D = fn + (p x 0) then AD = - fn - (p x 0)

[LadyOfTheImprovisedBath]

New Thread. - Hello.

Hi all, as usual a bit of reading to catch up on but wanted to flag something @Nihiloxica said early this morning as it's really stuck with me:
"If this was a disease as dangerous as the bubonic plague, we wouldn't need to be confined by law."

It resonated because I am worried about Peter and the Wolf. It is not inconceivable to imagine a world where something much bigger and nastier gets unleashed but we then refuse to lockdown because we remember this time and studies go on to prove we overreacted so no one takes seriously a far greater threat. I guess your point is that, if it's serious enough, we won't need law, we'll do it anyway? I really hope you're right because otherwise that could be a truly terrifying consequence of what we've done here.

Anyway, am sure the conversation has moved on plenty over the past 3 hours but I've been brooding on this whilst out with the dog!

@Nihiloxica

I am very worried about what some of these measures mean for those who have sensory issues or ASD or both.

There are people claiming that we should wear masks without proof they work because there are no downsides.

It's as if faces have no function.

I lost my shit in the car yesterday with some tit in the radio ranting that not wearing a mask should be as antisocial as drink driving. Does anyone actually stop and think for a minute? Both of mine have sensory issues and asd. They will not cope with compulsory masks and will be in bits at being shamed into doing it. They won’t leave the house and it will have huge impacts on anxiety and mental health. It’s bad enough getting them out without this shit on top of it. Or is that the plan, silence them and keep them out of sight. What about people who lip read, don’t they matter anymore? And this was a supposed HCP. Has this country lost its ability to think?

Still at least my ranting stopped them hearing too much of it. Dh was rather bemused. “Violet, your shouting at the radio. Again”. I do a lot of that. It’s scary how our freedoms have been so easy to take away and how so many would like it to go further

@Spudlet

Morning ADs. Did some anti-dementoring in the wild today. I was in the woods on a run (and btw, new 10k pb!) and had to stop for a moment as a car was coming down the track, as did a couple out walking their dog. They didn’t look like they knew their way too well, so I asked if they were on holiday... yes, they said, perhaps looking ever so slightly apprehensive that they were about to get a lecture or a cats bum face made at them. How wonderful, I said! Isn’t it great?!

I’m not normally a particularly effusive person - I blame the endorphins. Big smiles all round, anyway.

I need some equation assistance too - obviously any run done in the pouring rain is twice as hardcore, so would that be:

(R + P) = D + 2(H)
R = run,
P = precipitation,
D = distance,
H = hardcoreness

?

I only got a B in GCSE maths and that was a loooong time ago...

Noooo, I do my best running in the rain. But I am a sweaty beast, so I find it very cooling....

I just dont understand why we need to know how many people are testing positive. Because the vast proportion of those will be a bit crook for a week or two and then back to work. But giving the test numbers out every day makes it sounds like another 800 people line up to die each day.

I just feel like its counter productive to announce it. Sure, keep a record for those areas who need to know like NHS and government but why does Karen down the co-op need to know.

twitter.com/Anshul__K/status/1280777586310877186

This is interesting looking at the death statistics. Significant drops

@SpnBaby1967

I just dont understand why we need to know how many people are testing positive. Because the vast proportion of those will be a bit crook for a week or two and then back to work. But giving the test numbers out every day makes it sounds like another 800 people line up to die each day.

I just feel like its counter productive to announce it. Sure, keep a record for those areas who need to know like NHS and government but why does Karen down the co-op need to know.

Because, unfortunately, we've got ourselves into a cycle of announcing both deaths and cases every day (as have many countries) and if we stop, people will scream about "facts being hidden" and "you want us all to die!".

Having an idea of what is going on in your local area is useful, as it would appear (from Leicester and possibly Victoria) that local awareness and action can drive results without big lockdowns. But daily announced UK numbers aren't very helpful at this stage, and any daily fluctuation causes PANIC.

I think it's time we moved towards France's approach - sadly daily outside hospital announced weekly & hospital figures (& cases) daily ... after all we did all this to protect the NHS so those are the numbers that matter. 30 people a day dying in hospitals with/of covid is not a strain on the system. Hospital figures are at least vaguely contemporaneous and more relevant than care home deaths from weeks ago.

