Cloth masks are worse and may increase the rate of infection.

[AnaadiNitya]

Carl Heneghan is a clinical epidemiologist with expertise in evidence-based medicine, research methods, and evidence synthesis.
He is Director of the NIHR SPCR Evidence Synthesis Working Group a collaboration of nine primary care departments across UK universities. He set up and directs the Oxford COVID Evidence Service, has over 400 peer-reviewed publications (current H Index 67); published 95 systematic reviews. He is Editor in Chief of BMJ Evidence-Based Medicine, and Editor of the Catalogue of Bias.

He recently attended an online
aCOVID 19 special response committee meeting. He is saying there is no evidence these masks work especially in the way we are being told to wear them.

Here is the video

I thought everybody new that it's not about eliminating the risks 100%, it's about reducing transmission rate. The condom analogy is useless. I don't think that we can reduce the risks of transmission for covid to 0. But using masks, plus hand washing, plus social distancing, plus track and trace, plus isolate if you have symptoms, all those combined will reduce the risks.

I think that the reopening of pubs and restaurants has had a much bigger impact on transmission than the decision to impose the wearing of masks, that's just common sense. But hey, there will always be anti-maskers trying to find a scientist to back them up, when all the other scientists and evidence is pointing in the other direction.

@ThickFast

gamerchick snap. I find videos so annoying. Can you watch it for me and summarise? Pretty please?

Same here. I can't stand videos. Won't watch them. I want to read.

@iseeu

“in terms of real evidence look at Czechia. The only country requiring masks (cloth being better than nothing) from the outset for everyone and a tiny tiny tiny fraction of deaths and cases.”

A correlation is not proof of causation.

There could be a lot of factors that relate to low case numbers in Czechia. Including the fact there are only 10 million people there and it has less than half the population density of the UK.
Another factor that is completely ignored is population age.
Czechia average population age at 41 but Italy’s is 45.

It is far more complex than a simple statement of ‘they wore masks, therefore masks work’.

Cloth masks on the public are a total joke IMO. I only wear it because it's the law and to keep other people happy.

If you actually look at what Joe Public generally do with their masks, you'll find:

Cloth mask never ever washed - one kept in car at all times so that if needed for entry to shop, petrol station, post office etc, it can be got out. For show essentially. Zero hygiene measures. People pulling and touching masks, loads.

Transmission reduced with social distancing and lockdown. Not masks.

@PickACoolUserName

Fabric masks are security theatre. Gives the public a visible indication that the government are DOING SOMETHING.

Avoiding contact with people outside of your household is still the best way to stop the spread. But there is a need to balance that against the need to have a functioning economy to pay for the NHS. So fabric masks it is!

This!

Ok if you don't accept the data from the Czech Republic re. face masks because of population density and average age, take a look at Japan.

Covid cases in Japan, 56,717, median age 47.3

Covid cases in the UK, 320,000+, median age 40.5

I can't stand videos for this sort of information either, I need to read to take in the information so I haven't watched.

I'm guilty of keeping a cloth mask in my bag and not washing it every day. But I'm mainly only touching it by the ear elastics, washing my hands thoroughly and frequently, using hand sanitiser every time I enter or leave a shop, still trying to maintain 2m distance etc so I think it's a lot better than nothing.

Here's some evidence to the contrary. They tested various types of masks, and if you click on the link within that article (I've also linked to it below) to view the actual study, you can see that cloth masks were massively better than no mask, and only slightly worse than surgical masks. For those interested, here's the graph which shows those results.

(Yes that was a link to a news article summary but you can view the more serious scientific paper here if you're interested in the methodology, it's also linked to in the article)

