US election - watching Washington State

[OhSister]

Wondering if anyone else is eagerly awaiting the voting returns from WA. It's a reliably Democratic (liberal) state with two sitting Democratic Senators and 10 House of Representative seats up for decision with today's voting. 8 of the 10 House of Rep seats have Democratic incumbents and while there are a couple of close races / possible Republican upsets, the likelihood is that the outcome will be that Washington reasserts itself as a mostly 'liberal' state in today's election.

What makes this relevant to this forum, is that there is also a ballot measure being voted on in WA, that participation in youth and school sports should be on the basis of sex, not gender identity. From polling, it looks like it has a very good chance of passing, with about half of Democratic voters supporting it, along with a majority of Republicans and Independents. This is despite the TRA scaremongering about 'genital exams' and such nonsense.

I can't think of a previous opportunity, at least in the US, for voters to simultaneously send a message that they are largely progressive and anti-MAGA, and that they're in favour of protecting girls' and women's sex-based rights against gender ideology. If both the Democrats and the ballot measure win, it will send a message to Dems that their own base is not as on-board with the gender dogma as they thought, and it may start to undermine the false assumption that sex realism = conservatism, and bring to light the fact that many who oppose genderism come to that position on the basis that it's a belief system that's sexist, homophobic and regressive.

Maybe I'm too hopeful. But I'm eagerly awaiting the outcome and wondered if anyone else is watching WA.

Will be interesting to watch. Link for the lazy: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Washington_Initiative_638

Not just Washington, but Nebraska, Arizona, Missouri and Colorado all have ballots on trans/ gender issues. Will be very interesting to see what the US public thinks.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/healthcare/4781176/five-states-youth-transgender-medicine-sports-on-ballot/

Place marking. Fully expect that even if the vote decides to keep sport single sex as a result of Democrats voting for it there will still be desperate cries of “far right!”

Good link thanks. Haven't finished reading it yet but noticed that Missouri has bundled the poll with what looks like restrictions on abortion rights. Happy to be corrected, but unfortunatley, as usual, women seem to be forced to choose between rights - if they choose one they lose out on the other...(reproductive and definition in this case).
Missouri
Missouri’s Amendment 3 would repeal the abortion rights amendment voters added to the state constitution in 2024, but it would also prohibit gender transition medical procedures for minors.

Watching with interest

I had been reading about the poll in Washington state. It will be a very interesting result for that state in particular.

It will be an interesting indicator of public opinion for that state.

Looks like it will pass: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/washington-ballot-measures

King County (i.e. Seattle) voting narrowly against; almost everywhere else in favour, often by big margins,

I hope that if it passes that it will send a message to the Democratic Party that they have ignored the significance of the issue of female single sex provisions for too long.

Transgender-related ballot measures are all going the way of women's & girls' rights so far: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/ballot-measures#transgender-rights

Abortion rights is more mixed, but Missouri's combined anti-abortion, anti-child-trans-surgery measure has failed which seems like mostly good news - it should hopefully discourage people from trying to hitch the two together in future.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/ballot-measures#abortion

Thanks OP. I have been following this. Washington is significant because they were the first state to allow boys who identify as girls to compete on girls teams, I believe, so it would be great to see it come full circle and be rejected by voters. The no campaign has been desperate and has been using all the scaremongering tactics we're familiar with, such as claiming students will be subject to genital examinations because no one can figure out who is male or female anymore, apparently. If voters in Colorado and Washington vote to pass these measures, hopefully it will pave the way in other blue states too.

Seeing voters pass this notion in a progressive, blue state will hopefully give the Democrats the kick up the arse they need. The Democrats are doing well in these elections not because they are popular, but because people have had enough of Trump and his policies. If they continue to die on this hill, they won't be able to win over moderate voters at the next election because they are out of step with the general public on this issue.

Of course. Its all they've got.

The trouble is, in the long run, this wolf-crying undermines the left and strengthens the right.

