Do you think there will be a 2 week national lockdown over oct half term

[Lardlizard]

As I want to make some plans but I’m unsure what’s happening

I don't see how it would work in practice across the UK when holidays aren't standardised. We start a 2 week half term this Friday, for example (Scotland).

There's been a lot of chatter about it, I think something of that ilk is likely but it could be sooner, or longer - who knows.

I think probably and I wouldn’t book anything. Highly likely local lockdowns will be implemented even if not. We want to go away next weekend to a nearby city but haven’t booked in case of local lockdown.

I don't think a national set of restrictions, but local ones could scupper any plans.

While the October break isn't standardised across England, it's not likely there'll be more than 2 weeks variation is there? It's not like with Easter where some places do it at the same time every year and others follow the actual feast date so there can be big differences.

That being said, no I don't think so. The detrimental impact to the tourist industry would be massive. More likely there'd be a national ban on socialising in private homes, since the preferred and most convenient narrative seems to be that this is the driver, and possibly more local lockdowns.

Spring half term saw a big rise in transmission, apparently, because everyone moved around the country seeing family etc. So yes, I think there might be. That would be why you'd make it two weeks, to cover as many schools as possible. You might also ask schools to shut for two weeks.
Most universities have reading weeks, so it wouldn't be crazy to align that with a national lockdown. Or to put all seminars which could be online online for that week.
TBH, I'll be surprised if universities are still open by the end of October.

I think probably not; because if you have a two week half term to reduce infections, you’re admitting that schools being open is a source of infections. I suspect they’ll keep going with local lockdowns, particularly where the harshest lockdowns are affecting predominantly Labour voters, for slightly too long and end up having to enforce a full nation wide lockdown close to Christmas, causing more economic and social disruption than if they’d taken more moderate measures earlier.

No, I don't there will be, for the simple reason that most areas of the UK are absolutely fine. The large numbers of cases are in clearly defined areas and most of those have already been locked down locally.

@Lardlizard

I don’t think anyone person definitely knows Even Boris probably doesn’t But I’m just trying to get a feel of people’s general views

Boris certainly doesn't know.

Yes, I think it is highly likely we will be locked down then but things change day to day. In your place I wouldn't risk booking anything.

On a positive note, cases have been rising for the last month and we are still only on average c 6,000 per day. The projection of 50,000 per day by mid October a couple of weeks ago looks to have been very much overstated and cases are doubling more like every 10-14 days rather than every 7 (or every 3 as in feb/March) . Covid didn't kick off in this country until a few weeks after February half term (it started in italy just after this) and 4 weeks later we had an estimated 100,000 cases per day and had to lock down totally. In context, there is absolutely no need to lockdown, and the speed of the spread, while probably faster than ideal, is very much reduced by current measures.

I don't think there will be a lockdown as per the lockdown we had in March etc. I think, as other pp have said they will apply the greater restriction of "don't go in other people's houses or gardens" nationally. They cant shut down the hospitality sector again, it would be a disaster. Wonder what they will do as regards people flying abroad though? Maybe we will go back to essential travel only? But that would really bring the travel industry to its knees even more then it is.
DS has a 2 week half term anyway. we have booked a few days away in another town in England with the full knowledge that there's a high risk we will have to cancel. Made sure the cancellation policy was right up to near the date of going so we can make a decision then whether to go or not.

No because there is not an even spread nationally.

There are areas that need a circuit break now (rumours are around that Merseyside is soon) and others in the south west with such low cases that to one is pointless

It would be an abject failure of any track/trace/testing system is we have to apply things nationally again

I expect at some point most areas may well have to a circuit break (dependent I guess on how effective it is in the first instance) but not all at the same time

Also there is no standard half term. I have a Primary and High School children and they both have a two week half term but not the same so at the moment it covers 3 weeks

@Tfoot75 The Zoe app reckons there are about 20,000 new cases per day at the moment - tests are difficult to get and many people won't be bothering.

@zafferana

No, I don't there will be, for the simple reason that most areas of the UK are absolutely fine. The large numbers of cases are in clearly defined areas and most of those have already been locked down locally.

1/4 of the country is in a local lockdown though. And that might be about to go up.

