Brexit: How’s it all going to play out?!....

[Oakenbeach]

.... I have my own theory

Boris becomes PM. He spends the next couple of months in fruitless attempts and new “initiatives to get concessions from the EU. The EU won’t budge. The Tories, like the Germans in WWII won’t admit, even to themselves, that the day of reckoning is fast approaching.... until eventually, in late September or early October, reality can’t be suspended any longer, and number of Tory MPs - probably in numbers that will surprise many - break ranks and indicate they will vote down their Government, judging that the now near certainty of no-deal outweighs the risk of the possibility of a Corbyn-led Government.... A GE is announced, leading to the EU extending its deadline. The Tory remnant - purged of its one-nation wing - form an uneasy electoral alliance with the Brexit Party.

Labour will continue to be mired in disagreement over a referendum.... if Corbyn didn’t buckle after the European elections, the boost of the Peterborough by-election result will have simply cemented his implacable opposition to it. The 600 who voters won it for Labour may have done far more than win them a seat....they may well have been critical in determining whether we have a Labour Government later this year, and may even have a lasting impact of the future of the party.

The LibDems, as a result of Labour’s equivocation and Tory’s pursuit of no-deal , does well in the polls in the months ahead. The disintegration of the Tories after the no-confidence vote boosts them further. Previously loyal Remainer, and even soft-Brexit, Tories switch their support to the LibDems as the best way to prevent their two fears - Corbyn and no-deal. An electoral deal is done with the Greens to further boost their position. Change UK still exists but polls alongside the Monster Raving Loonies, the vast majority of the small numbers who supported it at the EU elections moving to the LibDems

The election is bitter and acromonious.... Despite the no-deal crash our promised by the Brexit-Tory alliance, significant numbers support it, and they win the most votes at 37%. Second are the revitalised LibDems with 28% with Labour getting a poor 21% as internal feuding continues until election day, but polls well in inner-city areas with high BAME populations.

The Brexit/Tory alliance get 235 seats with much of England turning a bluey-turquoise - tactical voting hampering their seat count. Despite Labour only getting 21%, the concentration of their vote brings them 160 seats, with the LibDems a few less on 155 turning with most of London and the Home Counties yellow in the process. The Greens (on 5%) get 10 seats as they get some dividend from their tactical voting arrangement with the LibDems.

The Brexit-Tories try to form a Government.... They fail - their DUP allies leave them 90 short. Labour are the next ones to have a crack...the LD/Greens/PC/SNPs provide confidence and supply on the basis of a securing second referendum. Incredibly, Corbyn is PM having on secured just 21% of popular vote in 3rd place!

A bitter referendum is fought.... A combination of Brexit fatigue and the new starkness of the choice mean Remain win 56:44. Article50 is revoked.... the Government falls the next day and a new GE ensues...

Brexit is averted but the UK remains mired in deep, deep crisis.

SciFiRules
Yep!

I can't believe this

17.4 Million voted to leave. There must have been a reason.

Are they all Daily Mail readers? Think not as Daily Mail has a circulation of 1.2 Million.

Are they all millionaires who will not be affected of there is a downturn in living standards. I think not.

Do they all have Jobs for life. I think not.

Are they all 65+ pensioners. Not possible as 65+ are about 13 Million in the UK

Are they all on benefits? No as there about 5 million claiming benefits in the UK.

Are they all from Northern England? No as there are not 408 constituencies in that region of UK

Some the decision to vote leave can't have been made on the basis that all leave voters are either super rich or benefit scroungers from the North of England. There were obviously factors other than financial gain that prompted them to vote leave.

Again @LifeContinues - why does this have to be Next Deal. Are you absolutely sure that everyone who voted Leave is happy to Leave via No Deal with all the negative consequences that will have for a very long time before it gets better. What is the basis for your confidence that this is the case?
And the result of the referendum isn't enough to base that on given that a) the 2017 referendum didn't return enough MPs to support the government and b) the largest number of MEPs voted in the last EU election were anti-Brexit.

Ha No Deal not Next Deal

Are you absolutely sure that everyone who voted Leave is happy to Leave via No Deal with all the negative consequences that will have for a very long time before it gets better

The reasons why each of the 17.4 Million voted leave will never be known to MN posters unless they post on MN or some other forum. Even if they did who is going to read 17.4 Million posts?

Assuming you could read a post in 10 seconds for 8 hours per day it would take over 16 years to read all 17.4 Million posts. Have you got 16 years to spare? No thought not.

