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Brexit: How’s it all going to play out?!....

(96 Posts)
Oakenbeach Sat 08-Jun-19 22:56:59

.... I have my own theory

Boris becomes PM. He spends the next couple of months in fruitless attempts and new “initiatives to get concessions from the EU. The EU won’t budge. The Tories, like the Germans in WWII won’t admit, even to themselves, that the day of reckoning is fast approaching.... until eventually, in late September or early October, reality can’t be suspended any longer, and number of Tory MPs - probably in numbers that will surprise many - break ranks and indicate they will vote down their Government, judging that the now near certainty of no-deal outweighs the risk of the possibility of a Corbyn-led Government.... A GE is announced, leading to the EU extending its deadline. The Tory remnant - purged of its one-nation wing - form an uneasy electoral alliance with the Brexit Party.

Labour will continue to be mired in disagreement over a referendum.... if Corbyn didn’t buckle after the European elections, the boost of the Peterborough by-election result will have simply cemented his implacable opposition to it. The 600 who voters won it for Labour may have done far more than win them a seat....they may well have been critical in determining whether we have a Labour Government later this year, and may even have a lasting impact of the future of the party.

The LibDems, as a result of Labour’s equivocation and Tory’s pursuit of no-deal , does well in the polls in the months ahead. The disintegration of the Tories after the no-confidence vote boosts them further. Previously loyal Remainer, and even soft-Brexit, Tories switch their support to the LibDems as the best way to prevent their two fears - Corbyn and no-deal. An electoral deal is done with the Greens to further boost their position. Change UK still exists but polls alongside the Monster Raving Loonies, the vast majority of the small numbers who supported it at the EU elections moving to the LibDems

The election is bitter and acromonious.... Despite the no-deal crash our promised by the Brexit-Tory alliance, significant numbers support it, and they win the most votes at 37%. Second are the revitalised LibDems with 28% with Labour getting a poor 21% as internal feuding continues until election day, but polls well in inner-city areas with high BAME populations.

The Brexit/Tory alliance get 235 seats with much of England turning a bluey-turquoise - tactical voting hampering their seat count. Despite Labour only getting 21%, the concentration of their vote brings them 160 seats, with the LibDems a few less on 155 turning with most of London and the Home Counties yellow in the process. The Greens (on 5%) get 10 seats as they get some dividend from their tactical voting arrangement with the LibDems.

The Brexit-Tories try to form a Government.... They fail - their DUP allies leave them 90 short. Labour are the next ones to have a crack...the LD/Greens/PC/SNPs provide confidence and supply on the basis of a securing second referendum. Incredibly, Corbyn is PM having on secured just 21% of popular vote in 3rd place!

A bitter referendum is fought.... A combination of Brexit fatigue and the new starkness of the choice mean Remain win 56:44. Article50 is revoked.... the Government falls the next day and a new GE ensues...

Brexit is averted but the UK remains mired in deep, deep crisis.

OP’s posts: |
pisspants Sat 08-Jun-19 23:09:31

Interesting oaken....
I am a remainer and would love to see a less hardline person get in than BJ but can see that leavers believe TM deliberately recked negotiations with the EU as she was pro remain. I do think that we need someone who was a vocal leaver to fall on their own sword- so long as it does not result in no deal.
I can absolutely see how your prediction could end up playing out, one thing I am sure of is that politics will continue to be more interesting than most soap operas and that our country will likely remain divided for a very long time sad

bellinisurge Sun 09-Jun-19 11:10:20

As long as we avoid No Deal.

Peregrina Sun 09-Jun-19 14:51:59

What would happen if Labour got 150, LibDems 150, Tories 150, Brexit got 150, with the balance going to SNP, PC and some others - so NO party could form a Government on its own?
A Tory - Brexit alliance would probably be given first go at forming a Government, which would easily be voted down by the rest.

Littlespaces Sun 09-Jun-19 18:39:59

I feel exhausted just reading it.

Will there be any jobs left by the time it all ends? If it ever ends.

bigchris Sun 09-Jun-19 18:42:03

I think Boris will be pm and we'll leave with no deal on 30th october

RHTawneyonabus Sun 09-Jun-19 20:13:29

Fun! I’ll play!

Sajid Javid wins the leadership as a down the middle and pretty competent candidate that no one saw coming. It doesn’t matter as the Torys are a dead party walking.

They try to get a new session under way in September with some form of negotiated leave deal but the vote on the queens speech doesn’t pass and a GE is called.

They loose votes left to the Lib Dems and to the right to Brexit party. They come fourth. Brexit party have they most seats followed by labour and then a Lib Dem / green alliance

Lib Dem’s are Kingmakers again. What do they do?

Peregrina Sun 09-Jun-19 21:01:56

I sincerely hope that the LibDems don't bother with a cCoalition. Maybe they should talk to the DUP and ask them to teach them a few tricks?

Oakenbeach Sun 09-Jun-19 22:41:03

Lib Dem’s are Kingmakers again. What do they do?

Prop up a Labour Government in exchange for a new referendum. No coalition...They extract hard bargains for each bill they support. They learned the hard way in 2010.

OP’s posts: |
jasjas1973 Mon 10-Jun-19 06:17:35

The flaw in your plan is that Tory MPs will not vote down their own Govt....Turkeys don't vote for Christmas!

No Deal will spilt the Cons, lead to economic disaster and whenever the GE is, the Tories will lose heavily, so ND wont happen either.

We'd also be out of the EU, so who cares what the LD do?

I suspect, assuming the EU stick to no new negotiations and with a new commission, that's not certain at all, the new PM will be left with Revoke or PV.

Peregrina Mon 10-Jun-19 08:00:54

I don't know about Tories not voting down their own Govt - the ones threatened with deselection (because of what would by called entryism in their party if they were Labour) have nothing to lose.

