The invasion is a Week Old...Part 7

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Unbelievable. Thread 6 is almost full, to be found here : www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4495271-The-Invasion-is-ongoing-Part-6?pg=1

Still a fascinating and thoughtful set of documentation of our evolving thoughts, fears, questions, analyses and updates. And still a credit to the eyes, ears and knowledge of those on here.

Pinched from one poster on thread 6 whose name I can't recall:

Latest claims from both sides about casualties
Ukraine's army regularly puts out updates on the damage it says it's inflicting on Russian forces, which continue to press on key cities, particularly in the south.

We should stress that the BBC can't verify this information, but the latest update from the General Staff of the Armed Forces says that approximately 9,000 Russian personnel have been killed or wounded.

It also says Ukrainian forces have destroyed:

217 tanks
90 artillery systems
31 helicopters
30 planes or other aircraft
For its part, Russia yesterday for the first time gave a specific number for casualties it had suffered in Ukraine, saying 498 Russian soldiers had died and nearly 1,600 had been wounded.

It said it had killed 2,870 Ukrainian soldiers and "nationalists".

I haven’t ( Yet) been a Refugee, but would prefer flight to annihilation.

I haven't either, but I'm the daughter of a refugee who never went back to his home country even when it stabilised, as he had by then made this country his home.

No, why on Earth would they [some US citizens] want WW3?
Because the believe that it's the Rapture ordained by God.

Do they think they’ll be watching from afar?

Yep, because they will be caught up into Heaven. Don't mock. The thought that they might be despatched to The Other Place does not appear to have occurred to them.

@jisforjelly. Someone should gently point out to these WWIII supporters in US that they are the founding members of NATO and will most likely be high on Putin's naughty-list🙄

@Damnloginpopup

Another thing, I don't know if anyone really addressed it. The question of why would Russia attack a nuclear facility. Despite the fear created by the very concept of another Chernobyl amongst almost everyone (and as I work nights I was shitting myself while waiting for updates) the reality is it's a huge strategic target. It supplies 20-25% of power in Ukraine. Take that out and you hit morale, people's ability to cook, charge phones and communicate, stay warm etc

Blindingly obvious reason for targeting it quite honestly. And a legitimate target militarily.

They didn't appear to be targeting it directly. Not to mention that the workers (had) apparently been allowed to continue as normal.

They could have forced them to shut the reactor down if that was the goal.

Stormzy the problem is , She almost should be saying things with depth and resonance, something clever etc.

But unfortunately it probably will be shallow talk.

@TheSillyMastiff I wouldn't be so confident that the British Government wouldn't slap them with terrorism charges, if it suited them to do so. There are already mutterings about the Foreign Enlistment Act and how it could be used to prosecute people, not to mention the laws on consorting with proscribed organisations - one of the ways the YPG fighters were clobbered was by the erroneous accusation that they had joined or been trained by the PKK. There are neo-nazi battalions and other unsavoury elements involved in the Ukraine conflict. A government lawyer with an agenda would find a pretext. The prosecutions of the YPG volunteers were political, aimed at appeasing Erdogan, and the whole process was intensely cynical.

To crush their moral killing his captains is good.(for the war)

Putin is a master manipulator and I would not be surprised if the shelling at the nuclear plant was a carefully calculated move to scare and distract (or even to provoke, he is potentially mad enough). Either that or it is due to the general incompetence on the ground that we have seen so far. Agree it is a target as a major piece of infrastructure.

The Soviet Union has built the largest thermonuclear bomb in human history so far, named the Tsar Bomba.

That's the largest one they've tested. They have developed one twice it's size, can't remember the name at the moment. WRT nuclear war bring about the end of the world; we don't know because it's never happened. Experts estimate a nuclear winter lasting between 1 and 4 years which is quite a range. If that is a reasonably accurate estimate then most of us will starve but we don't actually know for sure. I'd be very happy to never find out.

@Fiefofum

Putin is a master manipulator and I would not be surprised if the shelling at the nuclear plant was a carefully calculated move to scare and distract (or even to provoke, he is potentially mad enough). Either that or it is due to the general incompetence on the ground that we have seen so far. Agree it is a target as a major piece of infrastructure.

I believe it's a continuation of the incompetence on the ground. Because otherwise, why wouldn't they simply force the workers to shut the reactor down?

@sadpapercourtesan government lawyers don’t have agendas, they are bound by both their professional codes of conduct as officers of the court and civil service rules on neutrality etc. Politicians, Ministers yes. And charging decisions would be made by the CPS anyhow.

My interest is if/how this could have been prevented, to the extent that it was within our control

Putin repeatedly said he wasn't going to invade Ukraine right up until the minute that he did. It seems it was always his intention to do so. So not sure what anyone, anywhere could have done to prevent that happening. It isn't about NATO or even the war in East Ukraine. He wants the whole of Ukraine to be a part of Russia and most of Ukraine would rather not be.

