Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues

[WhatsGoingOn2022]

Hi, I am starting this thread due to the amount of misinformation and speculation I have seen on the boards around what is happening with Russia's war on Ukraine.

While I am by no means a leading specialist, I have a master's degree focusing on the defence and economics aspect of international relations, I work today in politics and have a lot of links in the area. Anything I can't answer I can at least point you to the people who can-- I naturally follow this incredibly closely.

I thought it might be helpful if myself and others with specific knowledge in this area could help to answer any questions you have, on anything from the war, to sanctions, to Russia's actions, to the fallout.

@annathespanner1

I want to know OP - is there any chance the Ukrainians could win?

Hi!!!

This is an interesting one. If you asked anybody 2 weeks ago, they would have told you that Russia has one of the best armies in the world, or at least biggest and best supplied. Commentators have been shocked by how poorly they are performing.

The standard model of attack that they use is the Blitzkrieg, usually associated with WW2. In the simplest terms: send in the airforce to take out their airforce and key military targets, then follow this immediately with an overwhelming wave of tanks. Their airforce utterly flopped (see RUSI link below) and their tanks have been an utter failure due to a combination of logistics and Ukraine having large numbers of anti-tank weapons.

As of the last few hours, US intelligence says that Russia has now sent in 100% of the troops and equipment they had amassed for the invasion. This should never have happened. I've linked to in this thread articles about the failure of their air forces, as well as threads on twitter about mud and poor vehicle maintenance that means vehicles are simply not working. The number of tanks etc that have been captured by the Ukrainians is staggering. Poorly trained Russian soldiers seem to be simply dumping bits of machinery often worth in excess of $25mn an item. I believe I even saw one captured weapon with a value of $65mn. This simply should not happen in war.

One of the ongoing jokes in Ukraine is that their farmers are now one of the most well resourced armies in the world. Likewise they thank the Russian army for arming them so well against Putin!

On cities, Russia is now going for the siege strategy. To understand this, look at Aleppo and at Grozny. It's basically: stop refugees from leaving, target civilian infrastructure (bakers and energy in particular), starve and freeze the people while bombarding them around the clock with heavy artillery. The strategy is arguably illegal under international law as it is based around indiscriminate civilian killing. It's not easy to look at but BBC have a summary of this strategy here: www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60631433

However: Russia has more military equipment and they have already started sending it in (much of it will take days or weeks to arrive). They have started Wagner Group recruitment in Russia, they are also allegedly trying to get Assad to send them Syrians to fight. They also have a whole host of dirty weapons such as chemical weapons that may make an appearance. Belarus, Chechnya and others are also a bit of an unknown at this time.

On Russian air failures: rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-defence-systems/russian-air-force-actually-incapable-complex-air-operations

If you check out Visegrad 24 on twitter, they do very good rolling coverage and generally do so without much gore. Virtually anything else I would link to with rolling coverage unfortunately would be for strong stomaches only.

On whether they can win: the backstop is the Russian economy failing . Yesterday's FSB links said June, today some people have suggested as early as mid April. If Europe can take a harder line and stop Russian energy imports then I think Ukraine would almost definitely be able to hold out. If they don't, I genuinely don't know. And the question of just how dirty Putin is willing to get, we don't know. Plus whether Asian countries will move to undermine western sanctions.

What Russia DOES have is the numbers and power to do long term is partition Ukraine. Mostly taking Donetsk and Luhansk with them whilst pursuing a scorched earth policy a là Clausewitz.
If this was Putin's win, how would that work with the predicted economic collapse in June?

Why would it be in China's interests to support Putin? If I was China, I would dump him.

@Kendodd

Why would it be in China's interests to support Putin? If I was China, I would dump him.

This is a little bit old now but a very good read:

rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/chinas-soft-shoe-ukraine

It feels bizarre to call something 'old' when it was published 4 days ago, but such is the pace of news now!

And a thread:
twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1500080867091353601

I think it was Ben Wallace who said, before it all kicked off, 'There's a whiff of Munich in the air', which said a lot in a few words.

Poorly trained Russian soldiers seem to be simply dumping bits of machinery often worth in excess of $25mn an item.

Is it known what is happening to the Russian soldiers who have dumped all the equipment? Are the Ukrainians rounding them up and keeping them as POWs? That's a problem they could presumably do without. Is the Red Cross involved?