Seat won in 23 May 2019 EU election were

Brexit Party 29
Lib Dems 16
Labour 10
Green 7
Conservative 4
SNP 3

Lib Dems, Greens and SNP have made it clear that in addition to their regular policies they do not want Brexit which is 26 seats.

Brexit Party which is leave only at the moment is 29 seats.

Are Conservatives and Labour leave or remain parties is not so clear. 5 Million who voted Leave in 2016 referendum also voted labour in the 2017 GE. So how can you be sure those who voted Labour MEPs are remain or leave supporters?

Likewise how do you know that those who voted; LibDems, Greens and SNP did so solely on their Brexit position as opposed to their other policies they have advocated long before Brexit was even a subject? If all they were interested in was Pro-remain why not vote for Change UK Party which at moment is nothing other than remain?

So I am not sure how you conclude that largest number of MEPs voted in last EU election were pro remain.

Remember that in General Elections it is seats that count and the vote is decided by the electorate of up to 45 million as opposed to a handful of MPs or MEPs.

This is where traditionally the smaller parties such as LibDems and Greens come unstuck. The seats they win are nowhere near the % of votes. Take the 2017 election. Lib Dems got 7.4% of the vote which on a Pro-rata basis is 48 seats, but they got 12 seats in actuality. Likewise Greens have 7 seats in EU Parliament, but only one in UK Parliament. Anna Soubry's Change UK party which is Pro Remain and nothing else at the moment received zero seats.

The 52% that voted leave in 2016 referendum equated to 408 constituencies which is about 66% of all seats.

Get the point being made?

LifeContinues - you miss out the NI representation in the EU Parliament - one Alliance who is loosely allied to the LibDems, one Sinn Fein, and one DUP.

As far as the GB representation goes with respect to Labour and Conservative - some have declared where they stand - so we know Hannan is for Leave and some Labour have declared for Remain- Seb Dance is one name I can call to mind.

In total pro Leave and pro Remain were more or less equal, with a slightly greater percentage of votes cast going to Remain candidates.
Which pretty much reflects how it was in the Referendum.

To a question Why aren't Remain doing better? A Similar question can be posed - Leave won, why aren't they now wiping the floor with their votes?

You also missed out Plaid Cymru , adding another to the Remain party tally.

So the tally now is:
Brexit Party 29

LibDems 16
Greens 7
SNP 3
PC 1
SF 1
Alliance 1
i.e. 29 in total,

But we can add DUP onto the Leave side, and as for Lab/Cons we would have to look at what each one said to get the full picture.

To Peregrina

Does not answer the questions;

How do you know that those who voted LibDems, Greens and SNP, who have all been around long before Brexit was a subject, voted solely on their position on Brexit as opposed to their other policies?

If only interested in Brexit position why did they not vote for Change UK?

I seem to remember you asking why people did not vote for UKIP in 2017 GE if Brexit was top priority?

LifeContinues

What are YOU going to do to ensure that freedom of movement and citizens rights for the EU living in the UK and UK living in the EU are upheld?
You seem to think it is acceptable that your 'wishes' override the NEEDS of so many in the UK/EU.

You seem to think it is acceptable that your 'wishes' override the NEEDS of so many in the UK/EU

More accurate to say that the wishes of the Majority should override the wishes of the Minority. No policy will ever exit that pleases everyone.

Thought that those EU citizens who had taken up residence in the UK before Brexit takes place and vice versa for the UK in the EU? Seem to remember even Farage saying that when he was UKIP?

I would apply the principle of new legislation should not be applied retrospectively in answer your question. Would not be fair to boot families out who have taken up residence prior to Brexit in EU or UK

{More accurate to say that the wishes of the Majority should override the wishes of the Minority. }

Where did it say on the referendum paper that citizens rights will be curtailed?
Correct, it wasn't on the paper but it IS happening. Just an example of the shitty attitude of so many 'leavers' that they don't care about anyone else. All this wheedling and whining about 'democracy' while happy to deprive others.

How do you know that those who voted LibDems, Greens and SNP, who have all been around long before Brexit was a subject, voted solely on their position on Brexit as opposed to their other policies?

No one knows 100% but activists in political parties can gain a measure of what those who say they will vote for them think by canvass returns, correspondence with councillors, MPs etc.

ChangeUK was a bit of an unknown. I know one whose vote was cast for them, but for many it could have been holding your nose to vote for XX, because they have the best chance of winning, instead of your real choice because you don't want YY in at any cost.

