Feminism: Sex & gender discussions
UK transgender murder rate
pisacake · 07/11/2017 13:58
According to this source transrespect.org/en/map/trans-murder-monitoring/, 8 transgender people have been murdered in the UK since 2008
Their list (taken from various PDFs on their site):
2015
Vikki Thompson - not murder but accidental death, initially reported as suicide www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/may/19/jury-returns-verdict-on-transgender-woman-found-dead-in-male-prison
Vanessa Santillan - killed by husband because of sex work www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-34591733
2013
Jacqueline Cowdrey - found NOT to have been murdered www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-26145984
2012
Chrissie Azzopardi - killed over drug debts www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/oct/18/chrissie-azzopardi-murder-life-sentence
2011
Lionel/Suzie Morl - described as transvestite, murdered by two Big Issue sellers (male & female) to live off his disability benefits www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/guilty-couple-who-killed-transvestite-689598
2010
Sonia/David Burgess gender fluid lawyer killed by a gender fluid/trans client www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-16305570
2009
Andrea Waddell
www.getreading.co.uk/news/local-news/andrea-waddell-strangled-client-4226743 - sex worker killed by customer. Customer claimed not to know Waddell was transsexual. "During the trial, jurors were asked to consider whether McMillan killed her after discovering she was transgender, or because she was unable to perform sexually for him because of physical ailments after illnesses including fibromyalgia."
Destiny Lauren sex worker - killed by customer www.islingtongazette.co.uk/news/life-sentence-for-killer-of-transsexual-prostitute-destiny-lauren-1-680308 Customer had previously sought the services of transsexual prostitutes going by the names of "Fransexual" and "VickisDomain"
So in summary, not 8 murders but 6, of which:
3 were sex workers killed because of their sex work
2 were killed for financial reasons
1 was killed by another transgender person
"A total of 152 UK sex workers have been murdered since 1990. According to the charity National Ugly Mugs, 85% of street prostitutes have experienced violence and only 25% of victims are willing to report crimes to the police."
news.sky.com/story/sex-workers-still-vulnerable-10-years-after-ipswich-murders-10679614
There were around 571 homicides in the last year in England & Wales, that's approximately 1 per 100,000 people.
Thus over the 9 years 2008 to 2016, given six homicides, that implies a transgender murder rate of 0.67 per year, assuming transgender people are as likely to be killed as the rest of the country. That would suggest that there are only 67,000 transgender people in England & Wales.
However, the LOWEST estimate for transgender people is 0.1% (so around 57,000), and GIRES says it is 0.2% at the very minimum (so around 114,000).
Obviously given the tiny numbers you can't be too specific with these statistics, we aren't taking about a population (of murdered trans people) so much as vanishingly rare cases.
With regard to sex work, there are apparently around 72,800 sex workers in the UK of which 4% (approx 2900 are transgender). en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prostitution_in_the_United_Kingdom#Extent
Given the overall sex worker murder rate of ~6 per year, that implies 1 in every 12,000 sex workers will be murdered in any given year. Therefore given the 2900*9 = 26,100 transgender sex worker years in the period under study, we'd expect 26100/12000 = 2.175 murders of transgender sex workers. The total of 3 is very slightly above average in that respect, however statistically it's not even remotely significant (5 would be significant at the 95% confidence interval). I am not 100% clear if the case of Vanessa Santillan is included within the figures, as Santillan was murdered not by a client, but a jealous husband.
Also note that in general 1 in 780 people are sex workers (and sex workers have a homicide rate 8 times higher than the general population) but as many as 1 in 20 transgender people may be sex workers, so there will be a higher rate of murder.
Moreover, all of the murders were biologically male (and indeed most transgender people are male). The male murder rate is around 75% higher than the female murder rate in the country as a whole.
FizzyWaterAndElderflower · 07/11/2017 19:09
Also note that in general 1 in 780 people are sex workers
I get entirely what you're saying, but can I check - 1 in 780 people or women are sex workers?
Just because if you're comparing what they want to compare - like with like, then you need to compare female prostitutes, with TIM prostitutes.
likewise - is it just prostituted women who are 8* more likely to be murdered than the general population, or both men and women, and ditto general pop - men and women or just women.
I feel that if it was % of women prostituted, against the general population of women, the numbers would be worse (for women)
BatShite · 07/11/2017 19:19
I would take an educated guess that the rate of violence against transwomen by female people is a LOT less likely than the rate of violence against female people by transwomen.
Given transwomen are male, and all evidence we have available shows that transwomen retain a male pattern of violence. Infact, I would suggest that rates of violence against females by transwomen might even be higher than rates of violence against females by 'cis' males. Given the utter rage towards female people seen by TAs and their ilk.
But yes. The cries of murder rates of transwomen have always been pretty bollocks. And the blame for trans murders being on females, rather than on the males who do actually murder them...are quite telling. Though not surprising unfortunately.
VerticalBlinds · 07/11/2017 19:25
I think the main thing we can conclude is that selling sex is incredibly dangerous for anyone doing it - female, male, trans, not trans, and it would be great if this could be addressed.
However most people who like to call women who disagree with trans stuff terfs, are also very keen on calling women who draw attention to issues with selling sex "swerfs". Many TAs have come out saying sex work is super groovy and an awesome thing for underage MTF trans kids to do.
So, not holding out much hope.
Datun · 07/11/2017 19:26
BatShite
Certainly the threats of violence towards women are prolific from transwomen.
The level of intimidation is unprecedented.