Given that they are said to be so poorly trained, and the Ukrainians get to keep the hardware, would it be stupid to just send them back to Russia, where they could tell people what is really happening in Ukraine? Or could those soldiers be in danger if they were sent back?

Thank you for this thread, OP. I've followed up some of the links, and have been provided with a lot of food for thought.

Adding my thanks for this thread I’m unlikely to contribute but I’ve learned so much and I’m very grateful for the OP’s time and @Aristalese too. There must be many more like just reading the updates

@WhatsGoingOn2022 you said above that some countries might not support sanctions. Which countries and why? Obviously China but where/who else?

@Kendodd

What Russia DOES have is the numbers and power to do long term is partition Ukraine. Mostly taking Donetsk and Luhansk with them whilst pursuing a scorched earth policy a là Clausewitz. If this was Putin's win, how would that work with the predicted economic collapse in June?

If Putin pursues a scorched earth policy in Ukraine which it appears he's doing, the Ukrainian economy and infrastructure will be devastated for several years to come.

A decimated Russian economy could absorb any costs associated with retaining Donetsk and Luhansk. Especially if Putin pulls his troops back to the two breakaway regions, Belarus and into Russia itself. Remember, Donetsk and Luhansk have a pro-Russia majority as does, if I recall correctly, Crimea.

@Kendodd

Why would it be in China's interests to support Putin? If I was China, I would dump him.

China is likely to support Russia.

An article by academics Natasha Kuhrt, King's College London and Marcin Kaczmarski, University of Glasgow argued:

"The deteriorating Sino-American relationship is the main factor in Beijing’s implicit approval of Russia’s attack against Ukraine."

And:

"....Russia’s military attack on Ukraine creates a useful distraction, drawing the US attention away from China, just days after Washington published its newIndo-Pacific strategy."

And, most worryingly, this warning:

"Overall, China has less to lose from supporting Russia’saggressive foreign policythan it had a decade ago."

theconversation.com/ukraine-invasion-why-china-is-more-likely-to-support-russia-than-in-the-past-177854

One must remember that there is tension between the United States and China regarding the South China Sea area. Specifically, China encroaching on their neighbours' own sovereignty around the sea. As a result, United States warships and the UK's Queen Elizabeth carrier regularly patrol the South China Sea.

You can see what's in it for China.

I stayed away for a couple of days because posts on this thread were really getting to me. I saw my name mentioned or implied a few dozen times, questioning my motifs and accusing me of spreading Russian propaganda...

All I can say to this is that it's a great shame that it feels like you cannot voice your opinion without getting attacked. I posted links to various sources. My view is my view and I won't apologise for it, just like the OP and a few other posters freely post their interpretation of current and past events.

Our world views are based on where we grew up and what is surrounding us. Some of us believe that $5bln given to Ukraine through unofficial US funds has no influence on Ukraine's political views and some will see it as an attempt to manipulate.

Some will continue to highlight the cruelty of the Russian army, completely ignoring Azov's atrocities and will downplay the influence it has across Ukraine.

Some will only want to view Putin as mad / ill / power hungry and that is entirely their right. To me, Zelensky is a US puppet, and so is a huge proportion of the Ukrainian government, funded by the $5bln above. They wouldn't dare go against the grain (what happened to one of the Ukrainian negotiators who was shot by the Ukrainian National Guards after returning from the Ukraine/Russia negotiations?).

My view is heavily influenced by growing up and having family in the East of Ukraine, where 75% of the population is Russian speaking, and the genocide we suffered in the last 8 years. For 8 years Ukraine has violently oppressed 3mln of its citizens, so forgive me if I struggle to paint Ukraine as heroes.

I struggle to paint Russia as heroes too. Any country leader that makes a choice to sacrifice lives of civilians and soldiers deserves to go down for war crimes. And in this I include Putin, Zelensky and a long list of politicians from around the world.

I am a strong believer that ultimately any conflict is a failure of diplomacy on both sides. In this case, more than two sides.

I hope Ukraine finds peace soon and whoever leads it through the next few years, protects the interests of the citizens in the West and East of the country in equal measures.

@letmesleep123

@letmesleep123

Whilst I dont necessarily agree with your views, I do strongly believe you have the right to post them provided they are within the MN rules and I am sorry that you felt the need to stop posting because you felt have been accused of spreading pro Russian propaganda.

