2: Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues (PART 2)

[WhatsGoingOn2022]

Hi all,
we are not quite at the end of our current thread but getting there quickly, so going to get this set up in anticipation. Really thrilled that we have so many people still involved!

It is the continuation of this thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4497259-Ukraine-and-Russia-Answering-common-questions-and-issues

The aim of the thread is to keep discussion on an informed and detailed footing, avoiding wild speculation and whataboutery which only derail the conversation. Basically, if you can't broadly agree on the following points, this is not the thread for you:

1: states shouldn’t invade democratic states or get a veto over who their government is. Self determinism is important

2: Putin has no right to dictate how millions of people outside of Russia live their lives, or that they should live under repressive regimes

3: Russia has nukes, so does the west, nobody is therefore able to wholesale dictate to the other

4: we are talking here about the Ukraine situation. I don’t come onto threads about e.g. what the US does in Yemen and spew whatabout e.g. Russia in Syria. If you don’t think the people of Ukraine deserve a discussion about THEM then don’t discuss it.

If you don't know much about the topic: do feel free to get involved. But ask specific questions or for critiques of specific sources, please don't just post ill-informed opinion for the sake of it.

When I get a chance I'll put in some links to the common questions again. We have already gone through issues like NATO expansion, role of China in detail, so please do check the prior thread out.

Thanks!

@Helocariad

is China more dependent of selling to the West or is the West more dependent on buying from them?

Good point.

Separation , sanctions on China would be extraordinarily difficult.
On every level

My question:

I've heard commentators say that the USA/ NATO/ West know they can't win a land war against Russia.

Is this so? And if it is so - then why?

Size. Climate

Have finally caught up with thread 1, super helpful, thank you @WhatsGoingOn2022 @Aristalese et al!

What’s the latest mood coming out of the talks?

Ultimate fool

Where have you heard that Said? I've only heard to the contrary.
We out number Russia in every way.
However what allies may send troops and weapons I don't know

Ljsbear

In spite of their issues they retain/remain the most powerful and innovative economy in the world and I can't see that changing any time soon.
They may even benefit from the intellectual brain drain from Moscow/ Russia.

Following

Is anyone really hoping on the fact the talks seemed slightly positive in that Ukraine might not join NATO and talks were good, is their a possibility that an agreement could be made soon and we can de escalate the start of ww3!? Fingers crossed!

@Alphavilla

So do you feel WWIII is inevitable? If so is nuclear war inevitable? Shall I bother going to work tomorrow? Or booking this year's holiday? I'm really scared.

Please don't be scared the chances of this developing into a nuclear war are currently extremely extremely unlikely. NATO wisely seems determined to stay out of this conflict and peace negotiations seem to be going better - there seems to be positive news on this one day and negative the next but the overall direction is positive.

All that said we should clearly do everything we possibly can to not increase the risk or chances of a nuclear war. This includes NATO definitely not agreeing to Ukrainian demands for a no fly zone, definitely not agreeing to supply them with Polish MIG 29s, keeping communications going and the West supporting peace initiatives.

I realise that all this sounds fairly logical but we need to careful of those in the West that for example support a no fly zone policy without understanding what the dangerous consequences of that policy would be.

The worry is not the west pushing the button, but Putin concocting a 'reason' the west are threat and he pushes the button. With misinformation (lies) being the weapon of choice in today's warfare what chance do genuine nations have of defending truth and their countries? Gainsay Russia at your peril.

I'm not aware of any Western country supporting an NFZ over the whole of Ukraine. There have been considerations regarding introducing it over the areas where Western soldiers are present (and have been present regardless of the war), such as training bases in Western Ukraine, which is a valid reason. However, this has not been put in place and there is and has never been an appetite for an NFZ.

@Alphavilla

The worry is not the west pushing the button, but Putin concocting a 'reason' the west are threat and he pushes the button. With misinformation (lies) being the weapon of choice in today's warfare what chance do genuine nations have of defending truth and their countries? Gainsay Russia at your peril.

This is a risk.

However, IMO this isn't about destroying everything everywhere for VP. He is very well aware that the West would retaliate very quickly. Whilst he would, unfortunately, be willing to destroy Ukrainian cities and civilians to expand, a nuclear war would not be in his interest. Ultimately this would not let him achieve his goal of basking in the glory of the reincarnated Russian Empire. Consequently, my strong belief is that this is highly unlikely.

