thread.

Hope everyone is holding up ok.

@WeddingHangover

Did you see Russian media station discussing how they would invade Poland ? What do you think the chances of this war overflowing across the border ?

Yes I saw this, incredibly concerning. They will get messaging from above so it is likely this is something they have been given.

The bombing so close to Poland's border today is an attempt to send a similar signal, or at least clearly state they are now going right up to the lines. Opening the possibility for an error that is a direct NATO attack. Or stating that they are keeping such a move on the table.

While I would still say this is not a likely outcome or a course Russia is confirmed on at this point, it's not a great signal.