I've written to Rishi! Btw, got an automatic reply asking me to use this email address if I'm not a constituent: [email protected]
Dear Mr Sunak
I am writing to you as a frustrated member of British society who read with horror the figures announced this morning re the GDP falling by 20.4% in the month of April. I realise it is a figure for one month and is not annualised but the point is that the longer this continues, the less of a blip that figure becomes. I read an article in The Times on the 24th March where economist Philip Thomas at Bristol University predicted the tipping point between lives lost due to long term economic consequences versus lives lost due to Covid-19 was a reduction in GDP of 6.4%.
There was a subsequent article in the Telegraph on the 7th June by Sarah Knapton analysing further Professor Thomas' predictions. It is a truly worrying article. Obviously these are predictions, but currently this government are making decisions based on the flawed model of a man who grossly and incompetently miscalculated death rates for foot and mouth, BSE, bird flu and swine flu so forgive me for thinking we should perhaps view his predictions with a healthy degree of scepticism. The model we are currently using from Imperial was written for a flu pandemic not a coronavirus pandemic and yet still we are pursuing this strategy.
The ONS has today estimated that the community infection rate is 0.06% and yet we are still locked up? I sense that you are not fully behind the policies of all your fellow ministers and I urge you as our Chancellor to keep pushing for a reduction to social distancing of 1m and every and all efforts to get our economy restarted.
I don't expect a reply but I am hoping that your inbox is full of people like me, people who do care about the deaths in this country from Covid-19, but who also realise that the long term price has to be calculated too.