[quote 1dayatatime]@letmesleep123

Whilst I dont necessarily agree with your views, I do strongly believe you have the right to post them provided they are within the MN rules and I am sorry that you felt the need to stop posting because you felt have been accused of spreading pro Russian propaganda.

[/quote]
Hi sorry but I'm not going to let this stand. I have said multiple times that the posts speaking specially from her background and region were entirely valid and represented a viewpoint shared by some Ukrainians. However certainly not widespread, considering over 90% of Ukrainians support Zelensky.

HOWEVER what is not valid and what I have rightly called out was the claims then thrown in sideways, like that Zelensky was secretly in hiding in west Ukraine and not actually running the country. This is demonstrably false. If you are going to make accusations that are shared only by pro-Putin propaganda, then I will call it out as pro-Putin propaganda. Because that is what it is. Please if you want to make these kind of claims make some effort to back them up.

I don't believe the previous poster believes that either. If she did, I'm sure we would have seen some evidence to back it up. But it is attempted mudslinging that is exactly in keeping with the Kremlin's lines. Therefore I will not allow this sort of misinformation to go unchallenged. If letmesleep does not want me to identify her false posts as false, then she should stop making them. Preventing further untruths from circulating is not an attack.

[quote 1dayatatime]@letmesleep123

Whilst I dont necessarily agree with your views, I do strongly believe you have the right to post them provided they are within the MN rules and I am sorry that you felt the need to stop posting because you felt have been accused of spreading pro Russian propaganda.

[/quote]
@1dayatatime

Thank you! I enjoyed reading your posts. Thank you for trying to bring a different perspective to this thread.

@letmesleep123 I knew you had these links before you even posted this. This was obvious to me, and it explains large parts of your narrative, but I think for the sake of everyone on this thread you should've been clearer on this from early on because of course a view influenced by where your family is from and who they are will be very different to a view of Ukrainians from other parts of the country as well as very different to mine. I do not aim to undermine your family's views or yours at all. But I think in the interest of transparency you ought to have been clear this is the view originating from the East of Ukraine which as you say is largely first language Russian, has a very significant Russian minority and through its ethnic and cultural associations, a different perception on Russia, Ukraine as a nation and on the Soviet era. Which you are entitled to, but be clear on your angle.

Whilst I dont necessarily agree with your views, I do strongly believe you have the right to post them provided they are within the MN rules and I am sorry that you felt the need to stop posting because you felt have been accused of spreading pro Russian propaganda

Hit a table and the scissors will speak up, is most definitely my favourite Polish saying.

@LouisRenault

I think it was Ben Wallace who said, before it all kicked off, 'There's a whiff of Munich in the air', which said a lot in a few words.

Poorly trained Russian soldiers seem to be simply dumping bits of machinery often worth in excess of $25mn an item.

Is it known what is happening to the Russian soldiers who have dumped all the equipment? Are the Ukrainians rounding them up and keeping them as POWs? That's a problem they could presumably do without. Is the Red Cross involved?

Given that they are said to be so poorly trained, and the Ukrainians get to keep the hardware, would it be stupid to just send them back to Russia, where they could tell people what is really happening in Ukraine? Or could those soldiers be in danger if they were sent back?

Thank you for this thread, OP. I've followed up some of the links, and have been provided with a lot of food for thought.

Hi!

Ukraine is keeping POWs, by my understanding there are at least a couple of hundred at this point.

The Russian army at the moment is a real mix. There are senior leaders, young conscripts, and experienced military who fought in eg Georgia.

They can't really send Russian soldiers back to Russia, that would defeat the purpose as they would probably be sent back, rearmed!

This article might interest you, it has some interviews with various Russian army prisoners currently held by Ukraine:
www.nytimes.com/2022/03/05/world/europe/ukraine-russia-soldiers-war.html

[quote Aristalese]@letmesleep123 I knew you had these links before you even posted this. This was obvious to me, and it explains large parts of your narrative, but I think for the sake of everyone on this thread you should've been clearer on this from early on because of course a view influenced by where your family is from and who they are will be very different to a view of Ukrainians from other parts of the country as well as very different to mine. I do not aim to undermine your family's views or yours at all. But I think in the interest of transparency you ought to have been clear this is the view originating from the East of Ukraine which as you say is largely first language Russian, has a very significant Russian minority and through its ethnic and cultural associations, a different perception on Russia, Ukraine as a nation and on the Soviet era. Which you are entitled to, but be clear on your angle.[/quote]
@Aristalese

Fair point. I have never made a secret of my roots though and I have mentioned that I come from Eastern Ukraine in many posts, not sure if they were on this thread.