It's hard to project forward - I suspect that when May was the last one standing to become PM most Tory MPs were reasonably satisfied with her because she was seen as a safe pair of hands. Not so with Boris Johnson.

lonelyplanetmum Mon 10-Jun-19 08:26:53

Take it this has been seen?

lonelyplanetmum Mon 10-Jun-19 08:27:38

Sorry wrong thread!

Yaralie Mon 10-Jun-19 11:28:37

The LibDems may well become the kingmakers, but before that our future could depend on a small number of "one Nation" Tories - Dominic Grieve, Ken Clarke, Sam Gyimah, Antoinette Sandbach, Phillip Lee and possibly even Jo Johnson, who would be prepared to bring down their own government to save us from a no-deal brexit or the threat to prorogue parliament. Let's hope that if it comes to that they hold their nerve and don't let us down.

spellingtest Mon 10-Jun-19 11:32:21

Perhaps the next PM will surprise us all and have a second referendum? Stranger things have happened.

Oakenbeach Mon 10-Jun-19 13:44:02

The flaw in your plan is that Tory MPs will not vote down their own Govt....Turkeys don't vote for Christmas!

Enough have said they would... There are a number at the end of their careers who won’t want this as a stain on their conscience (yes, some Tories do have this!). Besides, only 4 of them are needed... 5 or 6 if Kate Hoey support the Government (which I don’t think she would, despite her views on Brexit).....

Also, the Tory remainers would be turkeys if they don’t vote down the Government to stop no-deal. They would lose all credibility and be reviled. At least by supporting it they could help build something from the ashes of what will be the Tories.

OP’s posts: |
Oakenbeach Mon 10-Jun-19 13:52:55

Let's hope that if it comes to that they hold their nerve and don't let us down.

I genuinely think they would.... and in numbers that will surprise us. Off the top of my head you can add Philip Hammond, Oliver Letwin and Nicholas Soames to that list.... all men at the end of their careers who have shown balls in defying the Government. But in the final analysis, I expect 20+ to do so.

OP’s posts: |
jasjas1973 Mon 10-Jun-19 16:05:14

I don't share your optimism.

The Tories time and time again have shown themselves to be utterly self interested... Hammond as Chancellor could have steered May away from her red lines (or resigned over her choice) but didn't... these people would rather have another 2 years in power than vote down their own Govt.
They'll make the right noises and some might even resign from cabinet or the whip but won't force a GE, that'll see the tories destroyed as a political force.

I hope i'm wrong.

ragged Sun 16-Jun-19 09:24:43

Hammond was one of the 278 who voted to keep No Deal an option. So did Gove. Showed true lack of shrewdness.

From EU perspective, UK Crashing out of the Union is like this threat:
"If I stab myself I will bleed on your carpet!"

Ridiculous negotiating strategy.

Stanley Johnson on radio now saying "EU desperately NEED a deal." If 'desperate' is a key leverage point, who is most desperate in this situation? Does being the most 'desperate' make you the stronger or weaker negotiating partner? Hmm.

Peregrina Sun 16-Jun-19 09:49:57

Parts of the EU e.g. Ireland do need a deal, and the Ports areas in France, Belgium and NL will find it mighty inconvenient not to have deal. But desperate? No, I don't think so, and they have all been making contingency plans. Whereas the UK Govt and Opposition are fiddling while Rome burns.

TheABC Sun 16-Jun-19 10:02:55

TBH, the Tories are dead, whatever happens. If they don't exit the EU, their hard-right support disappears to the Brexit party. If the do crash out (because the numbers are not there for the WA bill), they wreck their reputation for economic competence. Think of the Lib Dems and tuition fees - this will be much, much worse.

The next PM has to prove they have the confidence of the House. If the Queen's Speech is voted down, there could be a GE announced before the summer recess.

ragged Sun 16-Jun-19 10:08:19

60% of Conservative party members intended to vote BxP in local elections (says online). They can't even keep their own party members on side.

1tisILeClerc Sun 16-Jun-19 10:23:02

{"EU desperately NEED a deal."}
No, the EU desperately need the UK to make it's sodding mind up.
Yes there will be upheaval with many suppliers from Europe and turning away from the UK as customers (if they haven't already done this) will take work, but it will happen.
The port areas will 'reconfigure' as much as anything. It is difficult to imagine that the UK will stop all trade with the EU (and goods that are distributed via Rotterdam for example) so it will mean more jobs for security/customs/shipping handlers rather than the streamlined operation that is currently in use. Thus more truck parking space, personnel and hassle.

LifeContinues Wed 03-Jul-19 06:05:51

As long as we avoid No Deal

Thought T May, the pro remainer, said that No Deal was better than a bad deal?

Conservative party have seen May's failure to deliver Brexit by 29 March 2019 result in them dropping to 4th place in the EU elections as Conservative MP's migrate to the Brexit Party.

If UK is not out of EU by 31 October 2019 then Conservatives will have demonstrated for the third time they do not honor their word. So who will vote for them? Nobody.

Are these well paid Conservative MP's going make themselves unemployed by not delivering Brexit, deal or no deal, by 31 October 2019. Can't see it happening. After all who would voluntarily resign from a well paid Job if they did not have to?

When the ship starts to sink the rats will run to save themselves first and not step aside for the benefit of others.

StealthPolarBear Wed 03-Jul-19 06:13:22

I don't see much optimism in the op at all.
All I can say I've learned from this whole Brexit mess is that no one knows what woll happen next and it can always be so much worse than we feared. Oh and statements presented as fact ("they've legislated against no deal so it can't happen" "the clock starts ticking once we invoke article 50 and we HAVE to leave after x months") are shown to be wrong.

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