Wales waiting to see who pops out of the box today, hoping education, but will probably be the medical officer, he seemed quite sane earlier on, wonder what on earth he will say with so few deaths and empty wards.

Spoke to my dad up in Callander, he laughed at the idea of mask wearing "Oh, it's not like that here, it's quite relaxed it will be fine" as if I was being OTT or something.

Oh well, I said if the co-op don't let him in next week they sell them by the till. Well they do here anyway. Or I will get Amazon to send him a scarf to put round himself.

@justasking111 And we opened the box, and out popped... Andrew Goodall! Presumably it's him because of the massive NHS debt write-off thing?

I think Kirsty is due on Friday.

(was not dementing at him but it is Scotland so just thought should warn him)

Wales health boards green, 20% acute hospital beds empty. more than half empty 12 being treated for covid. Test trace and protect in place. Video consultation to become more used. Flu planning vaccination expanded programme. A&E contact first for advice. Some cancer services affected by covid, less staff, less theatres, less critical care, less access to diagnostics. Less people sought help GP wise, increase in cancer endoscopy difficult risk of infection high so reduced service. cervical, breast, bowl services re-started,

Restarting NHS a complex process.

They are still obsessed with covid keeping Wales safe.

@TheOrchidKiller

Some years back I was watching Fargo (the TV version, not the film) & the main character who was a bit of an underdog had a poster in his basement of some fish, with one swimming in the opposite direction to the other fish. The poster said, "What if you're right and they're wrong?

That sentence has really stuck with me at times, and it really resonates now.
I'm not arrogant enough to think I am right about everything, or to think that absolutely every measure being taken to deal with the virus is wrong. But I do feel like the fish swimming in the opposite direction, and I feel astounded and over-whelmed by the way in which the other fish just keep following the crowd, unquestioningly.

This isn't the first time in my life I've felt like this. I like rules to a certain extent, & I am no rebel. When I've questioned the logic or rationale for doing things that don't make sense I've been given The Look, or the "It's like that because it just is, ok?" speech. Or bullied into silence.

(I would post a picture of the fish but I can't make it work, possibly as I'm new. And a technical dunce).

I think quite a few of us are on the FWR boards (I have a different name for that) and so we recognise this feeling of old! Although that might be more de-raily than Brexit so I'll stop there

Lots of interesting discussion here atm, I don't think I feel intelligent enough to contribute anything useful this morning. God I am fucked off today. I'm actually trying really hard to think of something I am looking forward to and can't. Especially as my DC were meant to be doing lots of "firsts" this Summer and one particularly special one this very week. I feel so bad for them. Also I can't throw money at it (my preferred solution ) to have something to look forward to as DH's job is now shaky, and we were just getting back on our feet. Fucking typical.

Also (you'll all appreciate this no doubt) I wore my mask while shopping alone and on my two own feet (well kind of) which hardly happens these days, and had to take my mask off as it affected my breathing and I couldn't get enough air (fucked lungs. Technical term). And I'm stuck with public transport for the foreseeable despite being told to shield, as I can't get my licence back at the moment because Covid. Jesus Christ.

I really feel I should be saying something more intelligent about rules and anarchy. All I can think of is did we include "anarchy in the U.K." in our list of lockdown songs?

And and and and my local shop were selling packs of (shit) disposable masks - £5 for 5. Fuck OFF.

(

A and E to change radically, you will be triaged remotely, rather than turning up at the department, which having seen some of the patients is not such a bad idea. I once saw someone arrive in an ambulance be triaged ahead of a heart attack because well you know we queue here. Ambulance patient had a sprained finger but you know triage works (rolls eyes)

I did 90 mph at times getting OH to hospital once post op. complication, sprained finger took precedence. OH spent a further week in hospital. So I accept it is abused.

@Nihiloxica

I'm seeing a lot of suggestions that we are in a periods where changes like increased encroachment into new areas and climate changes plus more travel and soem industrail agricultural practices may mean we're in a period of lots of new viruses emerging.

Of course you are.

Because as it becomes more obvious that Covid is not actually that dangerous compared with viruses we have lived with for millennia, we need the pretext for continuing the New Normal.

I've seen similar articles about concerns when we had swine flu, H5N1, West African Ebola virus epidemic, periodically around antibotic resistance and farming, zika even when a book or film on contagous diseases come out.

I think it's more to do with media having attention span of a gnat.

