Brigitte Phillipson blocking EHRC guidance

[lcakethereforeIam]

I'm not sure if there's anything new here though

Phillipson blocks trans guidance after landmark Supreme Court ruling https://share.google/P91PBE5Cy4ROwsdA1

It's a very stark article in the Telegraph.

I was exactly that woman 😬 I'm going to assess the situation in 2026. My constituency is Labour or Reform and I'm not voting Reform. I might vote Tory if there's a good candidate. I like my Labour mp and he's not a trans activist so we'll see how they do over the next 2 years. I'm certain Reform will win here at the next election so in some senses it doesn't matter.

Even as a male voter, gender critical concerns informed my vote.
When our local Green candidate spoke up at the election husting that she was proudly gender critical and opposed the freezing out of concerns on this matter, I switched my vote from the more typical Right candidate I'd normally have considered.
I know 100% that the next Green here will be a Polanski fanboy or girl, I'll ask my wife to lock me in the house rather than vote Green again, lol.
Reform have a lot of work to do to convince many to switch allegiance, ignore the polls which are purely registering "openness" to vote Reform, not "actual" intention.
I'm pinning my hopes on the most consequential gender critical in Parliament to be in a position to right this listing ship in 2029, Kemi Badenoch.

Pollsters will tell you there's a basic difference when you brief the two main legacy parties. The Tories travel lighter ideologically. They will sometimes be blinkered on a particular topic - Johnson/Truss/Sunak on immigration is an obvious one - but on a base level they understand that they aren't philosopher kings, they're hot dog vendors. When Kevin Hollinrake reads the polls, the first thing on his mind is how to sell more hot dogs.

Labour are much more prone to operate on the basis of their own theories about the electorate, and often those theories are wrong. They do lots of polling and focus groups, but disregard the results when they go against Labour conventional wisdom. Add to that the kind of people who become Labour MPs, who often seem more interested in morally improving their constituents than representing them.

I sometimes think there are only three people in Labour who seriously believe you have to appeal to the median voter, and of them, Deborah Mattinson has been kicked upstairs to the Lords, Morgan McSweeney is stuck doing admin stuff at No10 (which he isn't very good at), and Shabana Mahmood is trying to run a notoriously unmanageable department while being out on a limb among her own MPs.

They're buying time before the next set of elections.
They need the pro-trans youth vote and are trying to appease them by continuing the pretense that men with a fetish are really women.
The young women are too gullible/groomed to see the trans movement for what it is. They have yet to learn how far some men will go to get a boner.

The left have always been "blank slate" theorists.
That human nature is malleable and can be moulded by Marxist theory.
That was ok during the class war part of history, where the left felt the need to educate the working classes to their way of thinking.
And what did the ungrateful unwashed do?
They voted for Thatcher, for Brexit, for Johnson.
Now that the class war was lost unequivocally by the left, they've morphed ideologically into trying to win the social/intersectional war.
Again, insisting that the great unwashed lose their antipathy to mass migration, illegal immigration, Net Zero Now!!!, exponentially burgeoning welfare bill, BLM radical "anti racism", and pertaining to this thread, opposition to radical gender ideology.
And they cannot stomach that every new poll shows less and less public approval for trans ideology, Reform at an all time high etc.
What's truly amazing is that the left have lost the class AND culture wars, yet their structures of power act as if society is left wing and hyper progressive.

I think it does matter if you end up voting Conservative, because it may give them some hope if people do vote for them, rather than just not bothering to vote at all because Reform are likely to win. I'll probably do the same where I live if the Tories field a decent candidate. In some constituencies in my city they do not even bother to field one.

Im not sure how big the youth trans vote is. But im not sure how many would vote just on pro trans issues? If greens didnt talk about trans at all, would they lose support?

Do leaders of left parties want the 'what is a women' question in 2029? Or are they hoping its going to be sorted by then?

Kemi Badenoch is always being told to wind her neck in on cultural issues.
No, she needs to put her neck right out there.
Starmer's bait and switch on trans ideology is now plain to see.
Davey, Polanski, Swinney, Corbyn and Sultana are all proudly TWAW, treating the SC ruling like a nasty rash.
Farage? The jury is out. I think like Jenrick, and tbh, most men in politics, even the ones first out to hold the cultural barricades, the gender thing just passes over their heads, it's of little consequence.
I think Reform will be gender critical, but unless it shows itself in 2029 to be an absolute wedge issue, it'll be low on Farage's priorities.
Leaving only Badenoch, who's been consistent right from her first day in Parliament speech, as the only one who'll major on total clarity as a policy position.

