Brexit: How’s it all going to play out?!....

[Oakenbeach]

.... I have my own theory

Boris becomes PM. He spends the next couple of months in fruitless attempts and new “initiatives to get concessions from the EU. The EU won’t budge. The Tories, like the Germans in WWII won’t admit, even to themselves, that the day of reckoning is fast approaching.... until eventually, in late September or early October, reality can’t be suspended any longer, and number of Tory MPs - probably in numbers that will surprise many - break ranks and indicate they will vote down their Government, judging that the now near certainty of no-deal outweighs the risk of the possibility of a Corbyn-led Government.... A GE is announced, leading to the EU extending its deadline. The Tory remnant - purged of its one-nation wing - form an uneasy electoral alliance with the Brexit Party.

Labour will continue to be mired in disagreement over a referendum.... if Corbyn didn’t buckle after the European elections, the boost of the Peterborough by-election result will have simply cemented his implacable opposition to it. The 600 who voters won it for Labour may have done far more than win them a seat....they may well have been critical in determining whether we have a Labour Government later this year, and may even have a lasting impact of the future of the party.

The LibDems, as a result of Labour’s equivocation and Tory’s pursuit of no-deal , does well in the polls in the months ahead. The disintegration of the Tories after the no-confidence vote boosts them further. Previously loyal Remainer, and even soft-Brexit, Tories switch their support to the LibDems as the best way to prevent their two fears - Corbyn and no-deal. An electoral deal is done with the Greens to further boost their position. Change UK still exists but polls alongside the Monster Raving Loonies, the vast majority of the small numbers who supported it at the EU elections moving to the LibDems

The election is bitter and acromonious.... Despite the no-deal crash our promised by the Brexit-Tory alliance, significant numbers support it, and they win the most votes at 37%. Second are the revitalised LibDems with 28% with Labour getting a poor 21% as internal feuding continues until election day, but polls well in inner-city areas with high BAME populations.

The Brexit/Tory alliance get 235 seats with much of England turning a bluey-turquoise - tactical voting hampering their seat count. Despite Labour only getting 21%, the concentration of their vote brings them 160 seats, with the LibDems a few less on 155 turning with most of London and the Home Counties yellow in the process. The Greens (on 5%) get 10 seats as they get some dividend from their tactical voting arrangement with the LibDems.

The Brexit-Tories try to form a Government.... They fail - their DUP allies leave them 90 short. Labour are the next ones to have a crack...the LD/Greens/PC/SNPs provide confidence and supply on the basis of a securing second referendum. Incredibly, Corbyn is PM having on secured just 21% of popular vote in 3rd place!

A bitter referendum is fought.... A combination of Brexit fatigue and the new starkness of the choice mean Remain win 56:44. Article50 is revoked.... the Government falls the next day and a new GE ensues...

Brexit is averted but the UK remains mired in deep, deep crisis.

{If UK is not out of EU by 31 October 2019 then Conservatives will have demonstrated for the third time they do not honor their word. So who will vote for them? Nobody.}

Leavers are making the fatal assumption that leaving the EU will be quick. It was always going to take well over 5 years to actually disentangle the UK from the EU even when UK negotiators have a clear mandate from the UK citizens as to how much EU legislation they are prepared to drop.
Passing the WA is the START of negotiations but after 3 years the UK has failed to address this. The WA (or one that would have been very similar in that it achieves the same goals) SHOULD have been written and agreed either before the A50 was triggered or within say 1 year maximum. Instead we had David Davies then Raab wandering over to Brussels with blank sheets of paper for best part of 2 years.
Even if the UK had a plan NOW, which it doesn't because we don't even know who the next PM will be, then it will still take a good 5 years or probably more to actually leave.
Even a 'crash out' no deal will actually take a good couple of years.

The EU have prepared for this with their 'emergency' plan which allows the EU to run flights, ships and truck drivers so that the UK does not need to starve. However this plan only runs for 9 - 12 months and favours ONLY the EU, and any of these 'olive branches' that it offers can be withdrawn immediately it stops being a benefit to the EU.

I just want this all over with. I just want yo know how bad it will be.

To LeClerc

Of course there will be a transition period, deal or no deal. Point is that is that if leave is not triggered by 31 Oct 2019 Conservatives have had it.

The WA (or one that would have been very similar in that it achieves the same goals) SHOULD have been written and agreed either before the A50 was triggered

Correct, but did not happen.

BoJo will alter the WA by about three words, sell it as a completely new deal, it will get voted through.

{The WA (or one that would have been very similar in that it achieves the same goals) SHOULD have been written and agreed either before the A50 was triggered

Correct, but did not happen.}
And we were subjected to the ridiculous charade of Chequers and the previous version. So who exactly was responsible for that. Bear in mind it was not the EU, and I have doubts about it being very much of May's doing, as I feel she has actually been relatively 'on the ball' but incapable of telling the ERG to 'STFU'.

And at that time the HoC were very definitely in 'dreamland' and had no clue how big a hole the UK was falling into.

May signing the WA before passing it through parliament and trying to keep the legal interpretation of the WA from being public knowledge was not a good idea. Particularly when it came to light that the Backstop issue had the potential to tie the UK to the EU forever.

BoJo will alter the WA by about three words, sell it as a completely new deal, it will get voted through

^this

I just want this all over with. I just want yo know how bad it will be.