You on the other hand on another thread have just offered an opinion that the % of Tory and Labour support has waned because they did not honour the referendum result. That may be true for the Tory party, and if you are an activist for them you will have some inside knowledge to confirm it. As for Labour - well who knows?

{No policy will ever exit that pleases everyone.}

What will become a problem in your jingoistic 'winner takes all' attitude is when the UK has left and many of the things that you dismiss as 'project fear' start to kick in. It may not happen all at once, it probably won't, but as friends and neighbours start losing their jobs, money getting considerably tighter, longer queues for doctors etc, there will be a groundswell of discontent and considerable resentment from the 48% that you are ignoring, and the two faced leavers that have been happy to wave the flag for leaving, but discover their unicorns went the other way.
So while the word democracy might have been upheld* the practicalities of being such an extremist will overtake any perceived 'gain'.

*Irregularities surrounding the original referendum are appearing from time to time. Eventually there might be an inquiry.

The Swiss, who have considerable experience of running Referendums, I believe had one where there was a narrow vote to curb immigration. Their Parliament considered it and over-ruled it on the the grounds that no, it couldn't be done without detriment to the country's well being.

Where did it say on the referendum paper that citizens rights will be curtailed?

Only thing on ballot paper was whether or not voters wanted to remain in the EU. No list of potential consequences of remain or leave were attached.

{Only thing on ballot paper was whether or not voters wanted to remain in the EU. No list of potential consequences of remain or leave were attached.}

And you voted for it without even questioning it?
Then you wonder why Remainers are more than a bit pissed off with your behaviour.

And you voted for it without even questioning it?
Then you wonder why Remainers are more than a bit pissed off with your behaviour

Didn’t vote as out of UK at the time as posted previously. Check back through posts if you wish.

{Didn’t vote as out of UK at the time as posted previously. Check back through posts if you wish}
So you are just being argumentative and unpleasant for the sake of it.
If you are a woman, you didn't even have the decency to vote when women have died to give you this right.

If you are a woman, you didn't even have the decency to vote when women have died to give you this right

I am not and was born 50 years after women were given the right to vote.

How do you know that those who voted LibDems, Greens and SNP, who have all been around long before Brexit was a subject, voted solely on their position on Brexit as opposed to their other policies?

I imagine Brexiteers voting for LD and Greens I’m the Euro elections would be vanishingly few, though possibly a few more with the SNP. Just because you have historically voted a particular
way doesn’t mean you’ll always do so, and there really aren’t many tribally LD or Greens out there in the way there are with the Tories and Labour.

To a question Why aren't Remain doing better? A Similar question can be posed - Leave won, why aren't they now wiping the floor with their votes?

The trend seems towards Remain... At the 2017 GE, a substantial majority voted for the “Leave” Labour and Tory parties, with most of those who voted Remain accepting that we needed to leave, including myself.

Over time those Remainers who believe we should leave has steadily reduced.... for me it was April this year when it was clear the Tories and Labour couldn’t make a Brexit deal work. Quite a number of Remainers still believe we should leave in the interests of honouring the referendum and bringing closure to the matter (on which they couldn’t be more wrong - there’ll be no such closure!).... but should they be given another choice, i expect a significant number of this remnant will return and join with those leavers who’ve had a change of heart (interesting recent poll from Wales showing this change - especially in the valleys!)

“Depends on what people value most. If it is pure financial gain then instants results will not happen. If it the feeling of freedom and being able to choose your own laws then that happens on the day UK leaves the EU.”

What an absolutely nonsense comment. Who will feel these things? I won’t be able to choose my own laws. laws will be chosen by people who care less and less about people like me. How exactly will I feel this freedom? Those in power who are gunning for brexit want to curtail the freedoms of people like me and in many ways it’s only the EU who has stopped them so far.

What an absolutely nonsense comment. Who will feel these things?

17.4 Million voted leave. Are they all;

Rich enough to be cushioned if there is a downturn? No

Have a certain job for life? No

All on benefits so won't be any worse off? No

So why did 17.4 Million vote to leave if there is a possibility of being worse off? Must have been reasons other than financial gain.

You missed one:

About to be disappointed? Yes.

No government can possibly hope to 'satisfy' all of the expectations of Leavers. The reality of having a few of the UK's laws PROPOSED by the EU partners, but ratified and enforced by UK citizens is getting a bit subtle compared to the massive hit the economy will take.

“So why did 17.4 Million vote to leave if there is a possibility of being worse off? ”

Because many were promised that they would better off