The invasion is a Week Old...Part 7

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Unbelievable. Thread 6 is almost full, to be found here : www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4495271-The-Invasion-is-ongoing-Part-6?pg=1

Still a fascinating and thoughtful set of documentation of our evolving thoughts, fears, questions, analyses and updates. And still a credit to the eyes, ears and knowledge of those on here.

Pinched from one poster on thread 6 whose name I can't recall:

Latest claims from both sides about casualties
Ukraine's army regularly puts out updates on the damage it says it's inflicting on Russian forces, which continue to press on key cities, particularly in the south.

We should stress that the BBC can't verify this information, but the latest update from the General Staff of the Armed Forces says that approximately 9,000 Russian personnel have been killed or wounded.

It also says Ukrainian forces have destroyed:

217 tanks
90 artillery systems
31 helicopters
30 planes or other aircraft
For its part, Russia yesterday for the first time gave a specific number for casualties it had suffered in Ukraine, saying 498 Russian soldiers had died and nearly 1,600 had been wounded.

It said it had killed 2,870 Ukrainian soldiers and "nationalists".

But I can't live with myself if I were a bystander of bullying. As a country, we are strong and always look out for the weak. We had no reason or benefit to starting WW2, but we did...to save Poland's necks from Hitler's barbaric violence

Yeah but you've already said you won't be fighting, so all your grand posturing about not standing by while bullying goes on really means nothing. It's kind of sickening actually. Calling for war from the safety of your home knowing it's other people who will be the ones doing the dying.

Id bet my house that your husband doesn't go to Ukraine to fight. It's all hot air. Everyone likes to think they know what they would do and "i would do this if i didn't have children" safe in the knowledge that because you do have children, you'll never have to face up to your brave words. Meanwhile, other people are actually fighting and dying for real and they don't have a choice to sit safely at home.

@CowboyJo nobody wants war hence why the no fly zone is still in place !! A very unfortunate situation to be in!! I still can’t believe man is so set upon destroying our beautiful planet !! It’s so soul destroying

I have namechanged for this, but just for the information of anyone considering volunteering as a fighter:

I have a relative who fought as a volunteer with the Kurdish YPG against ISIS. He had extensive combat experience including in foreign war zones. He has severe PTSD following his time fighting ISIS. If you are inexperienced, not only will it be worse than you can possibly imagine, but you will be a liability and more likely to get others killed than help them.

My relative (and several other anti-ISIS volunteer fighters) was arrested on return to the UK and interrogated for hours. His passport and all tech were seized, his bank account frozen. The Metropolitan police released his name to the national press before they charged him with terrorism offences. He was fired from his job and hounded by the press, as well as being regularly harassed by Special Branch. His family were also harassed, questioned and visited at home by officers.

He was tried at the Old Bailey (I know there's a lot of detail here, hence the namechange, but this is all in the press anyway) and proceedings dragged on and on for months - he couldn't work, had no access to money. His bail conditions required him to be at an address which he had lost the ability to pay for. It was a living nightmare.

Charges were eventually dropped against my relative, with no explanation given. He was warned that new charges could be brought at any time, so he lives with that possibility hanging over him. Others were not so lucky and at least one has been jailed.

Please, please don't do this unless you are fully aware of all the implications.

@Squidinkk

But I can't live with myself if I were a bystander of bullying. As a country, we are strong and always look out for the weak. We had no reason or benefit to starting WW2, but we did...to save Poland's necks from Hitler's barbaric violence

Yeah but you've already said you won't be fighting, so all your grand posturing about not standing by while bullying goes on really means nothing. It's kind of sickening actually. Calling for war from the safety of your home knowing it's other people who will be the ones doing the dying.

Id bet my house that your husband doesn't go to Ukraine to fight. It's all hot air. Everyone likes to think they know what they would do and "i would do this if i didn't have children" safe in the knowledge that because you do have children, you'll never have to face up to your brave words. Meanwhile, other people are actually fighting and dying for real and they don't have a choice to sit safely at home.

Quite!

Well if someone is calling for war then it will bring war the safety of their own homes.

People just feel powerless And impotent.

@fifo.... NATO is a defensive military alliance and will not attack, it exists to defend its members.
If NATO members state is attacked, Article 5 is called and the whole alliance will act in defence. Putin knows this 🙄

@Fiefofum

I have some sympathy with *@CowboyJo* but hear me out. I think as per Fiona Hill that there is an inevitability that this conflict will expand beyond the borders of Ukraine eventually, history makes this fairly clear. This view is based on Putin’s own words and his clearly stated dreams of expansion based on historical Russian territories. I also think that cowering at the threat of nuclear weapons sets a really worrying precedent that all budding despots out there will take advantage of - all they need to do is threaten nuclear action, that foreign powers will be too scared to provoke them and so they are untouchable militarily. This will have undesirable consequences down the road. I am not saying don’t tread carefully but this global impotence is worrying. What if a NATO member is threatened, will we still be too scared to act? I think these questions do need to be asked and considered.