This does not make me any less Ukrainian though or any less entitled to an opinion. The only thing this highlights, unsurprisingly for those who know the history of the region, is how different the East and the West of Ukraine are.
I fully agree that the EU direction is the one for the West. It should not, though, come with a complete disregard for the East's views.

If there really is no compromise to be had with regards to the EU/Nato for the West, should the East not be entitled to vote for the independence?

Just to bring everyone an update that I'm seeing making the rounds: the US has signalled it is moving closer to stopping their imports of Russian energy, in exchange Russia is making threats to cut off Germany from their energy supplies.

As threats go, it's a bit of a funny one because Russia is highly reliant on these energy exports and will speed up their economic crisis. However, Germany has taken a firm stance against other European states in the last few days, completely refusing to consider cutting down on Russian energy.

I can see why Russia are threatening this (to try to get the US to back down on their energy ban threats) but it's a bit of a mutually assured (at least temporary) economic destruction. It's also exactly what Ukraine and some of their supporters want.

SO: even if Putin does not follow through, with luck this will be a wake up call to Germany that the situation cannot be continued, and that Russia could cut them off at any time. So they need to make alternative plans, regardless of price. Putting them in a stronger position to also pull the plug on Russia! So a bit counterproductive of Putin.

@letmesleep123 I believe you said you originate from Ukraine but I don't recall you openly saying which part (if you have then sorry, but I think I've guessed that from your posts rather than read that). What was missing for UK readers is the context though - and its crucial to understand things.

It doesn't make you less Ukrainian. But as you say, your views are different to the majority of the Ukrainians. On your independence question, you do have a point. I think we can't oversimplify this though. This question is framed also into wider issues of territorial unity, sovereignty, impact on the economy, availability of resources etc. as I'm sure you know very well. And first and foremost, welfare of all people in the relevant regions is key. So it isn't straightforward, right. Independence and stability aren't to be achieved by way of war either, I think we are in agreement on these points. Evolution, not revolution IMO. To make sure I understand it as well, when you say independence, do you mean full independence? From Ukraine and Russia? Because truthfully, I don't think it's achievable and then I'm not sure what you have in mind?

@whatsgoingon2022

I won't attempt to dig out my original post, but I believe I said smth along the lines of " he's been rumored to have left Kyiv". Not sure what you expected me to provide in support of these rumors. GPS coordinates? I don't have direct access to Zelensky, just like you don't have access to Putin. Yet, it does not stop you from speculating what his thoughts and motifs are.

Anyway, this tone of conversation is not enjoyable for either party or the readers. I am not a professional politician and never posted from the angle of "let me tell you the truth on what's going on".

There are better ways of disagreeing than accusing someone of deliberate Kremlin propaganda.

For what it's worth, I do believe your intentions are to educate, and i admire you for how passionate you are about your views. I don't agree with you dismissing any other view that doesn't match yours though. And neither do I agree that highlighting issues within Ukraine automatically equates to being pro Kremlin.

At this point I will excuse myself. Coming to a forum like this, for many, is an attempt to find a platform when they are not feeling heard in real life. It is not meant to make you lose sleep.

@Aristalese

Sorry you lost me on the scissors...

@WhatsGoingOn2022

"1dayatatime
@letmesleep123

"Whilst I dont necessarily agree with your views, I do strongly believe you have the right to post them provided they are within the MN rules and I am sorry that you felt the need to stop posting because you felt have been accused of spreading pro Russian propaganda.


Hi sorry but I'm not going to let this stand. "

+++

Really?? I don't think I said anything particularly offensive there unless you either

a) you disagree that people have the right to post views you might disagree with (provided of course they fit with MN rules) or

b) you disagree that let me sleep felt the need to stop posting because she felt she was I used of spreading pro Russian propaganda. That is her personal interpretation and I don't either of us can say she doesn't feel that way.

I too would like to add my thanks @Aristalese

Hi for those that were looking for up to date lists of companies that are still operating in Russia, I've seen this circulate;

twitter.com/Atamansikka/status/1500915836751691784

Not sure how recent it is but looks roughly right. I think Coke should still be on there though.

Didn't realise quite how many tobacco companies manufacture there