Good, although those percentages are far closer than they should be.

I suppose in the US left and right have different meanings than they do in yhe UK!

Great blog looking at the big picture.

Big Trans went all in on trying to stop a bunch of 32 Dem candidates who were pro-womens sports and questioned genderist ideas. They failed!!!

So far 22 of the pro-women Dem candidates have won seats including 5 senators and 14 House members and 3 Governors. This includes Senator Josh Turek who is mud on Blue Sky for saying women should have sports.

The firewall against Dems saying women are real is broken. Long term this is big. The possibility of reality gradually returning to Dems is happening.

On the other hand Repubs found out it is not enough to defeat Dem candidates that the Dems might believe genderist garbage if they are lumbered with Trump's crazy and the economy sucks. Not surprising.

In ballot initiatives mix of good and bad so far as others have mentioned.

Nebraska protects women's sports

Repubs in Missouri stupidly tried to use protecting children from gender medicine on one hand combined with a ban on abortion in same amendment. Voters were keen to keep abortion legal.

The really bad news though is Vermont where gender identity is added to state constitution. Heading towards Canada style horror in Vermont. Yet Genderists when they get power do massive overreach to attack any dissenters so it may help elsewhere in the US.

Called:
Missouri Amendment 3: FAILED. Repeal of the 2024 abortion amendment as well as a constitutional ban on gender-transition interventions for minors.

Vermont Proposal 4: PASSED. Would add sexual orientation, gender identity and gender expression to the state constitution’s guarantee of equal protection.

Virginia Question 2: PASSED. Protecting same-sex marriage.

Nebraska 442: PASSED. This initiative enshrines into the state’s constitution a rule impacting all public schools, including colleges, and the private schools that play them: that those born male cannot play on the girls or women’s teams.

https://benryan.substack.com/p/dozens-of-democratic-candidates-broke

Overall looking like a good night for women's rights. No debate is over.

In another positive, Josh Turek has been elected in Iowa for the Democrats. He has taken a strong position on male athletes in females sports (he's a former Paralympian) and also on taxpayer funder medical transition. He has got a lot of pushback from within his own party for his stance.

And Jonah Wheeler has been re-elected.

Placemarking

I noticed on a MN thread discussing the midterm results had one poster celebrating the Democratic wins by saying "trans rights are so back". It’s insane that GI was ever a political issue instead of being seen for what it is: a woman and girl’s rights and safeguarding issue.

And I’m glad that US voters have signalled disapproval of Trump, which would’ve been about astronomically high petrol prices as much as anything else, but also hope that the Democratic Party regain some common decency about women’s rights. We’ll see.

Edited to comment: Vermont added gender identity to state constitution. That’s my worry. Why can’t regular people see that GI is a MR movement in disguise?

PMK

Thank you OP and other posters, v interesting and informative, and will no doubt be overlooked [understandably, perhaps] in the wake of the Blue Wave.

Vermont has been a lost cause for years. And there have been periodic calls for VT to secede from the Union for decades. At this point, they could just secede and join Canada, and most of us wouldn't even notice!

(could make for some interesting border negotiations with some of the other states)

It's a shame, because I used to love VT's independent spirit. Now, they're just a social experiment gone mad.

Thanks for the updates, OP.

I’m in Maine which has been relaxed about boys competing in girls’ sports in high schools and where three inmates in our women’s prison are currently suing the state because they’ve been locked up with a 6’2” male rapist. Our new senator, Troy Jackson, who has defeated the Republican Susan Collins, is a working class guy and I hope might have a more common sense approach. No trans-related items were on the ballot this time though.

My best friend also lives there and regularly updates me on these things!

There’s still madness visible. For example 58.9% of Coloradans want trans surgeries on minors to continue.

Interesting. What we have wanted all along is to move back to ‘sex is real and matters’ being the mainstream position and not a mainstream political battleground. It feels like we are getting there in the UK. Let’s hope the US gets there soon.