WTF is happening in Afghanistan?

[nc8765]

Kabul will fall soon, and the Taliban will control the whole country.

The rights of women and girls will go back to the dark ages, along with rights for any other liberal view/s. In a few years, the UN will declare a humanitarian crisis and then what, we're back to square one?

The US is highly unlikely to commit to troops, same goes for us here in the UK. What about China? Surely a stable Middle East is in their best interest? Russia? The other 'stan nations??

I understand there are Afghans that do prefer life under the Taliban, but surely that's a small minority group?

I'm not a foreign affairs expert so would really like some help on this one!

@21Bee

I asked my husband who works in international relations about this yesterday. His basic explanation was that even if Britain and America pulled out in a few years, the Taliban are just waiting until they leave to come back. They can’t stay indefinitely and at some point the Afghan government have to take over.

The Afghan government forces have received a lot of training from our military and it at some point has to be up to them. They are still receiving a lot of support from Britain and America however in terms of things like air support and equipment.

I’m sure this is a simplistic explanation but it’s the one he gave me 😂

That's more or less right. It is a classic insurgent strategy (strategic patience) you can live in stalemate for years before finally being able to go for decisive victory.

There is apparently an Afghan saying directed at foreign troops: you have the wristwatches, but we have the time.

i.e. foreign troops will have to leave eventually, the Taliban can wait them out forever basically

They are still receiving a lot of support from Britain and America however in terms of things like air support

Is this true? Bagram airbase has been closed down, and I'm not sure the Afghan Army now has much, if any, access to the air power that they did previously - crucial for them to fight off the Taliban.

www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000z2cd/bbc-news-special-afghanistan-an-endless-war
This was on yesterday

@MarshaBradyo

Dreaming what numbers are you thinking?

And how would you decide who

Well the UK government has offered British citizenship to 3 million people from Hong Kong, who are in much less danger than Afghans are now. So I would hope they would offer refuge to a great many Afghans as well.

In terms of priority I would say:

Anyone who worked with foreign forces and agencies, they will be the first ones shot (this is a certainty, not a possibility)

Women and children (as the most threatened)

Anyone at personal risk due to their ethnicity or livelihood or history of service

It doesn't have to be the UK that takes everyone, there should be a coordinated European and American response

It just reminds me of the US fleeing Vietnam and all the Vietnamese who had worked with them being shot or put into reeducation camps.

@21Bee

I asked my husband who works in international relations about this yesterday. His basic explanation was that even if Britain and America pulled out in a few years, the Taliban are just waiting until they leave to come back. They can’t stay indefinitely and at some point the Afghan government have to take over.

The Afghan government forces have received a lot of training from our military and it at some point has to be up to them. They are still receiving a lot of support from Britain and America however in terms of things like air support and equipment.

I’m sure this is a simplistic explanation but it’s the one he gave me 😂

I think you're right in saying this is simplistic. Tom Tugendhat sums it up well here from this article: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58198340

Tom Tugendhat, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, said Afghan forces had "stepped up" in recent years, allowing Nato to end its involvement in the fighting and bringing an end to British casualties from combat.
"Now we've just pulled the rug from under them," he said. "We've taken away their air support, taken away their logistics."
Mr Tugendhat said the war had cost £40bn and taken the lives of more than 450 British soldiers, but he said the future commitment would have only been for 750 soldiers as part of a 10,000-strong Nato force, assisting 400,000 Afghan security forces.
He contrasted the decision in Afghanistan to post-war Germany, where UK troops were only withdrawn in 1991. "Endurance matters, staying matters, being an ally matters," Mr Tugendhat said.
"It now looks like 20 years later, 9/11 will be the anniversary of the Taliban taking complete control of the whole of Afghanistan, something they didn't achieve 20 years ago.
"That's because we have undermined civil institutions and we have left the place weaker."

Dreaming whilst I absolutely agree we should take something refugees, don't you think countries who share the same cultures should really be looking after them?

If I was a refugee I'd much rather be taken in by a western country rather than be pushed into Pakistan or Saudi?

@Panickingpavlova

Dreaming whilst I absolutely agree we should take something refugees, don't you think countries who share the same cultures should really be looking after them?

If I was a refugee I'd much rather be taken in by a western country rather than be pushed into Pakistan or Saudi?

Countries with the same culture ARE already taking care of them, there are more than 1 million refugees in Iran, nearly 3 million in Pakistan

(This is the same the world over btw, most refugees from African conflicts are living in other African countries)

The US and NATO countries bear some responsibility for the situation and should bear some of the consequences

Indeed and be sensitive to the culture of the refugees.

Saudi arabia and UAE are some of the richest in the world, and the only powers who have any likelihood of understanding the local context/ nuances/ issues of these countries.

