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ADs and The Brave New World

1000 replies

BogRollBOGOF · 20/10/2021 22:55

When you kind of hope that a new thread meanders on quietly because it means that life is being fairly stable...

What are ADs?

Here's the copy and paste job...

Definition of AD
^AD stands for anti dementor.
There are creatures in Harry Potter called dementors, who suck all hope and happiness from you and eventually take your soul. Way back at the start of the pandemic thread after thread was posted on by posters like this and anyone who'd dare question anything or disagree with anything (like putting cheese in your coffee) was bullied off these threads. And so any actual discussion disappeared and it became an echo chamber of misery.^

We are the antidote to that. We follow the rules, but not the "roolz" and we question and discuss with respect to each other. It's all very civil.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
34
ISaySteadyOn · 13/12/2021 09:01

@MrsDeaconClaybourne

I'm a dog rather than a cat person but s/he is gorgeous 😍
She is. And she's really really soft. But rules the house with a paw of iron.
justasking111 · 13/12/2021 16:15

Interesting chat at the vets bumped into the most gorgeous male so tanned maybe a model. Asked where his tan originated. Turned out he lives in Spain a lot of the time. He said covid worse there everyone masked up and nervous BUT the government and media aren't making the fuss misinformation that we are

mightbealittlebitmad · 13/12/2021 17:33

I'm raging tonight about how people can be so ok with schools potentially being shut again alongside everything else. They just shrug their shoulders and it's like meh.

I will be fighting for my 6 year old a school place if it comes to it. Zoom lessons made him so stressed and so upset and my attempts to homeschool him whilst feeling so miserable myself were nearly impossible.

In reception I wasn't so worried, we did a lot of learning through play. Year 1 worried me more but now he's well into year 2 I'm very concerned. He's been saying how he doesn't want to go to school because there are no toys, he's very immature for his age and really needs the structure of school to help him grow up a bit.

I just feel so helpless! My marriage will not survive another lockdown, if it happens again I will just call it quits straight away to avoid all the drama we went through last time. I can't shake off the resentment I feel for him being able to live his life 95% normally whilst mine has been turned upside down and everything I do to keep me sane and enjoy has been taken away from me.

I've been told I need therapy but I don't think it's unreasonable to be worried about the immediate future or having everything taken away from me... again. When will it ever end if it happens again? I don't feel like it can.

BogRollBOGOF · 13/12/2021 18:54

There's not much appetite for remote learning at ours. We had a poll about early finishes and ⅔ voted to keep to the original term dates so from mid-week, it's an option to opt out and have tasks sent home. I think that's a fair outcome (although more palaver for the teachers)
When the poll came out, the parents' chat was mainly dismay about the practicalities of childcare and learning.

The people who think the rest of us need to sacrifice ourselves to keep them safe are a gobby minority. Most people have suffered enough and seen how the government regards its own rules.

I've had my moments in the past few weeks, but generally I'm bolstered by the lack of public support and that furlough has stopped which makes shutting down industries and schools far harder.

OP posts:
ISaySteadyOn · 14/12/2021 07:50

Question: Is yoga or Pilates better for a dyspraxic woman do you think?

Pleasenomoreglitter · 14/12/2021 08:29

@ISaySteadyOn

Question: Is yoga or Pilates better for a dyspraxic woman do you think?
I'm not dyspraxic, but I'd say pilates. Less strange positions and also no real names for the positions like in yoga. I've tried both and find pilates much easier to follow, although it probably depends on the teacher to an extent too.
ISaySteadyOn · 14/12/2021 08:44

Thanks

thenightsky · 14/12/2021 21:27

I'm not dyspraxic, but I'd say pilates. Less strange positions and also no real names for the positions like in yoga. I've tried both and find pilates much easier to follow, although it probably depends on the teacher to an extent too.

That's my experience too. Plus I can still do Pilates with my arthritis as its adaptable if you are stiff and unbendy on certain joints, which I am.

justasking111 · 14/12/2021 22:00

We appear to be out of stock of lateral flow tests. So much for drakeford edict to flow and go. Testing everytime we left the house to ship, work or visit. Wonder what his next bright ideas will be

ISaySteadyOn · 15/12/2021 08:01

Weld you in your houses maybe? I believe Starmer thought that was a brilliant move on the part of the Chinese government.
/cynicism

Taswama · 15/12/2021 20:27

On a positive note, we had a lovely Christmas lunch with work colleagues. About 80% chose to attend including those who were quick to comply with the wfh advice on Thursday last week rather than waiting for Monday.