What I do find bizarre in general is that people are happy to question many professionals that don't agree with the professionals that are guiding our government! As someone else said science is about a concensus, put 15 scientists in a room and you will get 15 different theories! I do think that people are questioning some of the main ones involved in the decision making in many countries recently due to them being proved inaccurate before, not involved in their field apart from in an office based setting and seeing where their money comes from! I do find the fact that 'if you cough or sneeze a piece of cloth will protect others' a bit odd as I was always taught to cough or sneeze into a tissue in your hand then bin it then wash your hands? Also with the talking/spittle thing, how often are you that close to someone that they inhale your breath whilst talking? Another point which I do believe has been talked about alot recently is wearing any type of mask apart from hospital grade ones will get damp due to breath and sweat and are more likely to hold any particles especially virulent ones and cause the wearer an infection based on the mixture of many particles in a confined space? Finally again only my opinion based on my research I believed that a 'viral load' was based on a large does of a virus being projected into your system either at once or over a very short amount of time? Which was why nurses and Dr's got very ill without ppe as they were inhaling many peoples virus in a close proximity quickly? The same for those in care homes and those that I know that got very ill travelling on a plane with others in a close proximity? Happy to be disproved on anything as I said just my opinion based on my research! (did loads as have been very bored in lockdown!! 😂) xx

Also I think it's pretty obvious that they at least block some of your exhaled moisture from entering your surroundings. To say that they don't help at all is just totally false. You can easily test this while wearing them yourself: firstly, after a while they become damp from your breath (you're supposed to change it to a fresh one at this point) and that is moisture which would otherwise have gone into in the air and be inhaled by people around you. Secondly if you hold a hand a few centimetres in front of your mouth when exhaling you can feel your breath on your hand, do the same with a cloth mask and you feel either nothing, or nowhere near as much (depending on the type of cloth mask, the fabric, how many layers etc).

Oooh yes about reducing the viral load. Sorry to those who don't like videos but this video explains that www.facebook.com/watch/?v=315507746154490&extid=ALIZtaNzsxEjJwAU

I have several cloth masks that have a pouch across the whole mask that you put in disposable “filters”

Cloth masks I can see are not exactly great on their own but with the added oblong of quite stiff slim “filter” that doesn’t have any holes in I think are safer.

@QueenBlueberries
It’s not about accepting data or otherwise.
Correlation still isn’t causation.

Japan has one the lowest rates of obesity and coronary heart disease in the world.

People with the above conditions are 12 times more likely to die if they catch Covid.

My point is that it’s not as simple as picking mask wearing as one factor out of many and saying it’s proof.

@itsgettingweird

I also prefer written form (and I'm dyslexic!)

Reason is you can scan back and forth and use the numbers and explanations to inform your own thinking and opinion.

When watching a video unless you treat it like a uni lecture and take down notes it's hard to remember fact and figure number 23 and compare it to no1.

And I've done uni once - that was enough

They also are so slow! I can read so much faster.

Tinytornado, I guessed it, you've find another set of comparable.

The difference in cases is absolutely huge and obesity doesn't explain it. Obesity explains deaths, not infection rate. You are not more likely to become infected with Covid if you are fat, you are more likely to die from it.

It's on the internet, so it must be true! Where there's smoke, there's fire!

We should all be wearing industrial grade PPE, disposable preferably, so we can all live to see how much we fucked the environment because of this.

What @nocoolnamesleft said - cloth masks reduce transmission from the wearer, not to the wearer. If @AnaadiNitya can't even grasp that I don't see any point arguing the toss.

The problem with single layer material masks is because the holes in the material are actually quite big so if u breathe out heavily droplets will be broken up into smaller particles and can hang in the air longer thereby making transmission of virus easier. Two layer are a bit better and three layer are the best or ones with a replaceable filter. The over riding evidence is that masks do work.

Isn't the point that they catch some of the cough/sneeze/breath?

So many people just have a good old cough or sneeze into the air around them. If they coughed or sneezed into a tissue it wouldn't be the equivalent of a surgical mask but it would catch the worst of it.

But many people don't or, get caught with an unexpected cough or sneeze, so the the mask is the equivalent of a hanky or tissue being held in front of their noses and mouths just in case.

Your title is misleading. Here is a transcript of what he actually said in this short, out of context clip -

In 2010, at the height of the last pandemic, there was six published trials on about 4000 people. Since then, what we've done is not address the lack of evidence and close that gap. So in the intervening ten years there has been about another six trials. If we look at all them twelve trials together, what they show in health care professionals, is that actually masks, gloves, combination of PPE, reduces your risk of infection.

