The invasion is a Week Old...Part 7

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Unbelievable. Thread 6 is almost full, to be found here : www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4495271-The-Invasion-is-ongoing-Part-6?pg=1

Still a fascinating and thoughtful set of documentation of our evolving thoughts, fears, questions, analyses and updates. And still a credit to the eyes, ears and knowledge of those on here.

Pinched from one poster on thread 6 whose name I can't recall:

Latest claims from both sides about casualties
Ukraine's army regularly puts out updates on the damage it says it's inflicting on Russian forces, which continue to press on key cities, particularly in the south.

We should stress that the BBC can't verify this information, but the latest update from the General Staff of the Armed Forces says that approximately 9,000 Russian personnel have been killed or wounded.

It also says Ukrainian forces have destroyed:

217 tanks
90 artillery systems
31 helicopters
30 planes or other aircraft
For its part, Russia yesterday for the first time gave a specific number for casualties it had suffered in Ukraine, saying 498 Russian soldiers had died and nearly 1,600 had been wounded.

It said it had killed 2,870 Ukrainian soldiers and "nationalists".

[quote FatFucker]Sad stories from adult children based in Ukraine trying to prove to their Russian based parents the truth. But the parents are not believing them.

How can you believe your government over your kids?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60600487[/quote]
My Russian neighbour (Europe) said her Moscow living mother also thinks its a load of wicked WESTERN propaganda.

Her mum absolutely won’t see the truth.

Maybe years of mum living under Soviet rule?

It frustrates Westernised neighbour no end.

Max Seddon @maxseddon
S7, Russia’s second-largest airline, announces it’s ceasing all international flights from tomorrow.

Musicman, yes of course there will be terrible events to discuss on this thread. Yes, I am probably being too sensitive about the "who was the worst mass murderer" top trumps element of your posts.

Musicman's posts were most informative and necessary. We have had what could possibly be counted as brainwashing in the UK as to How We Won the War, without realising that if Hitler hadn't turned his forces on the USSR and tied up his army fighting on the eastern front the outcome might have been very different for us.

@yoolia

apparently only Ukrainians with family members are allowed to enter the UK?

That is correct.

That's not right . On QT last night the Conservative minister say can people stop saying that as it is not correct and it may put people off who can come forward for help. She also said that there are British Govt staff in Ukraine helping people get out . So well done to those staff.

@HeadPain

Zelenskyy begs the West to send military planes for Ukraine to use. thoughts?

Think anything we do is a risk at the moment which is the sad truth.

No fly zone would be suicide for NATO, planes can cause uproar from Russia. It seems a balancing act at the moment

What I keep reading is that there is a serious generational divide within Russia in terms of believing in and supporting Putin

The older generations who get their news mostly from TV (which is all state approved TV) are far more supportive.

Younger people who are used to getting their news online and have ways around state internet controls are more likely to be against the war, they are seeing foreign coverage of it.

The other divide is that older people will remember the fall of the Soviet Union and the chaos of the 1990s, and see Putin as the strong leader who saved them from that era. To younger people he is just the guy who's been in charge their whole lives and increasingly making their lives difficult.

The Times is reporting assassination attempts on President Zelensky have been thwarted following tip offs from the Russian Intelligence Agencies so it seems not everyone in the Russian Defence and Security Infrastructure is in favour of Putin’s barbarism.

That follows this yesterday

Janis Kluge @jakluge
According to a source in Aeroflot, #Russia will not return airplanes leased from European companies (more than 500). Trust in protection of property rights will disappear. Who will ever send any machinery to Russia again?

Or, more precisely: It will be difficult to find insurance for business with Russia.

Airlines won't be able to pay for and get parts, fuel and fees too, is probably part of the problem here. Inability to maintain aircraft and rouble being worthless means a defacto border close by air even if no martial law...

apparently only Ukrainians with family members are allowed to enter the UK? That is correct.

That's not right . On QT last night the Conservative minister say can people stop saying that as it is not correct and it may put people off who can come forward for help.

Would you like to tell us why the Tory Minister is correct because it very much looks as though that was the case www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/01/uk-to-relax-visa-rules-for-extended-family-of-ukrainians-in-britain

OK now Priti Patel has gone running off to Poland no doubt to prove how wonderful she is.

@Thereisnolight

What does everyone think about Ukrainian men between 18-60 not allowed to leave Ukraine even if they want to? They are prisoners effectively. No Russian-bot hunters please. I’m genuinely wondering as I’m seeing no comment about this in the news.

Why didn't Russia send in the skilled troops?

