WTF is happening in Afghanistan?

[nc8765]

Kabul will fall soon, and the Taliban will control the whole country.

The rights of women and girls will go back to the dark ages, along with rights for any other liberal view/s. In a few years, the UN will declare a humanitarian crisis and then what, we're back to square one?

The US is highly unlikely to commit to troops, same goes for us here in the UK. What about China? Surely a stable Middle East is in their best interest? Russia? The other 'stan nations??

I understand there are Afghans that do prefer life under the Taliban, but surely that's a small minority group?

I'm not a foreign affairs expert so would really like some help on this one!

@Panickingpavlova

Ok there are 7 colours in the rainbow, blue.

Bloody ridiculous. Their comment was more like -

There are 7 colours in the rainbow, one of them is blue. There are also red, yellow, green and more.

How are you managing to continue this ludicrous assertion that PP focused on one issue when they have repeatedly quoted their own post proving the opposite.

Wouldnt it be easier just to admit you read it wrong and move on ?

I think China will play a bigger part in what happens next. They have a land border with Afghanistan and a recent history of unfavourable treatment of Muslims. I am sure I heard they have had diplomatic talks with someone from the Taliban.

lindanorgrovefoundation.org/

Linda was a friend from school. Her parents set the Foundation up in her memory

Sorry sent too soon

"The Linda Norgrove Foundation is a trust that gives grants to fund education, health and childcare for women and children affected by the war in Afghanistan."

It's a disaster for women and young girls, the violent and misogynistic nature of Islamist extremism in all of its forms of expression – from the Taliban, to Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Boko Haram, al-Shebaab – these groups are across significant parts of Asia and Africa.

However, let's not forget our responsibilities in adding to this mess for those we leave behind there. We sent our army there, we provided arms and money, and when the going got tough (as it always was going to) we decided to leave. A very easy decision for us. I'm totally ashamed of our participation in these adventures.

These are the most relevant actors in the neighbourhood:

Pakistan
Iran
China
Russia
India

Then there is Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the Gulf states, which are involved in a variety of ways, some very unhelpful.

Then there is the US, UK, NATO, etc., who may disengage to a great extent but will continue to have an interest in counter-terrorism.

That is a lot of external intervention for a country a bit larger than France.

Saudi arabia and UAE are some of the richest in the world, and the only powers who have any likelihood of understanding the local context/ nuances/ issues of these countries.

Its in their interests to sort it out, and so I think we should all leave them to it.

Oh yes, just like they have sorted out Yemen.

Where are Taliban getting all the weaponry? Who's arming them?

They are seizing weapons from the Afghan army.

@frumpety

I think China will play a bigger part in what happens next. They have a land border with Afghanistan and a recent history of unfavourable treatment of Muslims. I am sure I heard they have had diplomatic talks with someone from the Taliban.

What a grim thought.

Out of the frying pan for Afghanistan - on both counts.

The suffering of these people gives a whole new meaning to those complaining and getting angry about masks in the western world.
My heart weeps for these families....women and children. 😭 they just want to live and go to school.

"the going got tough and we left"

I suggest you watch a brilliant documentary called "this is what winning looks like" following marines around trying to help local police forces shore up agaisnt the taliban.

It's a loosing game.

There are or were around 130000 trained afghan soldiers with slightly better American weapons v 80000 poorly armed taliban

The taliban are just utterly ruthless.

The british link is nonsense, its like those going on about oil. Its not actually that complex-an Islamic insurgency formed to fight the soviet invasion wants to rule the place. Google photos of afghanistan pre 1978 you'l be shocked. It was a functional normal state.

The US gave up after their Pakistan bust up in 2012. If they wanted to beat them thats where they should have gone. Turkmenistan and China are already going mad sending troops to their afghan borders so i think they may intervene, especially with china's Uighar genocide in progress

The british link is nonsense, its like those going on about oil. Its not actually that complex-an Islamic insurgency formed to fight the soviet invasion wants to rule the place. Google photos of afghanistan pre 1978 you'l be shocked. It was a functional normal state.

Not quite. The Soviet Union invaded because the marionette government of Babrak Karmal was getting destabilised by the Mujahideen. The Mujahideen were then used by the US against the Soviets and the merry go round of violence kept turning.