If you want it to be over with (as do I), then ‘no deal’ won’t deliver that - quite the opposite.... It will simply be the start of an intractable process of disentangling ourselves from the EU that will continue to fixate our politicians for the next decade.

There seems to be this mass delusion that come 31 October that we’ll have this “clean” no-deal break and that Brexit will soon become a memory as we go our separate ways.

Revoking is the best way to leave Brexit behind.... But we need a democratic mandate for that. I’d prefer that to be through a GE if possible where 50% voted for parties with a clear policy to remain... but would grudgingly accept a referendum if that wasn’t possible (but would never want a referendum ever again!)

BoJo will alter the WA by about three words, sell it as a completely new deal, it will get voted through

I don’t think this is possible.... Whereas he may get enough Labour MPs now to cancel out any Brexit Spartans on his own side, if he doesn’t change the backstop (which is unlikely), the DUP would probably collapse the Government before it could be enacted.

By “change” I mean “remove” the backstop

Completely agree. A no deal seems like the end but will just be the start of the chaos.
31oct is my 40th birthday. 40 years of EU goodness

come 31 October that we’ll have this “clean” no-deal break and that Brexit will soon become a memory as we go our separate ways

Deal or No deal will require a transition period. Won't be like closing a door for the last time.

if possible where 50% voted for parties with a clear policy to remain

but would grudgingly accept a referendum if that wasn’t possible

In 2016 referendum 408 constituencies voted leave. Can't see that being reduced in favour of remain. Recent success of Brexit Party suggests that Brexit is what people want.

Further referendums will not help as you will end up with the same arguments as at present.

In 2016 referendum 408 constituencies voted leave. Can't see that being reduced in favour of remain. Recent success of Brexit Party suggests that Brexit is what people want.

Perhaps - I accept my wish is unlikely, but voting for ‘no deal’ is different to voting for a vague plan to leave...

As for the success of the Brexit Party, they got 31% at the European elections... hardly a majority. Parties with a clear policy to remain received 40%.

Moreover, they did far better at the EU elections in Peterborough than they did in the by-election. I’m sure that if we do have an election, there will be a lot of tactical voting by Remainers that will coalesce to undermine the BP or Tories.

StealthPolarBear
Can I wish you a Happy Birthday now, just in case Trump gets us all 'nuked' before we get to October.
Hunt 'sabre rattling' at the Chinese isn't too good either.

{Recent success of Brexit Party suggests that Brexit is what people want.}

I am not so sure this is quite true.
With all the disinformation and continued lying by Hunt, Bojo, Farage and others, all of whom are peddling a 'Leave' that will not translate into what they want or expect, there will be a huge dissatisfaction when the unicorns fail to appear. Even the 5 years or so that sorting any of this mess out will take will be an eternity for those who expect instant gratification.

Parties with a clear policy to remain received 40%

Cumulative yes. Singularly no. Based on recent polls (not always reliable admittedly); Labour, LibDems, Greens, Plaid and Change UK would have to form a 5 party coalition to prevent a coalition of BP and Conservative taking power. Also remember that General Election is based on seats as opposed to percentages. Leave was 52%, but 66% of constituencies.

To save skin and avoid unemployment the conservatives know they have to deliver Brexit, deal or no deal.

Even the 5 years or so that sorting any of this mess out will take will be an eternity for those who expect instant gratification

Depends on what people value most. If it is pure financial gain then instants results will not happen. If it the feeling of freedom and being able to choose your own laws then that happens on the day UK leaves the EU.

17.4 million voted to leave. They can’t all be millionaires who will be cushioned in the event of reduced living standards.

Nor can they all be on benefits who have nothing more to lose as UK does not have 17 million people claiming benefits.

Nor can they all be wealthy pensioners as UK does not have 17 million pensioners.

Nor can they all be from Northern England as there are not 408 constituencies in Northern England.

Nor can they be all thickheads as some of the most prominent leave voters were educated to the highest level in Eton and Oxford.

So the leave vote can’t have been based solely on being either an uneducated benefit scrounger from Northern England or a multi millionaire.

@lifecontinues if we leave with no deal, there is NO transition period. That's one of the many reasons it's a dumbass thing to even suggest.

No obligation on EU to agree a transition period in the event of a no deal exit, but I don’t see any benefit to either UK or EU without some form of close out

I think Boris will be PM, there will be no second referendum and we will leave on 31st Oct. I flip between thinking there will be no deal or Boris will fudge something to get the WA through with more Labour support than previous votes. Anything could happen though

{No obligation on EU to agree a transition period in the event of a no deal exit, but I don’t see any benefit to either UK or EU without some form of close out}

The EU have already made a plan for this in that they will allow most planes, ships and transport to run under THEIR terms and that over a 12 month period they will withdraw. This may well include companies like BMW, the PSA group and Rolls Royce packing up and leaving the UK. The UK would have relatively little say in what goes and when.

Brexit is gonna need a lot more than 5 more yrs to sort out.

I can't believe this
"Depends on what people value most. If it is pure financial gain then instants results will not happen. If it the feeling of freedom and being able to choose your own laws then that happens on the day UK leaves the EU."
The day we leave with no deal is the day we cease giving any say in our international affairs. The EU will have full control of our European trade, we will be a desperate minor partner in trade deals with China, the US and Russia - wait and see what happens when the US takes a dislike to our internal policies! Brexit is a loss of control!