There's 7 billion of us - 7 billion potential new hosts in an resource hungry speicies which has increasing persude travel and globalisation and on top we've added climate change meaning species are moving around more and increasing range of other pathogens.

Virus crossing speicies has always happened - travel has always happened, climate change has happened before and experts have had concerns about new virus for decades.

The coronavirus family has already fairly recently given us SARS and MERS.

A global pandemic at some point was entirely forseeable and has been predicted - you have to wonder why we've dealt this one so badly.

I agree it will take time and the people in power now to leave before we get to bottom of why we locked down and what other mistakes we made and why the fuck it's taken so long to change tack when it's become clear it's not as serious to most of the population as first feared.

Nippy's daily death count summarised:

28 in every 100,000 people with Covid. That's really really low. Aren't you doing well! Clever little people listening to Queen Nic. But other countries like Spain are full of nasty, germy people and have 300 people in every 100,000 with covid! That's TEN TIMES more than pristine, clean, Scotland. So don't be thinking you'll be going to Magaluf this summer because I say no. And we'll skelp your arse if you think you can get away with going to Manchester, because we'll find you."

300 out of ever 100,000 is 0.003% Or putting it another way, 99.997% of people in Spain DON'T have covid. But they're far too germy to be allowed to come here, and it's WAY too risky to go there.

For FUCKS sake.

Masks creeping closer. Guess we are not short of them now.

Care homes blah blah blah translated, we did not have testing capability then but now we have. We did not have PPE but now we have.

This annoys me. The actor Tom Hanks dementing at people to wear masks, but at the same time has type 2 diabetes which he attributes to eating lots of junk food, has had for years and years - surely there should be some responsibility to look after his own health also?

Why is he not dementoring at people to manage their diabetes? maybe because he has not done so himself.

www.diabetes.co.uk/celebrities/tom-hanks.html

"he was living on junk food and taking very little exercise"

A and E to change radically, you will be triaged remotely, rather than turning up at the department, which having seen some of the patients is not such a bad idea.

I don't know DS has a condition that needed fast treatment - very time dependent- we got him down immediately to A&E and then when the condition was mentioned they were priotised immediatley checked and skipped nearly all of A&E straight up ontoward prep for surgery.

I worry it would end up being another delay - waiting to get through remote triage adding more time onto entire process.

We had family upset with us we didn't use 111 or 999 but headed straight down - we knew it was serious and time dependent we didn't want to hang around waiting.

It’s strange because she is the one who wants to be a member of the EU yet closes Scotland off to the world at the first opportunity. More cognitive dissonance at work ....

Is Nippy depending on neighbours snitching on anyone with a suspicious tan? @SockYarn, because the police in Wales do not have enough feet on the ground to achieve this, which they have admitted.

Imagine a knock on the door, Mr. Plod asks if you have been to Spain, if so stay home for 14 days, tanned family nod, Plod leaves and they all go out to the shops to stock up on food etc.

@LadyOfTheImprovisedBath

A and E to change radically, you will be triaged remotely, rather than turning up at the department, which having seen some of the patients is not such a bad idea.

I don't know DS has a condition that needed fast treatment - very time dependent- we got him down immediately to A&E and then when the condition was mentioned they were priotised immediatley checked and skipped nearly all of A&E straight up ontoward prep for surgery.

I worry it would end up being another delay - waiting to get through remote triage adding more time onto entire process.

We had family upset with us we didn't use 111 or 999 but headed straight down - we knew it was serious and time dependent we didn't want to hang around waiting.

Yes this is a worry. I had mastitis when DD2 was 9 days old. Phoned 111 and they told me to use a compress and book an appointment with a GP for the following day. An hour later I felt significantly worse, went to the walk in centre who called an ambulance and blue lighted me to hospital. I had sepsis, and was told if I’d waited another hour before being seen and I probably wouldn’t have survived. Telephone triaging can only go so far.

Masks creeping closer. Guess we are not short of them now.

It’s a media campaign sadly. They are now jumping on the ‘airborne’ bandwagon. In relation to this I would question:

1. How a cloth mask is going to help. My leggings don’t help much if I fart.
2. Doesn’t this actually mean it’s more sensible to limit the number of people in a building per space and actually ventilate it to allow diffusion of the particles?

How a cloth mask is going to help. My leggings don’t help much if I fart