There's other experts who don't agree with Fiona Hill. Even if they did, the goal has to be deescalation until such time as it becomes a literal impossibility, and let's pray that day never comes.

I'm interested in her logic. I know that the Rand Corporation and others had war gamed a conflict with Russia and NATO in the balkans and reached the conclusion that although Russia could mobilise well before NATO, such a conflict would ultimately be unwinnable for them.

Their stuggles in Ukraine have hardly bolstered that perception. They're going to be bogged down in an insurgency there for years, unless they reach some sort of settlement. Their economy is heading towards oblivion. They'll be practically a vassal state of China.

What ability will they have to wage a conventional war multiple fronts against NATO?

@ChimChimeny

mobile.twitter.com/thetimes/status/1499710190253400065

Can anyone explain what this means please? Does it mean that the assassination attempts are being sabotaged from within? Thanks

If I'm honest I take it with a bucket of salt. Almost definitely Ukrainian propaganda - if an Feb double agent is feeding you the info that stops three assassination attempts you aren't going to blow their cover.

Propaganda doesn't just come from Russia no matter how much sympathy and hope we have for Ukraine.

Sorry it may have already been mentioned but couldn’t seem to see it. For those that know more than me what do these UN votes mean? Are they just look how many countries don’t think your right or do they have any weighting.

Also talks of negotiations tomorrow again, I hope something good comes from it and both sides are willing to compromise slightly on demands otherwise what’s the point in holding them? Or am I missing the point?

Putin has banned Facebook in Russia

What if a NATO member is threatened, will we still be too scared to act?

The boosting of NATO troops on the borders suggests that we would not be too scared to act if a NATO country was attacked. For many (including me) that would be the red line. I know it’s selfish to be prepared to risk ww3 for my (and my families) freedom and safety was threatened when I’m not prepared to risk the same for Ukrainian families.

The problem with invoking “but we stood up to Hitler when he invaded Poland” glosses over the fact that we pretty much looked the other way when he walked into Austria and the Sudetenland in 1938 under the pretext of reuniting German speaking people.

We did. We allowed it to happen to secure peace for ourselves. The day after Germany annexed Sudetenland, Chamberlain gave his "peace in our time" speech. I think there has been lots of discussion over the years about whether we could have prevented WW2 by standing up to Hitler sooner. I think similar questions are being asked now because we looked away whilst Hitler annexed Austria and Sudetenland and were drawn into a WW anyway.

The big difference is Hitler didn't have nukes.

I have zero desire for NATO to provoke Putin and world war 3. At least as it stands the Ukrainian people have a choice of other countries to go to where they are safe. Nowhere is safe if WW3 breaks out.

I've wondered what her motives were, I know many people think she's out of her depth but her comments were reckless (an understatement) beyond simple incompetence. Was it a way of getting special forces into the Ukraine by "disguising" them as civilian fighters?

It was such and odd and out of alignment comment that I too did wonder if there was more to it. A sort of, 'I'm throwing this out here once only so it lands where it needs to without it being a direct instruction and government can row back on it later' type situation.

I may of course be reading too much into it.

I also don't actually hold that if we don't stand up to Putin militarily then he will invade the rest of Europe.

For one thing, he can't afford to.

Another thing, I don't know if anyone really addressed it. The question of why would Russia attack a nuclear facility. Despite the fear created by the very concept of another Chernobyl amongst almost everyone (and as I work nights I was shitting myself while waiting for updates) the reality is it's a huge strategic target. It supplies 20-25% of power in Ukraine. Take that out and you hit morale, people's ability to cook, charge phones and communicate, stay warm etc

Blindingly obvious reason for targeting it quite honestly. And a legitimate target militarily.

@Jisforjelly

Has anyone noticed a huge amount of US citizens calling for world war three on various social media platforms?!

No, why on Earth would they want WW3?

Do they think they’ll be watching from afar?

@Autumnwater

Sorry it may have already been mentioned but couldn’t seem to see it. For those that know more than me what do these UN votes mean? Are they just look how many countries don’t think your right or do they have any weighting.

Also talks of negotiations tomorrow again, I hope something good comes from it and both sides are willing to compromise slightly on demands otherwise what’s the point in holding them? Or am I missing the point?

Yes more talks hopefully tomo and talks in Turkey possible next week too. As you said there must be some room for maneuver on both sides otherwise they would just not bother continuing talks. Both sides will be wanting this over as quickly as possible now.