IMO no

I think that some areas of the country eg where universities are based and infections have risen (maybe limit the partying in those areas as they are attempting to) need attention. However, lots of the country doesn't have a major rise in infections and therefore IMO no need for extra measures there at all.

It's a bit like when one child/person cannot follow rules punishing everyone - it's leads to resentment and ultimately will not be followed.

Just an opinion though.

@GreyishDays

• therefore 3/4's of the country doesn't have a problem so perhaps why 'punish' them?

'1/4 of the country is in a local lockdown though'

There is a rising sense of panic and I think something will need to be done

@fourteafallout
Hooray

I thought I was the only who still used the expression. All that jazz.

On the subject of another upcoming lock down, I reckon there could be one even before October half term, or a week or two leading upto and also including Christmas. Another lock down is very likely to happen and also the closure of non essential shops. But then I reckon, a right fuss will be kicked up on that, regarding Xmas shopping. I am Muslim, so don't have to worry about Christmas at all really. But I think we could be going in for another lock down and the government would probably keep schools open for vulnerable kids like learning disabilities and so on, or key worker children. I'd prefer to keep my little ones off as two out of three at school are vulnerable with health issues and actually benefitted a lot from home learning.
Saying that, I'd prefer not to go for another lock down. But sadly no one is bothering with the social distancing. My Instagram is chock a block with everyone going to illegal parties and barbecues and weddings and christenings and so on. And I can appreciate and understand that you want to go to your brothers wedding etc. But taking pictures of yourself hugging all the babies and family members, young and old isn't exactly social distancing and looking out for each other. Then there's the illegal Street parties where everyone is going about with everyone dancing and grinding. It's just shocking that no one cares anymore. I think some people have the mentality of oh, I am young and fit, it won't happen to me. But it can happen to anyone just like cancer or an accident that leaves you hospitalised. We had a rather quiet summer holidays. Indoors doing arts and crafts and puzzles and movies and so on, its much better than going out risking yourself because even going shopping people were barging past me and my children in the aisles. It's very sad. The other week we had a group of literally 40 teenagers in the court yard of a block of flats, drunk and hollering, yelling and kissing. Some scattrred off after about 2am leaving at least 10 teens huddled together snogging and drinking ... Police came by if you can believe this, spoke to them for literally 10 seconds if that and drove off...

I just want all this to die down. Its down to us to make the changes.

Someone play Tupac. Haha

20, 000 cases a day? What was the estimated number per day at the peak? 100,000? So if we double every week it will only take 2-3 weeks til we are back to that

@VintageStitchers

Fucking Just stay at home and utilise your nearest parks.

How hard is that?

I’m sick of people booking holidays In touristy places and potentially bringing Covid with them. We’ve already had to stay away from our local parks and beaches all summer but I had hoped we might get the opportunity to go for walks during half term without having annoying visitors turning up in their droves and leaving all their mess behind for the locals to pick up.

Selfish fuckers.

I’m sick of people living in tourist areas then moaning about tourists.

Fucking move then. You don’t own the area. Selfish fuckers.

@Chewbecca

I hope not but fear yes.

I have 2 x 2 night UK breaks booked in October. Neither in areas with high numbers. (Both looooong arranged btw).

I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with going on vacations within the country (I have my views and will keep thise to myself). But local lockdown areas (or at least the one I'm in NW England) everything is still open, pubs and restaurants close at 10pm (same as they do everywhere), the only thing is we can't mix households in houses and gardens legally and it is strongly advised not to do this in venues...not much of a lockdown 🤷🏼‍♀️

No no no, please no 😢

I thought it was common knowledge that there was going to be a 2 week circuit breaker lockdown over half term unless numbers started to lower.

Nice to hear it's not certain yet.

I don’t think 2 week lockdown would be effective, which means it would backfire.

Even if everyone stayed home and didn’t mix, if someone had just been infected with COVID at the start of the 2 weeks, possibly asymptotic, it could well still be doing the rounds of the rest of the house at the end of 2 weeks.

It might put infections back a few weeks but then we’d go back to increasing infections after.

Plus I doubt you’d have high compliance at this stage.

@PopsicleHustler

I reckon there could be one even before October half term

How does that work when some parts of the UK start half term later this week?