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Feminism: Sex and gender discussions

Article on "arguing with a TERF"

1000 replies

MyAmpleSheep · 05/06/2026 13:18

I love to keep up with the other side, so here's a lot of words just to say "it's complicated." meanwhile he ignores the obvious answer to his own question.

www.fasttrackfemme.com/p/why-you-cant-win-an-argument-with

OP posts:
Thread gallery
21
Ereshkigalangcleg · 25/06/2026 09:08

It wouldn’t surprise me.

Seethlaw · 25/06/2026 09:11

MedicalConsensus · 25/06/2026 08:50

@Seethlaw
"So the risk assessment must be conducted on transwomen in general. It's not our decision: it's the law and ethics both."

I think there is a crucial distinction between how a scientific risk assessment is calculated and how a legal policy is implemented.

Even if a legal or ethical framework dictates that a government cannot discriminate based on medical status when applying a policy, that does not change the laws of physics, biology, or statistics.
A statistician calculating literal physical risk must separate the cohorts based on the variables that actually cause the risk (like testosterone levels).
If a researcher artificially lumps them together because of a legal policy, the resulting data is scientifically meaningless for determining the actual risk profile of the medically transitioned group.

If the law forces policymakers to lump everyone into one group, then the resulting policy is being built strictly on legal compliance and ethical categories, not on the actual, isolated physical risk of the transitioned cohort.
Which shows the essay's point:
The author was asking a statistical question about physical harm reduction.
By answering that we are legally forced to ignore the specific statistical variables in favor of a broad legal category, you are confirming that the boundary being drawn isn't actually about the actuarial risk data, but about a categorical rule.

By answering that we are legally forced to ignore the specific statistical variables in favor of a broad legal category, you are confirming that the boundary being drawn isn't actually about the actuarial risk data, but about a categorical rule.

And again: the categorical rule is directly based on the actual risk data. Transwomen (as the group they are) present at least as much danger to women as other men.

If you want to argue that a sub-sub-category of men (transwomen who have undergone unspecified medical interventions for an unspecified amount of time) are less of a danger to women, then by all means, feel free to do so. Be aware, however, that this cannot have any influence on the legal policy of keeping all transwomen out of women's spaces: Basically, it's an exercise in futility.

lcakethereforeIam · 25/06/2026 09:11

No consideration of the cost to women, any woman, of sharing a space with a strange man where she may be vulnerable. Just like the risk assessments the SPS did on deciding which men to put in women's prisons. If I were in a changing room and a man walked in I'd freak out. Even if it was someone I knew (a work colleague, a friend, one of my nephews).

Eta. I wouldn't spend anytime wondering whether or not he was 'safe'. If he was a stranger to me how could I possibly know?

Seethlaw · 25/06/2026 09:14

MedicalConsensus · 25/06/2026 09:02

@Seethlaw
"'If we're talking the cost to transwomen...' I don't see this cost being mentioned or explored at all in the blog post. How come?"

It is right there: "what is the actual risk... weighed against the actual cost of excluding them."
"Them" refers directly to trans women.
The author is explicitly asking the reader to calculate the real-world harm that exclusion inflicts upon that specific group (for example, the physical danger of forcing a medically transitioned, testosterone-suppressed individual into a men's facility).

"The logical cost here would be to women... And in that case, the answer is: zero."

By deciding that the only "logical cost" to measure is the cost to women, you are essentially stating that the harm to the excluded group doesn't belong on the ledger at all.
This is a perfectly valid, protective boundary to set for a space!
But it fundamentally changes the math. A true statistical cost-benefit analysis requires weighing the impact on all stakeholders.
By zeroing out the other side of the scale before the math begins, you show your stance is based on a categorical boundary, not a universal risk assessment. Which illustrates the essay's core observation.

It is right there: "what is the actual risk... weighed against the actual cost of excluding them."
"Them" refers directly to trans women.
The author is explicitly asking the reader to calculate

That's precisely what I was talking about: the author is not presenting those risks: He's asking the reader to do it. Bluntly put: why would we do that? It's not our problem, so why would we be the ones to put the work in? If the author wants to discuss that cost, then let him do the legwork.

A true statistical cost-benefit analysis requires weighing the impact on all stakeholders.

Then by all means, tell us what the cost is to transwomen.