@Fiefofum

I have some sympathy with *@CowboyJo* but hear me out. I think as per Fiona Hill that there is an inevitability that this conflict will expand beyond the borders of Ukraine eventually, history makes this fairly clear. This view is based on Putin’s own words and his clearly stated dreams of expansion based on historical Russian territories. I also think that cowering at the threat of nuclear weapons sets a really worrying precedent that all budding despots out there will take advantage of - all they need to do is threaten nuclear action, that foreign powers will be too scared to provoke them and so they are untouchable militarily. This will have undesirable consequences down the road. I am not saying don’t tread carefully but this global impotence is worrying. What if a NATO member is threatened, will we still be too scared to act? I think these questions do need to be asked and considered.

No we won’t be too scared to act re NATO country but no to going into Ukraine

@Squidinkk

But I can't live with myself if I were a bystander of bullying. As a country, we are strong and always look out for the weak. We had no reason or benefit to starting WW2, but we did...to save Poland's necks from Hitler's barbaric violence

Yeah but you've already said you won't be fighting, so all your grand posturing about not standing by while bullying goes on really means nothing. It's kind of sickening actually. Calling for war from the safety of your home knowing it's other people who will be the ones doing the dying.

Id bet my house that your husband doesn't go to Ukraine to fight. It's all hot air. Everyone likes to think they know what they would do and "i would do this if i didn't have children" safe in the knowledge that because you do have children, you'll never have to face up to your brave words. Meanwhile, other people are actually fighting and dying for real and they don't have a choice to sit safely at home.

👏 👏 👏

We are so very privileged to be sat here typing. Our personal war strategy, our ideas for diplomacy, our groundless fears…….

This is not touching us. It may seem like it is, but it’s really not, unless we have relatives or friends in that region.

I personally feel that if Putin decides to use nuclear weapons it will be low yield tactical nukes rather than launching ICBMs on the world. What would the NATO response be to those I wonder? Anyway, he almost definitely won't, and with his thermobaric capabilities probably doesn't need to.

@BuntyGinchGethins

I have namechanged for this, but just for the information of anyone considering volunteering as a fighter:

I have a relative who fought as a volunteer with the Kurdish YPG against ISIS. He had extensive combat experience including in foreign war zones. He has severe PTSD following his time fighting ISIS. If you are inexperienced, not only will it be worse than you can possibly imagine, but you will be a liability and more likely to get others killed than help them.

My relative (and several other anti-ISIS volunteer fighters) was arrested on return to the UK and interrogated for hours. His passport and all tech were seized, his bank account frozen. The Metropolitan police released his name to the national press before they charged him with terrorism offences. He was fired from his job and hounded by the press, as well as being regularly harassed by Special Branch. His family were also harassed, questioned and visited at home by officers.

He was tried at the Old Bailey (I know there's a lot of detail here, hence the namechange, but this is all in the press anyway) and proceedings dragged on and on for months - he couldn't work, had no access to money. His bail conditions required him to be at an address which he had lost the ability to pay for. It was a living nightmare.

Charges were eventually dropped against my relative, with no explanation given. He was warned that new charges could be brought at any time, so he lives with that possibility hanging over him. Others were not so lucky and at least one has been jailed.

Please, please don't do this unless you are fully aware of all the implications.

I also now ex military men RM and Paras that went to the Kurdish people's defence who also faced similar charges, they had no money but friends supported them emotionally and financially on their return. Some never came back not because they we KIA but because they wanted to stay with the Kurds.

In this situation however it's important to note that there are no such legal implications of going to Ukraine to fight. The British Government are not going to charge anyone with terrorism offences.

Now to be clear, I do not think going to Ukraine is wise, and that some men pose being an absolute operational liability to the men they will serve with especially of they have no combat experience, and do not fully grasp the atrocities they will see or what will be asked of them. But I feel it important to clear up that no legal implications will be placed against foreign legion members.

@yoolia

I have zero desire for NATO to provoke Putin and world war 3. At least as it stands the Ukrainian people have a choice of other countries to go to where they are safe. Nowhere is safe if WW3 breaks out.

I agree. Better to be an alive Refugee than nuked.

I haven’t ( Yet) been a Refugee, but would prefer flight to annihilation.
Members of our extended family were Refugees from WW2 , and settled here.
Not ideal, but better than slaughter.

He really doesn't need to use full scale nuclear weapons unless he is properly backed into a corner with absolutely no off ramp (and even then someone else has got to follow his order to launch the things).

He will simply raze Ukraine to the ground, as he is currently doing. If that doesn't work he will probably use chemical weapons. If that doesn't work, he may use a small tactical nuke.

He is stopping journalists reporting from russia. He's also closed fb in russia. I guess other social media will follow. So he's isolating russia so they don't hear the truth ? Is he shitting it ?

Also apparently 3 of his commanders have been killed. ?