The invasion is a Week Old...Part 7

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Unbelievable. Thread 6 is almost full, to be found here : www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4495271-The-Invasion-is-ongoing-Part-6?pg=1

Still a fascinating and thoughtful set of documentation of our evolving thoughts, fears, questions, analyses and updates. And still a credit to the eyes, ears and knowledge of those on here.

Pinched from one poster on thread 6 whose name I can't recall:

Latest claims from both sides about casualties
Ukraine's army regularly puts out updates on the damage it says it's inflicting on Russian forces, which continue to press on key cities, particularly in the south.

We should stress that the BBC can't verify this information, but the latest update from the General Staff of the Armed Forces says that approximately 9,000 Russian personnel have been killed or wounded.

It also says Ukrainian forces have destroyed:

217 tanks
90 artillery systems
31 helicopters
30 planes or other aircraft
For its part, Russia yesterday for the first time gave a specific number for casualties it had suffered in Ukraine, saying 498 Russian soldiers had died and nearly 1,600 had been wounded.

It said it had killed 2,870 Ukrainian soldiers and "nationalists".

It is vital that NATO members stay on the same page.
The treaty is very basic and short form. A NATO member cannot enter into other competing agreements though so I doubt the Eastern European countries could do their own thing without undermining the NATO treaty.
And of course Putin wouldn’t love anything more than undermining NATO

FWIW my DM late 70's voted remain as did another posters so pretty much debunks that theory!

I'm late 60s, voted remain, and so did most of my peers. The turnout for under 30s was pretty low, much lower than over 60s, so I don't think that helped.

@workisnotawolf

It is vital that NATO members stay on the same page. The treaty is very basic and short form. A NATO member cannot enter into other competing agreements though so I doubt the Eastern European countries could do their own thing without undermining the NATO treaty. And of course Putin wouldn’t love anything more than undermining NATO

There's nothing to stop a NATO member being involved in other actions.

They can't enter other agreements that come into conflict with the NATO treaty but that's a different matter entirely.

@Hlglu56 yesterday I mentioned a podcast that had a really good interview with Jamie Shea who had personal experience of dealing with Putin. It is well worth a listen.

This is the blurb:

“Ukraine has been invaded by Russia. But why? What is NATO’s purpose, and why does it bother Vladimir Putin so much? In this episode of Warfare, we’re joined by Jamie Shea, the Former Deputy Assistant Secretary-General at NATO, who’s sat across the table from the Russian President himself. Jamie and James explore the birth of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the questions surrounding its membership, and how it impacts the current situation in Ukraine. Jamie has decades of experience working for NATO since the Cold War era, and shares incredible insights into the ups and downs of its relationship with Russia over the years.
To hear more from Jamie, check out his weekly look at emerging geopolitical crises as well as threats in security and defence here.”

It’s only 20 mins long, an abridged version of the full interview: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/dan-snows-history-hit/id1042631089?i=1000552172007

[quote alltheapples]@FatFredsFriedEgg True. Either unconnected then, or there is intelligence of a threat to Estonia.[/quote]
We've had a presence in Estonia for a long time. It's a show of strength and that they are prepared to defend NATO states should that become necessary, but I highly doubt anything more than that at this stage. Moving armour takes time and significant logistical planning, it makes sense for them to demonstrate readiness without that meaning any more aggressive action is on the horizon.

The West has demonstrated remarkable unity and resolve. To a far greater extent than anyone thought possible.

It is also now clear that Putin cannot win a conventional war against NATO forces. The truly rotten state of Russian conventional armies has been laid bare by the bravery and determination of the Ukrainian people.

It leaves Putin in no doubt what would happen to him if he invaded any NATO country, including the Baltic States and, of course, Poland.

But, sadly, Ukraine will be left largely to fend for itself. EU and NATO expansionism has come to an end. I am surprised that the Baltic States managed to sneak in before Putin put his foot down, but for Ukraine it is too late.

A new Cold War begins and we are back to the tense stand off that I remember in the 1980s.

For a defensive organisation, NATO has done a remarkable job of advancing to the East. The EU has also been fairly provocative, with talk of federalism, a single army and relentless expansion. I entirely see why Putin regards it as a threat. The Chinese response to the situation is also framed in terms of a warning to the West.

I am horrified by the destruction of Ukraine, but I expect that it will be sacrificed by the West on the altar of global security.

The West can do no more to help than its already doing. The Russians are now bogged down in a long war of attrition that will be hugely costly and will ultimately be lost, just as the US lost the Vietnam War and just as the USSR lost the war in Afghanistan back in the 1980s.