Pingponghavoc · 25/06/2026 09:17

The author is saying that we need to balance the cost to men using mens spaces with the cost to women if they use women's spaces.

We do this already. We recognise that very small boys cannot use mens spaces alone, therefore their mother may take them into the female toilet or changing room.

Legislators assessed the risk of male people in male spaces and concluded that 4 year old boys sometimes needed the protection of the women's spaces.

Not short men, old men, gay men, disabled men, not men on medication, not men who've had surgery.

Its been thought out already, and the conclusion is small boys sometimes need to use the space, not men.

MedicalConsensus · 25/06/2026 09:21

BernardBlacksMolluscs · 25/06/2026 07:57

Is it possible for pomposity to become a debilitating medical condition?

I believe I did my best to discuss in good faith. Well, if I appear to be "excessively serious", then I get it, yeah, I guess I'm a bit of a nerd about this stuff

MedicalConsensus · 25/06/2026 09:23

BernardBlacksMolluscs · 25/06/2026 08:00

I think I’ll stick with ‘if you were born with a cock you’re a man and you do not belong in single sex spaces set aside for women’. Seems simpler and likely to save everyone a lot of time in the long run

True, that will save a lot of time

GriseldaandMike · 25/06/2026 09:29

MedicalConsensus · 25/06/2026 01:40

@BernardBlacksMolluscs
"didn't it used to be utility bills back in the day? ... does having been born with a cock count as a biological marker do we think?"

The 'utility bill' was part of the requirement to prove social transition. But as your comment implies, just a different name on a bill doesn't change a physical risk profile. That is exactly why I am arguing against using social identification or paperwork as a metric for safety.

And to answer your question directly: yes, absolutely. Natal anatomy is a primary biological marker.

But when calculating ongoing physical risk, like male-pattern strength, which is driven by testosterone, the biological markers that matter for the data are the endocrinological ones. Specifically, what happens to that physical baseline after years of testosterone suppression.

Well it doesn't become female strength because no degree of hormones undo larger lungs, greater blood volume, different q angles, bigger hearts, differences in muscle and bone, height difference, longer limbs (remember the thing we were all taught at school about give me a long enough lever and I shall move the earth? Well spoiler alert no amount of female hormones will shirk male arms.) Or any of the 100s of other differences that there are between male and female bodies. Men aren't stronger than women just because they have testosterone in their system, they are stronger than women because testosterone makes them develop differently.

OldCrone · 25/06/2026 09:36

MedicalConsensus · 25/06/2026 09:02

@Seethlaw
"'If we're talking the cost to transwomen...' I don't see this cost being mentioned or explored at all in the blog post. How come?"

It is right there: "what is the actual risk... weighed against the actual cost of excluding them."
"Them" refers directly to trans women.
The author is explicitly asking the reader to calculate the real-world harm that exclusion inflicts upon that specific group (for example, the physical danger of forcing a medically transitioned, testosterone-suppressed individual into a men's facility).

"The logical cost here would be to women... And in that case, the answer is: zero."

By deciding that the only "logical cost" to measure is the cost to women, you are essentially stating that the harm to the excluded group doesn't belong on the ledger at all.
This is a perfectly valid, protective boundary to set for a space!
But it fundamentally changes the math. A true statistical cost-benefit analysis requires weighing the impact on all stakeholders.
By zeroing out the other side of the scale before the math begins, you show your stance is based on a categorical boundary, not a universal risk assessment. Which illustrates the essay's core observation.

The author is explicitly asking the reader to calculate the real-world harm that exclusion inflicts upon that specific group (for example, the physical danger of forcing a medically transitioned, testosterone-suppressed individual into a men's facility).

What physical danger? Do you have some statistics to back up this claim which is wheeled out regularly to try to persuade us that some men belong in women's spaces?

Even if you can supply some evidence that this actually happens, it just shows that men need to be more welcoming of trans identifying men, and it's nothing to do with women. And it doesn't change the Supreme Court judgment or the law.

MedicalConsensus · 25/06/2026 09:42

ArabellaScott · 25/06/2026 08:29

So all these years, as we've slogged through the courts, the media, the court of public opinion, patiently sharing evidence and data and making the arguments over and fucking over again, we were doing it wrong? Who knew! Brilliant you are here to help.

What first attracted you to the job?