Assuming that Putin vastly underestimated the Ukrainians and the fury of the West, he sent in the least trained soldiers first. But as soon as it became clear that the army was getting bogged down, you'd have thought he send in much more experienced and ruthless men.

As for the Russian population, I fear that they will suffer immensely too. But the alternative is not imposing sanctions and that's not OK. No ordinary person wins here ...

@oakleaffy re what use is Ukraine if it’s razed to the ground - it’s classic abusive partner actions “If I can’t have you/it then no one can.”

That's not right . On QT last night the Conservative minister say can people stop saying that as it is not correct and it may put people off who can come forward for help.

Well at the moment it is still right. This is the current guidance:

www.gov.uk/government/news/further-support-for-ukrainians-fleeing-russia-invasion

At the moment it's still just family members and they are working on a new scheme for people without family here, but it is not ready yet.

Oh bugger, RedToothBrush has already answered. Oops, shoudl have RTFT.

Link to the Times article on assassination attempts but I don’t have a share token: www.thetimes.co.uk/article/zelensky-survives-three-assassination-attempts-in-days-xnstdfdfc

Yes, and there is a time and a place for these lofty, self-lacerating ideals. Now isn't one of them.

It's going to be a question of endurance.

Putin will take over Ukraine. He's got the manpower to do it. Holding the country will be a different matter, especially if there is an organised insurgency (likely) and a government in exile (possible).

My best guess is that he expects the West to lose interest in sanctions when the headlines fade and the hit to our economies grow. The problem is that he's focused everyone's minds on energy security which will shrink his market for oil & gas within the next decade. As that's 60% of the exports, that's a massive export gap to replace. On top of that, Russia's got a well-documented brain drain problem and this war will aggravate that. Finally, it's population is shrinking due to Covid-19, structural health problems and a really low birth rate.

In summary? I think this is the USSR's last defiant hurrah before reality bites. In the next few weeks, Russia will get some sort of 'win'. If we persist, we will get the chance in the next few years. By 'win' I am talking about Ukraine's independence as a free and fair state and the reduction of the wider threat to Europe.

Of course, I am conscious this all depends on the war being confined to Ukraine's boarders...

*borders.

Bloody autocorrect!

@Peregrina

Musicman, yes of course there will be terrible events to discuss on this thread. Yes, I am probably being too sensitive about the "who was the worst mass murderer" top trumps element of your posts.

Musicman's posts were most informative and necessary. We have had what could possibly be counted as brainwashing in the UK as to How We Won the War, without realising that if Hitler hadn't turned his forces on the USSR and tied up his army fighting on the eastern front the outcome might have been very different for us.

I know that peregrina, I am not brainwashed! I know that the USSR sacrificed so much and suffered the worst looses and that the outcome of WW2 would have been very different.

Please understand that is not the element of MMs posts that I was commenting on.I wish I hadn't said anything at all now and kept my thoughts to myself.

Losses.Grr.

How can you believe your government over your kids?

Isn't it just a more extreme version of UK thirty-somethings trying to convince their Brexit-voting parents that our government are not 'getting Brexit done' and do not have a 'world-beating response to Covid'.

The difference in Russia is the deep history of being forced to accept government propaganda. The older generations know nothing else.

We can see that in the UK as well though. The underlying 'it must be true if it's - 'on the BBC', or 'in The Daily Mail' etc. is still there, particularly with older people.

@HeadPain

Zelenskyy begs the West to send military planes for Ukraine to use. thoughts?

If he literally means for use by the Ukrainian Air Force then they either need to be types already on their inventory (e.g. MiG-29) to avoid having to retrain whatever pilots they have left or the west will have to provide the pilots as well………

@Lambkin689

Yes, and there is a time and a place for these lofty, self-lacerating ideals. Now isn't one of them.

(replying to comment about Germany's lack of active support)

pmk

If people's anxiety is taking over, then they should stop seeking out news and opinions on what's going on. I approach this by assuming that the people's opinions that im reading on Mumsnet are no more qualified than i am. And logburner and anyone else feeling such a high level of continual distress should go to their GP because you may be suffering from an anxiety disorder or something that needs treatment. It's natural to feel upset about what's going on. Feeling like your legs might give way through fear when you're hundreds of miles away in a safe place, is disproportionate.

@NewModelArmyMayhem18

How easy is it to impose martial law in Russia with 90% of Russian Army focussed on the Ukraine?

Things are just going from bad to worse :-(.

Where do you get 90% of Russian Army focussed on the Ukraine from?

90% of the force that was allocated to invade Ukraine are apparently already within Ukraine borders. But that force is thought to be less than 20% of Russia's total - and that's before expanding conscription and calling up reservists.