I fear that the best that can be done for Ukraine is humanitarian and military aid, together with asylum for any Ukrainian national who wants to escape.

Ironically, this episode shows the weakness, rather than the strength of Russia's position. Not that this will be any comfort for the poor souls in Ukraine.

The people at the nuclear power plant captured by the Russians are reported to be working at gunpoint.

President Putin has warned those opposing Russia's actions in Ukraine "not to exacerbate the situation" by imposing more restrictions on his country.

What he means is western countries not to get involved and impose restrictions. Now if China, which has taken Switzerland's place on the 'nothing to do with me' fence could intervene & wind him in that may help. Says a lot when the neutral Swiss (since 1815!) takes a side.

Funny how Putin made trade agreements with China and Pakistan just before the invasion.

Anyone else think that suggestions as to who would play Zelensky in a film are totally uncalled for. FFS this is not a plot for a film you idiots. Innocent civilians are dying as you ponder a future film of this absolute tragedy.

Have some respect!!

Good post @AlecTrevelyan006

I find nuclear war scares hard to tolerate

There's nothing to stop a NATO member being involved in other actions.

Would retaliation from involvement in external wars still trigger article 5?

For example, had Iraq started bombing us after we invaded them presumably NATO countries wouldn't have had to step in to defend us, would they?

@AlecTrevelyan006

The West has demonstrated remarkable unity and resolve. To a far greater extent than anyone thought possible.

It is also now clear that Putin cannot win a conventional war against NATO forces. The truly rotten state of Russian conventional armies has been laid bare by the bravery and determination of the Ukrainian people.

It leaves Putin in no doubt what would happen to him if he invaded any NATO country, including the Baltic States and, of course, Poland.

But, sadly, Ukraine will be left largely to fend for itself. EU and NATO expansionism has come to an end. I am surprised that the Baltic States managed to sneak in before Putin put his foot down, but for Ukraine it is too late.

A new Cold War begins and we are back to the tense stand off that I remember in the 1980s.

For a defensive organisation, NATO has done a remarkable job of advancing to the East. The EU has also been fairly provocative, with talk of federalism, a single army and relentless expansion. I entirely see why Putin regards it as a threat. The Chinese response to the situation is also framed in terms of a warning to the West.

I am horrified by the destruction of Ukraine, but I expect that it will be sacrificed by the West on the altar of global security.

The West can do no more to help than its already doing. The Russians are now bogged down in a long war of attrition that will be hugely costly and will ultimately be lost, just as the US lost the Vietnam War and just as the USSR lost the war in Afghanistan back in the 1980s.

I fear that the best that can be done for Ukraine is humanitarian and military aid, together with asylum for any Ukrainian national who wants to escape.

Ironically, this episode shows the weakness, rather than the strength of Russia's position. Not that this will be any comfort for the poor souls in Ukraine.

Exactly my thoughts. And putin is well aware of how far he can push the boundaries. It's just horrible

@alltheapples

The people at the nuclear power plant captured by the Russians are reported to be working at gunpoint.

Where did you see this? BBC hasn’t reported this

@AnnieP1

trying to add some light relief but I take your point

FFS this is not a plot for a film you idiots

Suggesting that UK, EU, and US citizens could be conscripted into the Russian Army and sent to Ukraine is ridiculous and absolutely on the level of a plot for a film.

@alltheapples your posts are starting to smack of mild hysteria, perhaps try to calm down a bit, there are many vulnerable posters who read MN for news it seems.
NATO is fortifying it's borders just as it has been telling the world it will do. If a NATO country shares a boarder with Russia it would be a sound idea to keep the heavy stuff near it, no? 🙄
Finland would give right arm to have same option 😳

[quote CaveMum]@Hlglu56 yesterday I mentioned a podcast that had a really good interview with Jamie Shea who had personal experience of dealing with Putin. It is well worth a listen.

This is the blurb:

“Ukraine has been invaded by Russia. But why? What is NATO’s purpose, and why does it bother Vladimir Putin so much? In this episode of Warfare, we’re joined by Jamie Shea, the Former Deputy Assistant Secretary-General at NATO, who’s sat across the table from the Russian President himself. Jamie and James explore the birth of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the questions surrounding its membership, and how it impacts the current situation in Ukraine. Jamie has decades of experience working for NATO since the Cold War era, and shares incredible insights into the ups and downs of its relationship with Russia over the years.
To hear more from Jamie, check out his weekly look at emerging geopolitical crises as well as threats in security and defence here.”

