Not just due to natural aging either. As people who have been on puberty blockers and/or cross-sex hormones and who have had "gender affirming surgery" age, they are disproportionately likely to have mobility problems, eg. due to osteoporosis and/or cardiac issues, and medical complications, eg. urinary incontinence.
As for the present, according to Disability Rights UK, "Around half of Trans people are also Disabled." (no reference cited but there is research support for this claim).
Disability Rights UK opposes the UK Supreme Court ruling on ‘biological sex’
17 April 2025
https://www.disabilityrightsuk.org/news/disability-rights-uk-opposes-uk-supreme-court-ruling-%E2%80%98biological-sex%E2%80%99
If that is true then up to 50% might already be using Accessible Toilets because of a disability, ie. rather than because they are trans. In which case the additional pressure on those facilities will not be as severe as it would be if all or most people with the POC of GR were able bodied.
Also, according to a "Disabled Trans member of DR UK staff":
"Trans people are developing debilitating conditions and bladder problems from being unable to use public bathrooms for fear of harassment."
Trans and Disability Justice: How Are Our Struggles Linked?
17 April 2025
https://www.disabilityrightsuk.org/news/trans-and-disability-justice-how-are-our-struggles-linked
Presumably the author would therefore welcome the fact that the Code of Practice includes a suggested scenario at 13.124 where a service provider pushed for space and funding "extends the use of the accessible toilet with baby changing facility so it can also be used as a mixed-sex toilet for anybody who does not wish to use the toilet for their sex.", ie. because this would alleviate fear of harassment?
Disability Rights UK has not yet published a response to the Code of Practice so we will have to wait and see. However, as DR UK "opposed" the Supreme Court Ruling I doubt that they are going to be over the moon with the Code of Practice.
ps. Estimates of proportion of "trans people" (adults) who have a disability or long-term medical condition - courtesy of Grok.
Around 40-50% of trans people in the UK report disability or long-term conditions, higher than general population rates (~20-25%).
Evidence summary:
- Scottish data: 43.6% of trans individuals report disability.
- UK GP Patient Survey (2021): Trans/non-binary adults show elevated long-term conditions (e.g., mental health, learning disabilities, autism) vs. general population.
- Other UK surveys: Self-reported disability in trans groups often 33-45%+.
Disability Rights UK claim aligns with US data (~52% for trans) and UK patterns, but exact UK-wide figure lacks comprehensive census cross-tab (ONS has gender identity by disability datasets, limited published overlap).
References:
Uncertainties: Self-reported data; definitions of disability vary; trans population small (~0.5%); potential selection biases in surveys. No single definitive UK statistic.