Taliban bought arms whilst in power but a lot came from the balkan wars via muhajadeen and pakistan. Some rumours the Russians supply their ammunition

Oh please, it's not that simple

The Taliban are NOT the same as the mujahidin. After the end of the Soviet war, the Afghan resistance split into different factions and have been fighting pretty much ever since.

Afghanistan pre-1978 was a modern state in Kabul and some cities but still incredibly under-developed and traditional in the countryside, and it depended heavily on foreign assistance. It was not a 'modern functional state', it was obviously in better shape than it is now but it had severe challenges

And if you think Turkmenistan is going to invade Afghanistan, I mean where do you even start

China is not going to invade either. If anything they are most likely to recognise the Taliban government and strike some deals.

Of course it's not simple, I don't anyone is under the illusion that it is. And to expect that the last 20 years will radically turn it around and drag it into the 21th century was misguided, to say the least.

Was there ever an exit plan?

@ChardonnaysPetDragon I was replying to Broz's post saying 'it's not that complex', so clearly some people do think it's pretty simple

It all feels pretty hopeless.
I've wonders if the Americans wouldn't have been better to flood the nation with schools..

In the documentary "this is what winning looks like"

They say, there was an assumption that people were educated, could read, had engineers amongst their number.

A major spoke of the hopelessness of having set ups, they set up but that just can't function. Eg petrol drum for petrol but they can't get petrol so they can't patrol and keep the taliban at bay.

Or solar panels, that arnt hooked up and no one knows how to to hook them up. So many little things adding up to failure.
Trying to work in a corrupt system eg the major talks to the police chief about how he needs to help stop the practise of stealing and raping "tea boys" young boys stolen from from communities for rape.

He says if you keep stealing boys the community will keep distrusting the police. The chief says yes let's do it then doesn't.
Police chiefs dissappear, those who are sacked pay bribes and come back.. They try and train more police men to fill sand bags, fight.. They are so off their faces on herion they fall asleep whilst filling a bag..

The only way I can see to get everyone's on the same page is literally to get them educated... Bring them up.. Morally, literally, skills etc.

Then throw herion into the mix..

@Panickingpavlova, I've seen that several years ago. My uncle completed 2 tours there, and he recommended it for some insight.

He strongly recommends Loyns book "In Afghanistan: Two Hundred Years of British, Russian and American Occupation", so you see our involvement in historical context.

@Panickingpavlova

Omg, it's also complex because of the root of a nasty evil medieval version of Islam that the perps puporte to support which Pakistan secretly funds and Saudi Arabia.

The cultures and morals within the country are highly questionable agaisnt western standard of liberty and the rights of the child.

I basically agree with this, except I don't think the support of the Taliban by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia is a secret, I think it's open and blatant. No idea why the US just ignores this, it honestly makes no sense to me, there was never any hope of defeating the Taliban when Pakistan was allowing them to regroup, train, and cross the border whenever they wanted to .Not to mention Saudi Arabia sending them huge quantities of money...

@ChardonnaysPetDragon I was replying to Broz's post saying 'it's not that complex', so clearly some people do think it's pretty simple

Sorry, I misread your post!

Thinking it’s all simple and it can be solved is what’s brought us here.

There is a saying in a cult Russian film “Восток дело тонкое* which roughly means “The East is complicated matter ” and right they were.

Turkmenistan Sending Heavy Weaponry, Aircraft To Afghan Border Amid Deteriorating Security www.rferl.org/a/turkmenistan-border-afghanistan-weaponry/31352997.html

@BrozTito

The british link is nonsense, its like those going on about oil. Its not actually that complex-an Islamic insurgency formed to fight the soviet invasion wants to rule the place. Google photos of afghanistan pre 1978 you'l be shocked. It was a functional normal state.

Wow - a new level of ignorance on display here. You clearly don’t know what you’re talking about if you think this is true.

Or are you just an ill-informed racist who just hates anything related to Islam and uses the “because they’re muslim” to explain everything?

If we leave them to it over there they will eventually come here and do more terror attacks in London etc. It's a massive mistake to pull out