The invasion is a Week Old...Part 7

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Unbelievable. Thread 6 is almost full, to be found here : www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4495271-The-Invasion-is-ongoing-Part-6?pg=1

Still a fascinating and thoughtful set of documentation of our evolving thoughts, fears, questions, analyses and updates. And still a credit to the eyes, ears and knowledge of those on here.

Pinched from one poster on thread 6 whose name I can't recall:

Latest claims from both sides about casualties
Ukraine's army regularly puts out updates on the damage it says it's inflicting on Russian forces, which continue to press on key cities, particularly in the south.

We should stress that the BBC can't verify this information, but the latest update from the General Staff of the Armed Forces says that approximately 9,000 Russian personnel have been killed or wounded.

It also says Ukrainian forces have destroyed:

217 tanks
90 artillery systems
31 helicopters
30 planes or other aircraft
For its part, Russia yesterday for the first time gave a specific number for casualties it had suffered in Ukraine, saying 498 Russian soldiers had died and nearly 1,600 had been wounded.

It said it had killed 2,870 Ukrainian soldiers and "nationalists".

@Booklover3

I’m not understanding what’s going on with that power plant either

Theres a battle. Gunfire. Explosions.

And the nuclear power plant building is on fire.

No biggie.

@minsmum I pray he survives, he looks devastated in this photo !! His poor wife and children too

I'm not getting sound or commentary on that and I'm not at all familiar with power plants. What's going on with it?

The Guardian added the video to their updates earlier with the line: There has been video posted online of tracer fire at Ukraine’s biggest atomic plant, Zaporizhzhya

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tracer_ammunition

Tracer ammunition (tracers) are bullets or cannon-caliber projectiles that are built with a small pyrotechnic charge in their base. When fired, the pyrotechnic composition is ignited by the burning powder and burns very brightly, making the projectile trajectory visible to the naked eye during daylight, and very bright during nighttime firing. This allows the shooter to visually trace the flight path of the projectile and thus make necessary ballistic corrections, without having to confirm projectile impacts and without even using the sights of the weapon. Tracer fire can also be used as a marking tool to signal other shooters to concentrate their fire on a particular target during battle.

When used, tracers are usually loaded as every fifth round in machine gun belts, referred to as four-to-one tracer. Platoon and squad leaders will load some tracer rounds in their magazine or even use solely tracers to mark targets for their soldiers to fire on. Tracers are also sometimes placed two or three rounds from the bottom of magazines to alert shooters that their weapons are almost empty.

@RuRue

And that will also push Putin further too

We can only hope that push propells him outwards from a very high window.

At which point did Trump try and wind up trouble? At the point he was doing well or the one where he'd lost, so had nothing left but to chance a potential coup?

Putin has to jump out that window before he gets to that point. And preferably before there are no more Ukrainians left in Ukraine too.

We are on a tight timeframe with the latter.

@RedToothBrush is there? I’m sorry, I can’t see any of that on my phone. There’s no sound. It’s black and white. It just looked peaceful with a light flickering on and off

^^ I wasn’t trying to be flippant. I honestly thought @Justanotherlurker had posted it in error

The Russian soldiers may well be young, conscripted cannot fodder. However, they are also adult men aiming missiles at children. Cutting off water supplies to a whole city. My sympathy is limited, I’m afraid.

Oh hell I just watched it again and saw an explosion. Can now fully understand the anxiety. Excuse me Covid’s really done a number on me. I feel 100 steps behind

Realistically, the only people who can dispose of Putin are the people closest to him. James Bond is not going to descend clad in a dinner jacket via parachute to the bunker in the Urals and the brave Russian demonstrators, unless their numbers massively swell, won't achieve anything either. That might happen of course, the Russian people are imagined as liking "strong leaders" but they are as intelligent as anyone else and it is hopefully filtering through that Putin has made their country World Pariah.

In regards to someone's post upthread regarding economic sanctions on normal Russians...

In a few days time I am booked to fly to Sharm el Sheikh for a week. (Not a stealth boast, it's relevant and to be honest I don't think it's the best time to be going anywhere). Now, by far the largest number of tourists (until very recently for obvious reasons) coming to Sharm are Russians and Ukrainians. No more can come right now of course but none there can go home either. I read (assuming it's true) that the Egyptian government have said they can remain in their hotels. I don't know who is funding this but...

My point is, a Russian on holiday in Sharm with £10k of roubles in the bank when they left now have c.£300 if they can get it out (based on the rouble having lost 97% of its value. Apologies if my maths are off but it's illustrative) they can't use their visa or MasterCard because they are blocked. Sanctions have hit them hard.

Back home any russian with savings that hasn't managed to withdraw it in foreign currency (if they can spend it) or bought items with a traceable value is also fucked. Saved up for a house or old age? It's all gone. Inflation is at high levels too - maybe it will be a case of buying bread in the morning before it is triple the price in the evening as happened in Germany in the twenties. Being paid daily in cash. Employers will collapse. People will run out of everything. Huge crisis. Russian media will convince everybody possible it's the west to blame of course but won't bail their people out.

Perhaps the ordinary russian on the Moscow omnibus will dig in or perhaps they will revolt in enough numbers to overthrow the leadership. Perhaps the leadership or army will revolt and there will be a coup and Putin will be deposed.

That's my thinking, take with however many pinched of salt as I'm on a Suffolk omnibus so just thinking it out 😁

A lot of things being reported don't make sense to me and I would love if someone who has a better understanding of things could explain them.