It’s only 20 mins long, an abridged version of the full interview: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/dan-snows-history-hit/id1042631089?i=1000552172007[/quote]
Thanks. I listen to History Hit anyway. I listened to the short history of Ukraine and Russia one they did, I though it was really interesting, but missed this one so will definitely give it a listen.

UK dockers refuse tanker of Russian gas www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-60619112

[quote valerianaofficiana]@alltheapples your posts are starting to smack of mild hysteria, perhaps try to calm down a bit, there are many vulnerable posters who read MN for news it seems.
NATO is fortifying it's borders just as it has been telling the world it will do. If a NATO country shares a boarder with Russia it would be a sound idea to keep the heavy stuff near it, no? 🙄
Finland would give right arm to have same option 😳[/quote]
Agreed.

I think it's an interesting demonstration of how a little bit of knowledge can be a dangerous thing when snippets of information are repeated outside of the wider context.

China to block broadcast of Premier League matches this weekend over displays of Ukraine support
Reports are emerging that China will block the broadcast of all Premier League matches this weekend due to various planned displays of support for Ukraine.
China are key allies of Russia, and the country's response to the invasion is being closely watched by observers who hope leader Xi Jinping may use his influence to help deescalate the conflict.

This is from sky news updates

Would retaliation from involvement in external wars still trigger article 5?

Yes - if they were attacked in their own country.

I assume (and it is an assumption) that a country could request that other members didn't become involved.

But if, for example, Poland was to attack Russian forces in Ukraine then doesn't the 'we can't attack them because they've got nukes' apply just as much to Russia attacking Poland as it does to NATO attacking Russia?

No, I am not suffering from mild hysteria. What a way to put a woman down.
I reported facts and speculated what they could mean, including that it could mean nothing.
If people want to talk about film plots rather than facts then maybe this isn't the thread for them?

Mark Scott @markscott82
OK, so the sanctions on Russian state media appear to be having an impact. Over last 24 hours, OK, so the sanctions on Russian state media appear to be having an impact. Over last 24 hours, Facebook engagement for Kremlin outlets dropped 12% — note massive drop for RT France.

BUT — engagement for Western media also fell 10%.

Wedaddy @wedaddy
Notice how nobody is doing anything about RT Arabic.. the West will come to regret this. Big swaths of Arab public opinion are high on Kremlin propaganda

On the third night of the invasion i was talking to friends at a social gathering. I was the odd one out. Everyone was showing me RT Arabic propaganda about Ukraine. I learned a valuable lesson: Russian propaganda leverages effectively anger at the Iraq war to Arab audiences

With Arab audiences, Kremlin propaganda plays an effective game: "If America can flaunt international norms, why can't Putin do it?", Or "Ukraine is a Russian province that the West egged on against Russia." "When did the West ever face consequences for the Iraq war, Palestine?"

Basically, what Kremlin propaganda does is play with Arab grievances against the West rather than anything else. What i found works is bringing up Putin's war in Syria, his double-sided dealings with Assad/Iran/Israel. However the propaganda has been at play for years..

The other reaction I got was: "Both Russia and the West will kill us and get away with it. Why should we care when we see footage of Ukrainian soldiers dipping bullets in pig fat to kill Muslim Chechens. They ALL hate us, Russians, Ukrainians and Westerners."

Also, something that came up frequently was the images of fleeing Blacks and Arabs being prevented from exiting Ukraine or entering Poland. This is the aspect that got most attention in the Arab world more than the rest of the war.

In other words, people in the Arab world, like any other region, will view the same event from their own vantage point, and will filter it through their own recent history. Effective propaganda leverages the quintessential rule: know your audience, and cater to it.

The most interesting answer I got in that discussion: "look this is not our war. Let them sort it among themselves. They'll end up starving us all if wheat prices don't stop rising"

I've noticed this and have been concerned.

The Kremlin are targeting international fractures in very particular ways (and have done for a few years).

In the last few days there's definitely been trying to drive a wedge between the Anglosphere and European countries. (Not helped by unwillingness to add proper clout to sanctions...). And there's definitely one going on between the West and Rest of the World (particularly arab world).

Worth keeping a close eye on. Crazy shit sticks.

@Thewayshetalks I saw it on Twitter reported by CNN and other sources. But I do always check it is being reported by a mainstream source first.

I'm very opposed to denigrate women by labelling them hysterical, as I clearly stated on the hysteria thread.
However, your posts were alarmist to put it mildly and could cause much distress to vulnerable posters.
Please don't take it personally, these are difficult times, we still should keep calm and, yup, carry on.