Its in their interests to sort it out, and so I think we should all leave them to it.

I think it all very well hoping the UK will accept Afghan refugees (which I 100% agree they should do) but I think this is terrible time in history to be a refugee as most countries have governments and people who have hardened against them, no mater the dangers they are fleeing

This government is however not even quickly allowing many Afghan translators who worked with the army to relocate here with their families. It is despicable, it really is
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/06/afghan-interpreters-britain-racist-history-of-denial-afghanistan

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/afghan-interpreters-fear-for-lives-of-families-left-behind-taliban-trgvg0d0v

www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nick-ferrari/afghanistan-translator-defence-secretary/ - labour claimed around two-thirds of Afghans who supported British forces during the country's involvement in Afghanistan could still be unaccounted for and under threat.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57990020

@LemonSwan

Saudi arabia and UAE are some of the richest in the world, and the only powers who have any likelihood of understanding the local context/ nuances/ issues of these countries.

Its in their interests to sort it out, and so I think we should all leave them to it.

Why on earth would Saudi Arabia and UAE be aware of cultural issues in Afghanistan?

And when you say “we should all leave them to it” who are “them” - Muslims?

Your post is astonishingly racist and ignorant and of course completely devoid of humanity.

@LemonSwan

Saudi arabia and UAE are some of the richest in the world, and the only powers who have any likelihood of understanding the local context/ nuances/ issues of these countries.

Its in their interests to sort it out, and so I think we should all leave them to it.

WTF?! I don't even know where to start with this!

You can call it racist all you like, but its quite clear we (the west) cause a shit show every time we get involved, because at some point we have to leave.

Yes they are muslim countries, and these are religious wars.

Its like saying America are far more likely to have positive influence on the Irish IRA issues (Catholic/ Protestant) than say for example UAE or Saudi Arabia.

Where are Taliban getting all the weaponry? Who's arming them?

It was Saudi Arabia who initially funded the mujahidin, who supported the original Taliban, who supported bin Laden. They are not going to 'sort out' Afghanistan. They are going to use it for their own ends, like everyone else.

Lemon Swan

New York Times has very interesting article on how right how Afghanistan is begging Saudi for help because its on both sides, publicly denouncing the taliban whilst privalty funding them.
Apparently many in the afghan government are them as saviour's

Its like saying America are far more likely to have positive influence on the Irish IRA issues (Catholic/ Protestant) than say for example UAE or Saudi Arabia.
Yes, America really helps with the problems in Ireland

Btw I think this is a really good explanation of why it's been so difficult to end the wars in Afghanistan:

warontherocks.com/2018/02/theses-peacemaking-afghanistan-manifesto/

Essentially Afghanistan has always had external powers messing in its affairs, and while they would all benefit from a stable Afghanistan they cannot tolerate others having a more advantageous position there, so there is just an endless round of proxy fighting.

It's really important to recognise that it is external countries driving these wars, for their own interests.

Scautish has a point.

To amplify a hint I dropped in another thread..

Far too many people are far too willing to consistently blame the US/UK/Russians even Chinese for current events in Afghanistan but often as not Pakistan seems to escape any censure at all.

They are obviously not to blame for borders drawn up maybe a century ago but some there sure as heck haven’t simply been disinterested bystanders over the last twenty, thirty or forty years….there is plenty of blame to go around.

Thanks @dreamingbohemian and @Panickingpavlova

I am not going to pretend to know whats really going on, but thats the point I am trying to make.

Why I think the America/ IRA situation is quite an apt comparison the more I think about it.

Many countries have had involvement there esp Russians etc.

The Russians had their arse handed to them, yet the Americans didn't learn from that.

Same mistake, an even worse mess now.

@Panickingpavlova

Dreaming whilst I absolutely agree we should take something refugees, don't you think countries who share the same cultures should really be looking after them?

If I was a refugee I'd much rather be taken in by a western country rather than be pushed into Pakistan or Saudi?

You've already had some very good responses. Refugees who end up in western countries, remembering most don't, do so for all sorts of complex reasons. Sometimes it is because they are still not safe in adjacent countries. The taliban have fingers beyond the Afghan border. It especially difficult for those who helped UK or US forces, or those for instance who are gay. Others have connections in western countries already - people who can help them settle into life.

There isn't one culture in Afghanistan, just like there isn't one culture in England. If you are saying that muslims should take care of muslims, that doesn't seem very enlightened.

@Okaygreatthanks

What is the best way to support afghani women and girls? Is there a specific charity? For refugees maybe?

Is so unbelievably fucking awful.

Good question have been looking for this also

My heart is breaking watching the news 😢😢😢

We are going full circle for the umpteenth time. That is what’s happening.