Brexit: How’s it all going to play out?!....

[Oakenbeach]

.... I have my own theory

Boris becomes PM. He spends the next couple of months in fruitless attempts and new “initiatives to get concessions from the EU. The EU won’t budge. The Tories, like the Germans in WWII won’t admit, even to themselves, that the day of reckoning is fast approaching.... until eventually, in late September or early October, reality can’t be suspended any longer, and number of Tory MPs - probably in numbers that will surprise many - break ranks and indicate they will vote down their Government, judging that the now near certainty of no-deal outweighs the risk of the possibility of a Corbyn-led Government.... A GE is announced, leading to the EU extending its deadline. The Tory remnant - purged of its one-nation wing - form an uneasy electoral alliance with the Brexit Party.

Labour will continue to be mired in disagreement over a referendum.... if Corbyn didn’t buckle after the European elections, the boost of the Peterborough by-election result will have simply cemented his implacable opposition to it. The 600 who voters won it for Labour may have done far more than win them a seat....they may well have been critical in determining whether we have a Labour Government later this year, and may even have a lasting impact of the future of the party.

The LibDems, as a result of Labour’s equivocation and Tory’s pursuit of no-deal , does well in the polls in the months ahead. The disintegration of the Tories after the no-confidence vote boosts them further. Previously loyal Remainer, and even soft-Brexit, Tories switch their support to the LibDems as the best way to prevent their two fears - Corbyn and no-deal. An electoral deal is done with the Greens to further boost their position. Change UK still exists but polls alongside the Monster Raving Loonies, the vast majority of the small numbers who supported it at the EU elections moving to the LibDems

The election is bitter and acromonious.... Despite the no-deal crash our promised by the Brexit-Tory alliance, significant numbers support it, and they win the most votes at 37%. Second are the revitalised LibDems with 28% with Labour getting a poor 21% as internal feuding continues until election day, but polls well in inner-city areas with high BAME populations.

The Brexit/Tory alliance get 235 seats with much of England turning a bluey-turquoise - tactical voting hampering their seat count. Despite Labour only getting 21%, the concentration of their vote brings them 160 seats, with the LibDems a few less on 155 turning with most of London and the Home Counties yellow in the process. The Greens (on 5%) get 10 seats as they get some dividend from their tactical voting arrangement with the LibDems.

The Brexit-Tories try to form a Government.... They fail - their DUP allies leave them 90 short. Labour are the next ones to have a crack...the LD/Greens/PC/SNPs provide confidence and supply on the basis of a securing second referendum. Incredibly, Corbyn is PM having on secured just 21% of popular vote in 3rd place!

A bitter referendum is fought.... A combination of Brexit fatigue and the new starkness of the choice mean Remain win 56:44. Article50 is revoked.... the Government falls the next day and a new GE ensues...

Brexit is averted but the UK remains mired in deep, deep crisis.

They were told they would be better off: no downturn in the economy, that was Project Fear. Easiest deals in history, they need us more than we need them. More money for the NHS - one of the things which the Government could have done any time after the Referendum.

Now Hunt is talking about special money for fishing and farming. What's that all about? It was all going to be oh so easy, this shouldn't be necessary.

Still enjoy Malaysia LifeContinues, as a white European man out there your life will be easier than 90% of the citizens who were born there and don't have your 1st world advantages.

If it the feeling of freedom and being able to choose your own laws

Why do posters ( often male for some reason? ) keep reciting this freedom myth?

Does the following U.K. laws give the feeling of freedom? The U.K. controls all of the NHS, education, property, administrative law, elderly social care, pensions, commercial law, constitutional law ,Construction law, policing, Contract law ,Corporation law ,Some Employment law ,Family law including marriage, divorce, adoption, finances,Film and entertainment law, Insolvency litigation, banking and debt recovery ,Law of succession, wills and estates, Law of torts , compensation for wrongful acts e.g. negligence, nuisance, defamation, trespass ,personal injury and medical negligence law ,Property law, Planning ,Sports law and Post Taxation income tax inheritance tax etc. We can control domestic violence guardianship ,emergency protection, divorce property, spousal maintenance, adoption, mental capacity, probate, elderly care, benefits,housing, crime, defence , fiscal policy, electoral policy etc.etc.
drug crimes, public nuisance , conspiracy, traffic and driving offences, theft, misconduct in public office, perjury, abuse of authority, subpoenas, jury stuff, misappropriation of funds, bribes, dereliction of duty, perverting the course of justice, fraud, murder, manslaughter, common assault, battery, robbery, rape, kidnapping ,abduction, arson, burglary, trespass, forgery, certain libel, espionage
contempt of court, escape from lawful custody, breach of prison, rescuing a prisoner in custody, riot, piracy
unlawful assembly, breach of the peace, public decency, running a disorderly house, housebreaking,Theft, threats with intent to extort money or property, arson.

