2: Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues (PART 2)

[WhatsGoingOn2022]

Hi all,
we are not quite at the end of our current thread but getting there quickly, so going to get this set up in anticipation. Really thrilled that we have so many people still involved!

It is the continuation of this thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4497259-Ukraine-and-Russia-Answering-common-questions-and-issues

The aim of the thread is to keep discussion on an informed and detailed footing, avoiding wild speculation and whataboutery which only derail the conversation. Basically, if you can't broadly agree on the following points, this is not the thread for you:

1: states shouldn’t invade democratic states or get a veto over who their government is. Self determinism is important

2: Putin has no right to dictate how millions of people outside of Russia live their lives, or that they should live under repressive regimes

3: Russia has nukes, so does the west, nobody is therefore able to wholesale dictate to the other

4: we are talking here about the Ukraine situation. I don’t come onto threads about e.g. what the US does in Yemen and spew whatabout e.g. Russia in Syria. If you don’t think the people of Ukraine deserve a discussion about THEM then don’t discuss it.

If you don't know much about the topic: do feel free to get involved. But ask specific questions or for critiques of specific sources, please don't just post ill-informed opinion for the sake of it.

When I get a chance I'll put in some links to the common questions again. We have already gone through issues like NATO expansion, role of China in detail, so please do check the prior thread out.

Thanks!

I'm not qualified enough to add to the discussion on this thread but am following.

Ive found the official news source for Russians Tass.com scarily fascinating . Its not just a "spin" on news but completely different narrative (blames ukraine for casualties in escape corridors, praises russia for escape corridors, says russia will only hit strategic buildings, not civilians). I know our news has a degree of bias etc but its scary to see what is being peddled.

Daisy, on the reedit thread ( I think) miss USA Linked there was a summary of what China etc area heating and is accusing Ukraine of exactly what Russia is doing.its telly conceiving!

Convincing

Dreadful typos my keyboard has shrunk I don't know how or Joe to get it back to normal!

How concerned should we be, me in uk am seeing this thinking everyday is it the day Putin nukes us?! I can’t eat, sleep anything! And now I’m sitting here thinking NATO is going to get involved soon because Putin is sending missiles to NATO training bases bordering Poland which takes one MISSILe for NATO to act and he send nukes and it’s game over 😭😭

@Scoobydoooo99

How concerned should we be, me in uk am seeing this thinking everyday is it the day Putin nukes us?! I can’t eat, sleep anything! And now I’m sitting here thinking NATO is going to get involved soon because Putin is sending missiles to NATO training bases bordering Poland which takes one MISSILe for NATO to act and he send nukes and it’s game over 😭😭

Hi, have you read thread no 1? If not yet, you might find it very helpful particularly if you're feeling anxious now. Understanding is helpful in managing anxiety and this topic has been covered there.

How concerned should we be that BJ and other members of the cabinet are security risks?

Carole Cadwalladr's investigations into the Conservative Party's Russian links suggest a web of Russian influence, Lord Lebedev being one.

And there is the £500k a year paid to the Telegraph by the Russian State Press Agency to publish pro-Kremlin articles. Some of this went to BJ who then wrote for the Telegraph.

twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1503116639314841613
twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1502763923812065287

Oh I haven’t, where do I find thread 1 please!

@Scoobydoooo99
Here you are:

Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues | Mumsnet

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4497259-Ukraine-and-Russia-Answering-common-questions-and-issues?pg=1

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60709952.amp

A drone that could be either Ukrainian or Russian fell in Croatia, mostly likely because of a mistake made in the coordinates/ a confusion over similar town names. Luckily just one person was hurt given it landed very near a place where there were a lot of people.

What is worrying is that no NATO warning was sent to Croatia. It was flying over Hungary for enough time for a warning to have been issued. None came.

I saw this on another thread.

Another link relating to the drone in Croatia

amp.abc.net.au/article/100907200

Yes, I saw the drone was covered in foreign press yesterday. I think until the Croatian authorities complete their investigation, it's hard to say more, however foreign articles I read suggested it was Ukrainian (made in USSR) and that it developed a fault, so this would've been an accident. I'm sure they'll publish their findings swiftly.

There are more details in this article:

detwww.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-military-drone-crashes-into-croatian-capital-zagreb

Hi everyone!

An important update re housing refugees - Michael Gove confirmed today that the 'thank you' payment of £350 pcm will not affect benefits or single person council tax discount entitlement.

More details here:

news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-how-uks-refugees-scheme-will-work-how-many-ukrainians-will-come-and-how-you-can-help-12566137

This is very sensible news indeed.