Russia appears to have send in a lot of very untrained and unprepared soldiers to Ukraine. They appear to have poor planning and resources. Are apparently getting lost, working off old maps, have little food and fuel and tasks appear to be in poor order and are suffering from poor maintenance.

Is this to test the Ukrainian response before sending in the more elite army?

Is it a strategy to get as many Ukrainian to flee the country now based on the idea that it will be easier to capture territory with less people and resistance?

Is it so the EU will have to fund and provide for these immigrants instead of Russia?

Also, what is the logic behind the Russian convoy of tanks, appearing doing very little and also not organised in a military way? Apparently they are all far too close together and not the standard method of invasion?

Why are the Ukrainian's not bombing them as given their proximity to each other a bomb could take out several together (which is why they would typically be spread out to prevent this?)

Is it all just very poor planning and tactics on both sides or am I missing something?

Obviously, I'm glad it's not escalating as much as one would expect (thank God, it's horrific enough as it is) but I just don't understand some of the stranger aspects of the situation?

@FacebookPhotos I think they have been backed into a corner which they have been too scared to leave but I agree with what you’re saying too !!

@CPL593H

Realistically, the only people who can dispose of Putin are the people closest to him. James Bond is not going to descend clad in a dinner jacket via parachute to the bunker in the Urals and the brave Russian demonstrators, unless their numbers massively swell, won't achieve anything either. That might happen of course, the Russian people are imagined as liking "strong leaders" but they are as intelligent as anyone else and it is hopefully filtering through that Putin has made their country World Pariah.

But its been ordered!

The Queen hasn't had covid at all. She's been dealing with other matters...

@RedToothBrush Oh we wish!

I can't see anything about this but:

What does Putin gain from causing another nuclear catastrophe of his making on his own doorstep?

With his country crippled by sanctions, going nuclear in his backyard would be a whole new level of lunacy.

The Angling Trust welcomes the decision to expel Russian and Belarusian teams from all international angling competitions in response to the invasion of Ukraine and indiscriminate killing of civilians. The decision was taken this week by the Confédération Internationale de la Pêche Sportive (CIPS) – the body that oversees competitive international angling. Angling takes a stand for Ukraine anglingtrust.net/2022/03/02/angling-takes-a-stand-for-ukraine/

Also wizzair and Eurostar are giving free travel to Ukrainians

@StormzyinaTCup I’ve been pondering that one myself.

Is this to test the Ukrainian response before sending in the more elite army?

There is no more elite army.

The VDV got mauled (see thread by @kamilkazani today - its late and i need sleep shortly so wont post). They are the paras. They parachuted in. Which in modern warfare is dumb as shit as you are sitting targets as you come down (they used them cos they thought it would be a cake walk).

Very few serving Russians have seen active service. The number Ive seen is roughly 2000 - 3000 in Syria.

The maintaince was the big issue - which suggests poor knowledge, technique and corruption.

Training is historically dire anyway - what they lack in skill theyve made up for in sheer numbers.

Competent commanders doing do well. Cos in an authoritarian regime they are a threat to their superiors.

If they are conscripting doctors suddenly thats a good sign that wasn't the original plan.

If they are conscripting. And rumour is all under 50s - as in ALL foreigners included - that doesn't suggest elite. Remember thats conscription for a special operation thats definitely not a war.

Who are these mythical elite. Which rock has Putin hidden under to go 'aha at the last min'

Hanlons Razor applies.

As if man hasn’t caused enough devastation on earth now this !! www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-60596449

What does Putin gain from causing another nuclear catastrophe of his making on his own doorstep?

It appears to be gunfire, not a bomb, so I imagine Putin or his generals expect to take over the power plant rather than blow it up. Or terrify everyone with the sheer recklessness of it so that Ukrainians give up.

It is being reported as “Ukrainian government official says smoke visible from Europe's largest nuclear power station” by AP:

twitter.com/ap/status/1499542002790195202?s=21

@StormzyinaTCup

I can't see anything about this but:

What does Putin gain from causing another nuclear catastrophe of his making on his own doorstep?

With his country crippled by sanctions, going nuclear in his backyard would be a whole new level of lunacy.

Think 'family annihilation', by a man, who is done with life and wants to punish / hurt / take everything with him rather than let it live without him.

Like Trump wanted to take down America if he couldn't have it....

...same thing.

An old joke from Poland:

Brzehnev visits Reagan. He asks: how much an average American earns?

• 10,000 Dollars.
• How much he spends on living?
• 1,000 Dollars.
• What he does with the rest?
• The government does not care.

Then Reagan asks: how it is in Russia, what is average pay?

• 100,000 Roubles.
• How much he spends on living?
• 200,000 Roubles.
• Where from he gets the rest?
• The government does not care.

[quote Sunnierdays]As if man hasn’t caused enough devastation on earth now this !! www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-60596449[/quote]
Speaking of space. Did you see how the billion pound government backed oneweb project for our own new satellite system is completely buggered up. It was supposed to launch in a soyuz on friday.

www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/uk-satellite-company-oneweb-suspends-baikonur-launches-2022-03-03/?taid=6220d47118c5730001d427b1&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

Its an absolute fucking disaster for the UK.

@RedToothBrush

Thanks for the reply. When I say elite army, I suppose I meant the permanent army who are trained or anyone that really appears to know what they are doing?

I just assumed they would have to have some. I didn't realise that the level of experienced personnel would be so low given the size of Russia, I guess I just assumed it would be a larger number & a more competent army given it's not today or yesterday Putin decided he wanted to gain more territory.

The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine, the largest of its kind in Europe.

Live stream

m.youtube.com/watch?v=fYUT36YGOh8