Most of us are not professional debaters, myself included, and I certainly don't think there is a universally "wrong" way to advocate for something you care about. What makes a debate "effective" is entirely subjective.

The author isn't saying you are "doing it wrong." The author, who also has a subjective view of what makes an efficient debate, is simply pointing out why you have to argue over and over again on the same thing.
The essay identifies the core loop that stops the conversation from progressing: the two sides are arguing past each other using entirely different metrics.

Identifying that core loop seems like the only way to finally break it so people don't have to keep having the exact same exhausting argument for another decade

Ereshkigalangcleg · 25/06/2026 09:45

Also, we’re not “forcing” anyone to use a men’s facility- we’re just saying that women’s facilities are not for men. By all means campaign for your own space.

GriseldaandMike · 25/06/2026 09:46

MedicalConsensus · 25/06/2026 08:17

@WaterThyme
"'If the data shows a conviction rate of 3x the baseline, that completely dismantles the author's argument on the spot. '
It proves the risk assessment definitively... Over half the transwomen were sex offenders whereas fewer than 17% of men were."

Thanks for bringing this data to the table. Didn't intend to extend further than what the essay is stating, but I assume I'm asked to go over this:

If we look at the full text of the parliamentary submission this data is pulled from, it goes on to illustrate the problem I mentioned earlier regarding "social self-identification" versus "medical transition."

First, the document notes that the figure of 129 explicitly excludes prisoners who have legally transitioned and hold a Gender Recognition Certificate.

More importantly, the submission includes testimony from Dr. James Barrett, the President of the British Association of Gender Identity Specialists, who explains exactly why this specific prison data pool is so heavily skewed. He states that there is an "ever-increasing tide of referrals of patients in prison serving long or indeterminate sentences for serious sexual offences" who are pretending to have a transsexual status.
He notes that prison intelligence suggests male offenders do this for ulterior motives, such as gaining transfers to the female estate, securing special protected status, or making subsequent sexual offending easier.
This is a textbook denominator error.

This data does not show that 58.9% of transitioned trans women in the general public are sex offenders. It shows that within the already-incarcerated population, a significant number of male sex offenders are utilizing the prison system's self-identification policies to change their status.

This perfectly proves the point I made earlier: if you base a system on "self-declaration" instead of objective medical markers, the data pool gets completely corrupted by bad actors.
To accurately assess the risk of the medically transitioned cohort in the general public, we cannot use a dataset that the experts themselves admit is artificially inflated by incarcerated male offenders abusing a self-ID policy.

So what 'medical marker' should we use when it comes to letting some.men into women's spaces. Have you discovered a trans gene? Or confirmed the existence of 'lady brains'. If trans women are allowed into women spaces then any man is allowed in because any man can claim to be trans. So how do we stop the ones that are 'at it' for dodgy reasons from waltzing in along with the ones who really, really mean it when they say they think they are women?

OldCrone · 25/06/2026 09:49

MedicalConsensus · 25/06/2026 09:42

Most of us are not professional debaters, myself included, and I certainly don't think there is a universally "wrong" way to advocate for something you care about. What makes a debate "effective" is entirely subjective.

The author isn't saying you are "doing it wrong." The author, who also has a subjective view of what makes an efficient debate, is simply pointing out why you have to argue over and over again on the same thing.
The essay identifies the core loop that stops the conversation from progressing: the two sides are arguing past each other using entirely different metrics.

Identifying that core loop seems like the only way to finally break it so people don't have to keep having the exact same exhausting argument for another decade

The way to break the loop is for men like him to accept that people can't change sex.

It's biologically impossible and it's enshrined in law as well.

MedicalConsensus · 25/06/2026 09:51

Ereshkigalangcleg · 25/06/2026 08:47

That’s what the system is based on though. You seem unable to integrate the information that it is a self ID system. We are just talking about men who at some point have declared that they are women. How do you square that little circle?

I personally am not advocating for trans women in women's bathrooms, thus, I don't think we have to square that little circle, so it's best to discuss it with someone who thinks that.
Well, I could offer solutions if you want, but again, I'm not a representative of that opinion.

Seethlaw · 25/06/2026 09:53

MedicalConsensus · 25/06/2026 09:42

Most of us are not professional debaters, myself included, and I certainly don't think there is a universally "wrong" way to advocate for something you care about. What makes a debate "effective" is entirely subjective.