[quote sadpapercourtesan]@TheSillyMastiff I wouldn't be so confident that the British Government wouldn't slap them with terrorism charges, if it suited them to do so. There are already mutterings about the Foreign Enlistment Act and how it could be used to prosecute people, not to mention the laws on consorting with proscribed organisations - one of the ways the YPG fighters were clobbered was by the erroneous accusation that they had joined or been trained by the PKK. There are neo-nazi battalions and other unsavoury elements involved in the Ukraine conflict. A government lawyer with an agenda would find a pretext. The prosecutions of the YPG volunteers were political, aimed at appeasing Erdogan, and the whole process was intensely cynical.[/quote]
Problem they would have with this is the foreign minister saying on a public broadcast that basically anyone wanting to go would be "supported" to do so. Liz practically encouraged it on national television, so even if someone wanted to look at pressing charges, a conviction would be slim/none and the CPS wouldn't even be able to raise a charge given the public nature of comments and encouragement by a high ranking government official.

The defence would basically just play the clip in court. And seen as it's Her Majesties Court and Her Majesties Government stated "a ok to go" , and the prosecution works on behalf of her majesty it wouldn't even get out of the starting gate.

@yoolia

He really doesn't need to use full scale nuclear weapons unless he is properly backed into a corner with absolutely no off ramp (and even then someone else has got to follow his order to launch the things).

He will simply raze Ukraine to the ground, as he is currently doing. If that doesn't work he will probably use chemical weapons. If that doesn't work, he may use a small tactical nuke.

Agreed, though I don't think he is likely to use chemicals either. That said, this whole situation is unthinkable so who knows?

Back in cold war days the British army was trained to don NBC gear (respirator, suits etc) in event if an artillery bombardment as chemical shells were indeed part of the Soviet inventory. Same with aerial bombardment from memory.

I'm starting to wonder if the constant demand for no fly zone isn't actually a decoy now.

Ukraine is constantly on the phone to UK /us And eu they will know exactly about no fly zones...

The consent talk of its , I'm wondering if it's a decoy of some sort

@Wrongkindofovercoat

My interest is if/how this could have been prevented, to the extent that it was within our control

Putin repeatedly said he wasn't going to invade Ukraine right up until the minute that he did. It seems it was always his intention to do so. So not sure what anyone, anywhere could have done to prevent that happening. It isn't about NATO or even the war in East Ukraine. He wants the whole of Ukraine to be a part of Russia and most of Ukraine would rather not be.

Deterrence. The same crippling sanctions we've implemented now, back in 2014. Arm Ukraine before, so that it becomes obvious they'd be fighting an insurgency while facing economic collapse at home. Decouple and not hand them the keys to Europe's energy supply with projects like Nordstream 2 etc. Change his calculations.

[quote Fiefofum]@sadpapercourtesan government lawyers don’t have agendas, they are bound by both their professional codes of conduct as officers of the court and civil service rules on neutrality etc. Politicians, Ministers yes. And charging decisions would be made by the CPS anyhow.[/quote]
Haha, yeah OK.

I'm starting to wonder if the constant demand for no fly zone isn't actually a decoy now.

Could you explain more? Do you mean a misdirection to cover for something else?

The time for the west to try and prevent this from happening was 30 odd years ago. The fall of the Soivet Union could have been met with much more help to rebuild. Instead there was mass unemployment and all of the countries in Africa that USA had been bribing to not be communists were cut off. China filled that gap with plentiful loans, which keep those countries beholden to them. A very bitter Putin was able to ride in on his white horse (shirtless) and promise the new version of Peace, Land, Bread for the millennium. Just one tiny catch, the price is personal freedom. But if you have nothing and suddenly there are jobs and luxuries that's a small price to pay and no one else is helping you. Until suddenly there is no freedom at all, just a "strong" dictator.

Pretty sure the most likely outcome for all this is Putin gets Ukraine via military means but Russia is pretty much fucked.

@SeedsSeedsSeeds

Agree. And when Putin does eventually fall, we have to commit everything to that task so that it never happens again.

@jm901928

I don't WANT war. It'd be devastating.

It sounds like you don’t really get what nuclear war would mean?

The nukes that the US dropped on Japan to end WW2 are child’s play compared to what we have now.

We’re not talking about a devastating war where a shit load of people die, but not you and the people you love.

We’d literally be talking about the end of civilisation for fucks sake.

“ The Soviet Union has built the largest thermonuclear bomb in human history so far, named the Tsar Bomba.

It has a fireball radius was 2.3 km, and a radiation radius is 7.49 km. Its Air blast radius is 12.51 km.

The heat from its detonation was capable of causing third-degree burns up to a distance of 62 miles from ground zero. Its shock wave was felt by the people as far away as 692 km, while window glasses up to 900 km were shattered.”

There are almost 14,000 nuclear bombs in the world.

As Einstein said, World War 4 will be fought spears…

Just quickly on this. It's my understanding that only one of these bombs were completed and that was the one they tested. There are two more incomplete ones that are sat in museums.

The reason was they were impractical and very heavy it meant they had to be dropped by a plane (a big one at that!) and the plane barely escaped.

So in short the Tsar bomb doesn't exist as far as we know!

FOJN

I don't know I'm just thinking out loud.

Why the repetition asking for it all the time?

Maybe whilst denying that... something else covert is happening?

I am really not sure that Russia's weaponry is as good as people say. I could be wrong. It suits the western military industrial complex to talk up the state of Russian armaments to get more money for their own.

@Tigersonvaseline do you mean a decoy because it allows NATO to repeatedly reiterate that they will not do it (de-escalating the situation) but behind the scenes perhaps they're promising Ukraine they'll do something else? I'm not so sure.