@WhatsGoingOn2022

firstly anything will likely play out slowly. We are talking days but also months, years and decades. In the China context, we are talking plans written in decades. Now is not their planned pinnacle point.

When you say this, I'm just wondering what that plan is! Are we taking economic competition with the west or something sinister in terms of world domination?

I want to know if China, bellarus etc are being deceived by Kremlin misinformation, or are they in on the deception tactic which bears no resemblance to truth? Are they complicit in lies or are they on Russia's side in good faith?

Because I find it incredible that world leaders can blatantly lie to their own and the world for gain. Is it so ingrained that they end up believing the lies themselves?

[quote MagicFox]@WhatsGoingOn2022

firstly anything will likely play out slowly. We are talking days but also months, years and decades. In the China context, we are talking plans written in decades. Now is not their planned pinnacle point.

When you say this, I'm just wondering what that plan is! Are we taking economic competition with the west or something sinister in terms of world domination?[/quote]
On China: Somewhere in between depending on who you ask. E.g. I would recommend the below by Gideon Rachman:

'Russia and China share a deep hostility to America's global power. But they have approached their rivalry with the US in very different ways. China can afford to play a "long game," relying on its economic might to change the balance of power. But Russia, in a weaker economic position, has gambled brute force in Ukraine. Putin's war now threatens Beijing's long gam. Chinese policymakers may have envisaged an eventual rupture in relations with the US, yet thanks to Russia, they now face confrontation with the west on a greatly accelerated timetable.'

There's also some great background on the potential weaknesses with the Chinese economy that could make sanctions on them possible. Also makes the point that China has always checked its power agains that of the US, but this creation of an unprecedented broad coalition against Russia world-wide is not something against which it could compete.

While in the short term any major sanctions on China are virtually unthinkable, 'the idea of an economic severance of China from the west, once unthinkable, is beginning to look plausible.'

And China's plans for Taiwan are now looking militarily far more difficult.

The FT hates if you quote from them, but I believe you can read all their Russia coverage for free. You just need to google this article rather than follow the link:

Xi Jinping faces a fateful decision on Ukraine

www.ft.com/content/75701f79-2edd-4a46-98e7-620473ffabce

@Alphavilla

I want to know if China, bellarus etc are being deceived by Kremlin misinformation, or are they in on the deception tactic which bears no resemblance to truth? Are they complicit in lies or are they on Russia's side in good faith?

Well it depends who exactly you mean when you say e.g. "China." China's leadership, senior levels and propagandists know exactly what they are doing. On a lower level the population are exposed to propaganda but also making a choice to believe this. Russia's allies know precisely what they are dealing with, pretty much the only surprise here is just how poor Russia are militarily. Which is also a shock to Putin (but not most of his advisers): it's a side effect of an absolutist leader that they are not brought bad news. Russia's corruption means military funding doesn't always make it there.

For anyone interested in Belarus there was an very interesting segment about them by their opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, on the BBC ukrainecast podcast www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0bv223y. Essentially she sees Belarus as in the same position as Ukraine was however they chose to give in to Russia rather than fight for their freedom. All dissent in Belarus has been obliterated and they are living under a dictatorship.
www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2021/05/25/why-belarus-is-called-europes-last-dictatorship

Thanks @WhatsGoingOn2022. Apologies if this is a ridiculous question but it comes from a place of waking to a world I didn't realise existed. Re my earlier question about china's long term plans. Does all this mean that we're heading for a hot war with either Russia or China or both eventually whatever we do?

Wonder what impact the woman who held the sign up saying stop the war during a Russian news broadcast may have on viewers? I appreciate that the response will be carefully handled by the propagandists.

Hot war with Russia? Very unlikely but not impossible.

Hot war with China? No. The Chinese value stability over all. They are also absolutely driven to seek respect to make up for the Century of Humiliation (of which the West bears considerable responsibility. Arrogance and humiliating others ... well, "people may forget what you do but they never forget how you made them feel".)

But China will become more powerful yes, but not by major wars except perhaps Taiwan, which it regards as belonging to it.

The USA would be wise to reduce its utterly overwhelming debt and get its house in order - much much better education and sorting out its literacy and health standards for starters - but they won't, so overall their influence will diminish over decades. Probably - I don't have a crystal ball :-)

While in the short term any major sanctions on China are virtually unthinkable, 'the idea of an economic severance of China from the west, once unthinkable, is beginning to look plausible

So much stuff is imported to UK from China so surely sanctions on their products would be difficult?

is China more dependent of selling to the West or is the West more dependent on buying from them?