AlviarinAesSedai · 15/12/2021 20:35

Did Starmer really think being welded into your home a good idea? Can’t tell if joking or not. Can’t believe how many people are still desperate for be under house arrest.

justasking111 · 15/12/2021 22:47

Well look at Wales has to go one better 🙄 bah humbug from Friday

ADs and The Brave New World
WouldBeGood · 15/12/2021 22:54

Oh, fuck @justasking111

WouldBeGood · 15/12/2021 22:55

I think it will be coming everywhere. Definitely up here in Scotland

justasking111 · 15/12/2021 23:01

@WouldBeGood

I think it will be coming everywhere. Definitely up here in Scotland
You can't get a cigarette paper between Drakeford and sturgeon, with Gordon Brown pulling the strings of both
WouldBeGood · 15/12/2021 23:09

It’s so depressing @justasking111

justasking111 · 15/12/2021 23:45

It's all about saving the NHS which IMO is now terminal and they know it but don't have the bottle to fix it

ISaySteadyOn · 16/12/2021 05:59

I may be exaggerating about Starmer there but I know that as far as he was concerned, he felt the restrictions weren't harsh enough.

I don't know exactly how I feel about the NHS. When I first arrived here, I thought it was brilliant. But I think if a healthcare service starts asking you to protect its existence by not using it, then maybe there are problems with it and it could do with some changes.

LivinLaVidaLoki · 16/12/2021 06:49

Can I ask a really stupid question that I'm scared to ask over there......

If LFTs pick up when you're infectious (that's what we constantly get told) why can't we end isolation using LFT rather than the economy and infrastructure crippling 10 days?

110APiccadilly · 16/12/2021 07:05

To be fair, LFTs aren't all that accurate. So if you know you've had it 2 days ago, but you get a negative LFT, you might only have a 50-50 chance of not being infectious, say. (I can explain the maths if you'd like, it's a little complicated but I'll try if you want.)

ISaySteadyOn · 16/12/2021 09:04

Please do.

AlviarinAesSedai · 16/12/2021 09:58

Poor Wales! We haven’t got anyone to bubble with. Unless me and my DSis draw straws.
Is Wales going to pay furlough then?

Taswama · 16/12/2021 11:22

I think you can get false negatives with LFTs.
Did anyone see the thread yesterday from someone who gets positive LFTs every time with the newer version but the negative PCRs?

I was really tempted to suggest she just stop testing unless she actually had symptoms but wasn't brave enough.

110APiccadilly · 16/12/2021 11:43

@ISaySteadyOn

Please do.
Ok, I'll do my best. Warning: the numbers in this are not accurate as I don't know all the true numbers, but they should give you an idea of what the issue is.

All tests can give you a false positive or a false negative, but with some it's more likely than others. Urban legend suggests the LFTs have a high-ish false negative rate. I'm going to use 10% for this- so that would mean that if you have Covid, you have a 90% probability of a positive LFT and a 10% probability of a negative one. (I suspect it's actually less than 10%, but 10% is a nice easy number to work with.)

Now, what you actually want to know is not the rate of false negatives, but what the chance is that you do in fact have Covid even though you've had a negative test result. And that depends on how likely you are to have Covid in the first place. So in the general population, a certain proportion have Covid today - I haven't looked this up but it's in the order of magnitude of 1%. So let's say, in the absence of any further information, there's a 1% chance you have Covid right now.

If you've had a positive PCR a few days ago, the chance you have Covid right now will be quite a lot higher. I really don't know what this is, but for ease of calculation let's say it's 90%.

Now, take 1000 people from the general population. Of those, we'd expect 1%, that is 10, to have Covid. Of those 10 people, 90% (or 9) will test positive and 1 will test negative. If, for the sake of making the maths easier, we assume that there are no false positives, all the 990 people who don't have Covid will also test negative. So we have 9 people who've tested positive, and 991 (made up of 990 people who don't have Covid, and one who does) who've tested negative. That means, if you have a negative test result, your chance of being the 1 false negative is only 1 in 991, or about 0.1%. You don't really need to stress too much about this, it's a pretty low chance.

Now, take 1000 people who've had positive PCR tests in the last few days. We're going to assume 90%, or 900, of them are in fact positive. We test everyone with an LFT, and 90% of our positive cases, or 810 of them, test positive, while the remaining 90 test negative. We're going to assume again that all the 100 people who are negative test negative. So we've got 190 people who've tested negative, of whom 90 do in fact have Covid. So now, if you get a negative result, your chance of having Covid is 90 out of 190, or about 47.4%. That's a much higher chance that you do have Covid, even though your test says you don't.

I hope that makes sense. It's easier to explain to people in person when I can draw diagrams!

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