The author isn't saying you are "doing it wrong." The author, who also has a subjective view of what makes an efficient debate, is simply pointing out why you have to argue over and over again on the same thing.
The essay identifies the core loop that stops the conversation from progressing: the two sides are arguing past each other using entirely different metrics.

Identifying that core loop seems like the only way to finally break it so people don't have to keep having the exact same exhausting argument for another decade

Identifying that core loop seems like the only way to finally break it so people don't have to keep having the exact same exhausting argument for another decade

The only way to break that loop is for men to stop pretending that some carefully selected men should be counted as women when it comes to single-sex spaces. No, they shouldn't, ever. Once men accept that, they can start working on solutions other than "force women to accept some men into their spaces".

Pingponghavoc · 25/06/2026 09:58

The loop is men refusing to take no for an answer.

WaterThyme · 25/06/2026 10:03

This data does not show that 58.9% of transitioned trans women in the general public are sex offenders. It shows that within the already-incarcerated population, a significant number of male sex offenders are utilizing the prison system's self-identification policies to change their status.

That interpretation tells us that sex offenders will use self-id to their advantage. You’re not improving your argument.

The stats still don’t look good.

Ereshkigalangcleg · 25/06/2026 10:05

MedicalConsensus · 25/06/2026 09:51

I personally am not advocating for trans women in women's bathrooms, thus, I don't think we have to square that little circle, so it's best to discuss it with someone who thinks that.
Well, I could offer solutions if you want, but again, I'm not a representative of that opinion.

oh, natch. Of course you don’t have an answer to that, you just want to frame it in totally hypothetical terms which suit your apparent need to tell us where we’re all going wrong 🤣

Ereshkigalangcleg · 25/06/2026 10:08

Seethlaw · 25/06/2026 09:53

Identifying that core loop seems like the only way to finally break it so people don't have to keep having the exact same exhausting argument for another decade

The only way to break that loop is for men to stop pretending that some carefully selected men should be counted as women when it comes to single-sex spaces. No, they shouldn't, ever. Once men accept that, they can start working on solutions other than "force women to accept some men into their spaces".

Exactly.

OldCrone · 25/06/2026 10:09

WaterThyme · 25/06/2026 10:03

This data does not show that 58.9% of transitioned trans women in the general public are sex offenders. It shows that within the already-incarcerated population, a significant number of male sex offenders are utilizing the prison system's self-identification policies to change their status.

That interpretation tells us that sex offenders will use self-id to their advantage. You’re not improving your argument.

The stats still don’t look good.

And when you consider the low conviction rates for sex offenders, there are far more walking around outside prison than are incarcerated. How many of them would also adopt a transwoman identity if there is some personal benefit for them to do so?

Ereshkigalangcleg · 25/06/2026 10:09

Ereshkigalangcleg · 25/06/2026 08:59

@MedicalConsensus

The data we have on specific risk to women of this specific group of men is limited, so that’s why people are giving you information you find inadequate. However, to believe a group of men are less risk to women because they claim to be women is an extraordinary claim, and the onus is on you to back it up adequately, not the people who just cite the known risk of men as a sex class to women.

Please respond to this point if you’re here in good faith, @MedicalConsensus

OldCrone · 25/06/2026 10:16

OldCrone · 25/06/2026 10:09

And when you consider the low conviction rates for sex offenders, there are far more walking around outside prison than are incarcerated. How many of them would also adopt a transwoman identity if there is some personal benefit for them to do so?

Just to add to this, when you consider the large number of male sex offenders and the relatively low number of TIMs, it wouldn't be surprising if there are more male sex offenders or potential sex offenders (both in prison and in the general population) pretending to be 'transwomen' than there are actual 'transwomen' (i.e. men who genuinely believe they're women and aren't doing it for sexual motives).

How do we tell the difference between them?

HousePlantEmergency · 25/06/2026 10:27

Another day, another condescending dickhead woefully underestimating women.

MedicalConsensus · 25/06/2026 10:40

bonfireoftheverities · 25/06/2026 09:07

I've not read all the thread, so sorry if this has been covered, but it looks like MC is the essay writer himself.

Uh, thanks, I guess, I hope she in reading this. Seems I'm doing a good job at interpreting your blog lol

Ereshkigalangcleg · 25/06/2026 10:47

I don’t think it’s exactly a compliment mate

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