@Aristalese, thank you, that’s reassuring.

For us, anyway. Sorry, I realise that was a crass comment to make when Ukraine is facing very real conflict.

@Scoobydoooo99

Is anyone really hoping on the fact the talks seemed slightly positive in that Ukraine might not join NATO and talks were good, is their a possibility that an agreement could be made soon and we can de escalate the start of ww3!? Fingers crossed!

It depends on what you consider a WW3. Arguably, we've been in it for some time, considering various non-military campaigns and incidents between Russia and a number of Western countries in recent years. This will probably continue.

In a military sense, it cannot be guaranteed that it won't happen, but as we've discussed in depth earlier, this isn't the intention.

Regarding peace talks, it is clear things really haven't gone to plan for the Russians. This is why they are happening and somewhat progressing in the first place. As I said before, I believe Ukraine will have to be subject to a partition for these talks to succeed and that this peace will unfortunately be temporary. My view is that Russia will regroup and return for what they haven't achieved this time round in few years' time - unless there's a huge political or otherwise change in the world beforehand that would change this direction.

As always, it's sadly the people who pay the highest price, with lives lost, health destroyed and country in ruin that will take years to rebuild and will never be safe. Indescribably sad.

@UltimateFoole

My question:

I've heard commentators say that the USA/ NATO/ West know they can't win a land war against Russia.

Is this so? And if it is so - then why?

Where did you hear this, please?

I don't believe this is factually correct - if you look at what's happening in Ukraine now, it is clear the Russian army isn't as strong as it may have been believed to be and indeed they are struggling on land, with the terrain, supplies, organisation and logistics.

@OMGTTC Don't worry, I know what you meant.

Thank you for all these comments

A bit reassuring as my anxiety is sky high.

Please can some explain about the Polish planes?
I understand why we cannot help with a no fly zone.
I also under why we can't give them planes.
But can't we sell them planes? For a nominal fee?
Russia is buying armoury. Why can't Ukraine?

@strawberriesarenot

Please can some explain about the Polish planes? I understand why we cannot help with a no fly zone. I also under why we can't give them planes. But can't we sell them planes? For a nominal fee? Russia is buying armoury. Why can't Ukraine?

We've discussed this in detail in thread 1, but let me summarise:

US lobbied Poland to provide the MIGs directly to Ukraine and in exchange US offered to replace them with F16s. Poland agreed to give MIGs to Ukraine and called on all its neighbours to join in and offer their MIGs too, however with the agreement of all NATO countries, not as its own decision, since it is a NATO member too and the deal already involved two NATO members (PL and US) and possibly three since the exchange base was a NATO one in Germany. So it wouldn't be sensible for one NATO member to make decisions on its own, especially if they could be risky for that member or even the whole alliance. US was happy to leave Poland to it, but Poland obviously wasn't for that reason. At that point, US pulled the plug on the whole thing as they didn't want to formally approve it.

Thank you.
So Ukraine can't buy arms?

@Aristalese Yes - interesting isn't it.

I forget where I heard it - but definitely from more than one reputable commentator sometime at the end of last week. It was most definitely presented as received wisdom. That's why it piqued my interest.

I can easily speculate as to what they may be getting at:-

-US is most powerful military muscle and would be fighting a long way from home = tough campaign.

-Land battle v air is very different thing and Afghanistan, Iraq have shown difficulties of this type of engagement.
-Lack of public support for the committing large numbers of troops + sustaining casualties.

And - yes - the performance of RU military in Ukraine may mean the received wisdom has now changed.

What I'm after here is an informed view from someone with actual hard knowledge. Opinion is easy to come by.

@strawberriesarenot

Thank you. So Ukraine can't buy arms?

I think the point is they are trained to fly MIGs and MIGs were originally built in USSR, so I believe the only way (possibly?) way to obtain them would be from other countries who have them (and obviously aren't Russia).

There was a poster on the first thread who was very knowledgeable in the army/security issues, I'm not sure if s/he's made her way on to here? I am sure s/he could provide the insight you're looking for @UltimateFoole.

I'm worried by a recent post, I think by the OP, suggesting that we had to be careful that any peace deal did not allow Putin to withdraw and rebuild only to come back bigger and stronger next time. Of course we all want to see peace but, surely, there will be some plans or conditions to ensure he doesn't just saunter off and get away with this?