In this context I struggle to understand why anyone logically thinks that giving up shared EU decision making powers over food safety, environment, and some employment regulation will magically create an elusive feeling of freedom.

It's the Principle though lonely

The only people who will feel freedom in a meaningful way (and it won’t happen the day we leave the EU either) are those would-be exploitative employers who will see freedom from being bound by employment laws that protect their workforce

We have already seen one poster, (I am not sure now on which thread) state that E Europeans immigration has made it more difficult for her to find work, because they are prepared to accept the lower wages on offer. Welcome to seeing more of this as employers enter a race to the bottom and import workers from elsewhere.

Peregrina
Indeed, I suggested that she relocates because she can't get the job she wants without moving. She signed off shortly after I think.
It seems particularly in the UK (?) that many EXPECT the government/faeries/someone else to provide enjoyable, good paying jobs on the doorstep of where they want to live, as if it is someone else's responsibility to make your life easy.
It has never been so, and never will be. Over the centuries people have always migrated to find other places to set up where it suited them better. Entrepreneurs from the UK, people forced from land by landowners, or a means to enjoy religious 'freedom' are all reasons to do this. It could be an argument that the 'welfare state' has led to unrealistic expectations?

About to be disappointed? Yes

Speculative.

About to be disappointed? Maybe

Would be more accurate.

It could be an argument that the 'welfare state' has led to unrealistic expectations?

I would say it is a big factor. I know several on my father's side of the family who are better off on benefits than working.

So far I have never been in that situation, but if working for minimum wage results in being no better, or worse, off I can see why people can't be bothered to get out of bed.

Many parents face similar situation. By time they have paid for childcare all their earning have gone so they stay at home instead.

{I would say it is a big factor. I know several on my father's side of the family who are better off on benefits than working. }

There are expressions for people like that, and they aren't complimentary.

By time they have paid for childcare all their earning have gone so they stay at home instead.

Back in the 1950s of course, this was expected.

Definitely seems like one of the more likely predicted scenarios.

Back in the 1950s of course, this was expected

Less jobs for women then too. Plus families much bigger then. 5 or more children was common. Mothering and running a house was full time job even if wives wanted to work and earn.

{Less jobs for women then too. }

You mean FEWER jobs for women to do. You could at least try and write in English.

The number of children people had depended very much on where you lived. Thinking back to my own childhood in the 1950s, most people had one, two or possibly three children. I can offhand only think of one family who had five.

Indeed, I suggested that she relocates because she can't get the job she wants without moving. She signed off shortly after I think.
I'm not surprised she signed off. I came onto this Brexit section for a look around and I see that the regulars are all remainers, which is not surprising. What is surprising is just how sneery and unpleasant you regulars are and how dismissive of people's experiences and concerns. I'm signing off too.

I have had to move location, often over 200 miles to do the job I want and it it is not unreasonable to do so.
As I said previously it is a matter of life choices what you do but it is unreasonable to expect employers to come to you.

I will sneer at No Dealers who try and conflate their madness with Leavers. Unless and until someone tells me they are the same thing I will save my contempt for No Dealers. I see no reason to be polite or understanding of that stupid shit. I supported WA despite voting Remain. Don't drag me into mad No Dealer crap and expect me to be polite.

Don't drag me into mad No Dealer crap and expect me to be polite

So what are you going to do if No Deal happens?

Because many were promised that they would better off

They were told they would be better off: no downturn in the economy

Can't be the only reason as Brexit Party recent success would never have happened.

There must have been reasons that people voted leave 3 years ago other than financial gain.

Yes, they were lied to and believed it, simple