Plbrookes · 07/11/2017 19:29
How refreshing to see a political assertion held up to statistical analysis! Can I just correct what I think is a slight misinterpretation in one of WhatWouldGenghisDo 's posts - the conventional 5% significance level does not relate to the probability of the null hypothesis being correct, it relates to the probability of seeing the data (or more extreme data) if the null hypothesis is true. So we can't say that the claim that transgender people face higher murder rates as being incorrect with probability 80% - just (as said elsewhere) that the observed data isn't beyond what you might reasonably expect if there was no difference in murder rates.
WhatWouldGenghisDo · 07/11/2017 20:13
If there's no actual group difference you're about 80% likely to obtain a difference up to the size of the observed one by chance imeantersay
WhatWouldGenghisDo · 07/11/2017 20:20
Of course this doesn't prove there isn't a group difference, it just means your results are likely to have occurred without there being one and that therefore there are no grounds for claiming one 
sagamartha · 07/11/2017 20:25
Hear that ? That is the unmistakable sound of a goalpost being moved
As I was saying to my MP when I discussed the gender recognition act with her recently, I was commenting that there are a lot of dubious statistics being used by all sides in this debate - given the low numbers involved and the difficulties of identifying how many trans people there are as well as the definitions of trans people have.
sagamartha · 07/11/2017 20:30
So perhaps point that out to all your trans friends when they try to emotionally blackmail and bully people with them
I have pointed it out to people online and got a whole load of online vitriol thrown at me for that as well - for pointing out they are using dubious statistics.
LassWiTheDelicateAir · 07/11/2017 20:32
Also note that in general 1 in 780 people are sex workers
I don't believe that.
LassWiTheDelicateAir · 07/11/2017 20:39
On the population of Scotland that figure would mean almost 6,500 people. Figures I found were around 3,000.
DistaffSide · 07/11/2017 20:45
Does this mean that, statistically a mtf trans person is more likely to be a murderer than murdered?
vesuvia · 07/11/2017 20:45
pisacake wrote - "13 murderers and only six victims over the same period. That is a statistically significant difference showing that people are more at risk of being murdered by transgender people than transgender people are of at risk of being murdered."
I've not seen data and analysis that convince me of the relative risks that you claim.
I think the fact that there are 13 transgender murderers versus 6 murdered transgender people is a shocking enough comparison, even without consideration of relative risks.
Based on the statistics that I have seen, I'd limit my conclusion to the following:
in the UK, between 2008 and 2016, the number of male transgender people who were convicted of murder is higher than the number of transgender people who were murdered.
DistaffSide · 07/11/2017 20:49
Thank you Vesuvia, apologies to pisacake for missing that you'd written that.
KennDodd · 07/11/2017 22:27
Thanks for this op. Sorry, more work for you! Any chance you can put all this into a blog essay on the internet to link to?
sagamartha · 07/11/2017 22:40
3 transwomen murdered in 4 years.
Given a population of 60,000 x 4 years = 240,000
That's 3 murders in 240,000 or 1 in 80,000 chance of murder.
General chance is 1 in 100,000. That seems higher.
And yes - I did just look at the last 4 years. The OP took the last 9 years which affected the data. She could have taken the last 20 years and maybe got another different outcome. The fact that there are low numbers involved and the deciding point about where you take the murders from, you can make the statistics show what you want.
That applies to any side with any particular perspective using such data.
sagamartha · 07/11/2017 22:41
Or 4 murdered in 5 years.
4 in 300,000 (5 x 60,000)
Which is 1 in 75,000 chance cf 1 in 100,000
sagamartha · 07/11/2017 22:44
in the UK, between 2008 and 2016, the number of male transgender people who were convicted of murder is higher than the number of transgender people who were murdered
That is a clear statement.
I wonder if the dates were different, you could write the opposite statement?
pisacake · 07/11/2017 23:07
"3 transwomen murdered in 4 years.
Given a population of 60,000 x 4 years = 240,000
That's 3 murders in 240,000 or 1 in 80,000 chance of murder.
General chance is 1 in 100,000. That seems higher.
And yes - I did just look at the last 4 years. The OP took the last 9 years which affected the data. She could have taken the last 20 years and maybe got another different outcome. "
I think you need to understand statistics a bit more.
The longer the time period the better. So 9 years is more reliable than 4 years. 20 years would be better still. I used 9 years because that's the period that has been monitored by the Trans Hate people. We don't throw away data for no reason.
In any case 1 in 80,000 isn't statistically significantly different from 1 in 100,000 when the population is that size.
This is not going to work for you. 
sagamartha · 07/11/2017 23:14
I think you need to understand statistics a bit more
I understand statistics fine.
The longer the time period the better. So 9 years is more reliable than 4 years. 20 years would be better still. I used 9 years because that's the period that has been monitored by the Trans Hate people. We don't throw away data for no reason
All depends on the size of the group.
3 in 4 years
4 in 5 years
6 in 9 years.
... in 20 years.
Such small numbers to work with and easily affected by years and murders.
This is not going to work for you. wink
I'm not sure if a wink is appropriate when discussing murder.
(and in case you missed it - I AGREE with you that trans activists can't say that trans people are at greater risk of being murdered).
I'm just saying that anyone can pick a time scale and produce their statistics from that.
sagamartha · 07/11/2017 23:16
In any case 1 in 80,000 isn't statistically significantly different from 1 in 100,000 when the population is that size
Totally agree. I was just showing how easy it is to affect the apparent murder rate when you have such low numbers.
pisacake · 07/11/2017 23:19
You can affect the apparent murder rate by ignoring part of the sample for no good reason if you want, it still doesn't make it statistically significant.
ferntwist · 08/11/2017 00:28
Thanks so much for all this research and the resources OP. This is very useful.
ferntwist · 08/11/2017 00:29
Debunks the arguments about letting men into women's spaces entirely.
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