When you go into the wider population, there's a small bit of evidence that if you have influenza in your household, a child, and you wear masks at one week in the house, you can reduce your risk of influenza-like illness by about ten percent. However, you have to completely adhere to the mask wearing for the whole week. If you stop adhering, as 50% of people did, you lose all of the effect. So that's one of the problems.

The second issue then is, the evidence that shows the comparison of cloth masks to surgical masks, or the N95's, shows clearly that cloth masks are worse, and they may actually increase your risk of infection. Therefore that's why they're not recommended in hospitals or in health professional settings.

So what happens in these situations is, of uncertainty, the opinion divides - 'I think masks are a good idea' - 'I don't think - I shouldn't wear them'. And that's where we end up with people proposing more and more. They're saying put them on in schools, put them on in pubs, put them on in shops. But there's no clear evidence. They used observational data to inform the decision.

Now, if you look at what's happened in the UK for instance, we put masks in on 24 of July. They were supposed to reduce the risk of infection by 40% within the next two weeks. In fact, infections detected have gone up, so in effect people are not looking at the evidence.

Now, when Norway looked at this, they looked at it and said that at low circulation, the public health consequences are so minimal that actually it's not clear that they work and even if they did work, we reckon about 200,000 people would have to wear a mask, probably for a week, to prevent one infection.

Now, that's how you have to think about the uncertainty. If you're going to put a policy in place, that's fine. What you can't do is say it's evidence based, because when people talk about the evidence, they have again cherry-picked low quality, observational evidence to suit the argument. But they haven't picked then further observational - so, for instance, if you put masks in, what are you expecting to happen to the case definitions and the reductions in the next two to four weeks, to show it was a worthwhile policy to enact?

Thank you.

How come they stop outgoing droplets but not incoming? Surely if fabric creates a barrier it works both ways?

I have wondered this. I think - but I may be wrong - the droplets may go through your mask but they don’t project far, falling on the mask or just a bit beyond? That is why they protect others more than the wearer?

There are literally hundreds of cloth masks. Ranging from what is someones old bed sheet to multiple layer with carbon filters.

Also not being medically trained most people are probably wearing them a wrong too. Goes for all types of masks. Bow effective are any if them after they have been sat on a car seat in the sun fir hours or screwed up in a pocket or left on the sofa amd sat on.

This was the issue with gloves too wasnt it? That unless u use them correctly they spread more infection than bare hands because people assume they are protected then touch everything spreading the virus.

Also seen plenty of the disposable ones snap. No point in a medical grade mask if the bloody strap snaps and you have no mask.

Also absolutely sick of seeing all the gloves and disposable masks thrown on the ground. In hedges. In lakes and oceans. Everywhere you go filthy arseholes have dropped them on the floor. Not protecting anyone being eaten by pigeons are they.

If we survive this we will then just be buried under piles of masks.

I'll still be using my cloth mask.

The filter ones are not supposed to be good, if you have covid apparently your shooting it at others via your filter.

Roswell, I've been putting mine on the the dashboard in sun after wearing for uv light rays to kill the virus.

The video is part of Carl Heneghan's testimony to Ireland's Special Committee on COVID-19 response. Transcripts of all the expert testimony is available at the link below.

Professor Anthony Staines from the school of nursing, psychotherapy and community health at Dublin City University, DCU; and Professor Patricia Kearney, professor of epidemiology at the school of public health in University College Cork, UCC. Joining us from London on a link is Professor Susan Michie, professor of health psychology and director of the centre for behavioural change, University College London.…We also hope to be joined presently on a Microsoft Teams link by Professor Carl Heneghan, to whom I spoke to a moment ago. Professor Heneghan is director of the centre for evidence-based medicine at the University of Oxford.

www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates/debate/special_committee_on_covid-19_response/2020-08-13/4/

For those who question whether Carl has anything to do with the Uni of Oxford:

Carl Heneghan is Professor of EBM (Evidence Based Medicine) & Director of CEBM (Centre for Evidence Based Medicine) at the University of Oxford. He is also an Urgent Care GP.

CEBM is producing many of the very useful evidence reviews for COVID19.