TV and probability

[ihateprobability]

i have started to notice a pattern watching TV.

Basically I think there are way more female murderers than I would expect. Which I find unsettling - like the world is pretending women are worse than men.

according to the government data the probability of a woman committing murder and being convicted is 0.07.
0.93 is the probability of a man being convicted ( 93% of convictions were male )

now take Northumbria mysteries
a woman was the offender in the first 3 cases

the probability of that I think is 0.07 times 0.07 times 0.07

which is rather tiny

now the fourth episode had a male offender.
which thinking of 4 episodes - you could have FFFM, FMFF, FFMF,MFFF

and I have no idea how to estimate the probability of 3 out of the 4 . See user name.

but I expect it is still rather small

so should I be bothered by the pattern which I have seen in other programs too, and how do you actually calculate the probability in this case ( a web page or suitable search terms - not demanding you do it for me )

Well i always thought that in crime drama or thrillers the murderer was quite often revealed as the murderer because of the very fact that the more natural assumption, based on reality, was that it would be one of the male characters. That a woman being the murderer allows the plot to have more of an element of surprise and keeps the watcher , or reader, guessing.
I've never thought that generally there was a sinister motive behind this.

It’s not much of a surprise when everyone is doing it though

Could it be that because female murderers are less common that people find stories about them more interesting than stories about male murderers?

I've always thought the same OP especially programmes like Lewis or Midsummer Murders. Even Agatha Christie had her fair share. I suppose it's artistic licence and makes it less likely that the audience guesses who the killer is but it's totally ludicrous in terms of any relationship to reality.

I noticed this with crime fiction. There's a funny undercurrent in both LJ Ross and Joy Ellis's books where women are wrong uns fairly often and it doesn't seem quite right. I wish I had my examples handy but I'm afraid I don't. Though I enjoy both authors, I have noticed it.

And I hated that one on Disney about the female serial killer. Just awful despite the reviews!

It's not supposed to reflect reality - it's sometimes the surprise and unexpectedness of having a female killer (a lot of sweet old ladies in Agatha Christie turn out to be murderers.)

It's also catharsis - crime thrillers are disproportionately read and watched by women and feels good to enjoy a woman who is powerful and violent and kills those who cross her. Again, many of the Christie murderers turn out to be sympathetic and their crimes understandable.

On the other hand many people including feminists complain about the abundance of TV shows and novels depicting violence against women and gruesome sex-related killings. But this reflects depressing reality.

Also it's not vanishingly rare to have women killers - it's about 1/10. Women killing babies and children is fairly common and so are female accomplices of male murderers.

Way more female murderers and way more female murder victims than statistics would suggest.

TV ought to have a lot more men being killed by their (male) friends.

Apparently, women are particularly keen on murder mysteries. Perhaps this is a way of making them relevant to the audience?

Must admit I was a bit surprised when I realised nearly half the killers in the Cormoran Strike books are female, including one very prolific killer (trying to not give too much away!), as JKR obviously has a very good understanding of male violence. But maybe as said above, the unexpectedness of it is part of the reason...

I watched A Touch of Frost last night on ITV3 and thought one of the women characters (who turned out to be the murderer) looked distinctly odd.

No worries - it was a man in drag