Kemi has been very sharp on this issue, and she's stubborn enough not to be deflected from it. I don't think it's terribly controversial in the party either - it's more that the blokes in the party wouldn't give it a high priority.

If she should fall as leader, her most likely replacement is Cleverly, who I don't think would shift back to TWAW, but who doesn't see it as very important and may want to soften the tone.

Of course, if they can somehow wangle a way to get Penny Mordaunt back into Parliament - say if Sunak should stand down in Richmond and Northallerton - then she would instantly displace Cleverly as the default candidate of the wets, and then all bets are off.

Reform's problem is that they are a bit of a boys' club at the top level, but their share of the female vote has been climbing and that's being reflected by who they're choosing to put out to be faces for the party. Keep a close eye on Laila Cunningham, who's clearly one of the rising stars and will probably be their mayoral candidate.

Never sure how reliable these things are, but there's real evidence showing a sharp upswing in "Gen X Soccer Mums" (sorry if that's a phrase not permitted on here, lol) seriously considering voting Reform.
They're pissed off with crime, the NHS/caring, the fact the teaching unions did all they could to keep schools shut even longer than they were
...and critically, gender issues. Had enough of their kids' schools not informing them of hidden transitioning, mixed toilet/changing facilities.
Just a straw poll, but more and more of my female friends and women I know professionally, are not only just saying they're scared and pissed off, but are openly mentioning Badenoch positively, and also seriously contemplating Reform.
A decade ago, no way would a Badenoch, nigh on impossible UKIP or Brexit Party, get swathes of women seriously on the cusp of voting for them.
No, it would have been Jacqui Cooper, Theresa May, Penny Mordaunt etc who'd have got women's votes, even the gender critical ones.
Things will get even more snarly if Angela Rayner ascends to becoming PM.
Maybe the only woman who despite crushing early poverty and misogyny against her will have gotten to the top job in any Western nation, who will nevertheless rule as the greatest transmaiden possible.

Angela Rayner is very dim. (As, of course, are many male MPs). She couldn't survive the intense scrutiny of a Labour leadership campaign, either behind the scenes or in front of the camera. She may mean well, but she thinks so very slowly and is easily fooled.

The large majority of British people will, when presented with the very real risk of a very stupid person representing the UK on the international stage, step back sharply. Hence the repeated failings of magical Grandpa Corbyn.

And not another Liz Truss, never, never again.

Add to that the kind of people who become Labour MPs, who often seem more interested in morally improving their constituents than representing them.

This makes perfect sense.

Regarding the (non) implementation of the FWS ruling at the SC, the general public needs to hear more from every day trans identifying men. I’m serious. Get Robin Moira White on QT justifying their use of the ladies toilets. Or Lindsay Watson talking to Laura Keunsberg about their campaigning against transphobia. Stephanie Hayden commenting on legal cases. The Sparkles polycule members on the need for access to dilating facilities. Get them front of the mainstream media cameras, give them a microphone and Let Them Speak loudly and longly. So that the general public is in no doubt about the vulnerability of the Most Oppressed In History.

Sadly that bunch are followed by lanyarded twits, many of them women, shouting 'well not all of them are.....(sexually interesting in their choices, obviously not safe to be in women's spaces, not people you would yourself ever wish to be in an enclosed safe space and/or forced to accept intimate care from unless you want to be slapped with a hate crime, not very well hinged)'

Ask them how you select which ones they would like women to be forced to undress with/strip searched by, and how they keep some out and some in, and they all stand there and make faces like stunned goldfish.

Ask them why those people cannot have a gender neutral space in which women who consent can go and undress with them and be strip searched to their heart's content, while women needing single sex spaces can have those and everyone can just get on with their lives...

and they get even more goldfishy.

The answer being of course, the gentleman with the hard on under his pink leggings will feel thwarted if a woman is permitted to escape his use.

Indeed, I'd almost want Rayner as PM just to watch her dull pessimism up against Badenoch's sprightly optimism.
A moment later, I realize she'd be the biggest enemy to women and free speech in the UK, and lose my enthusiasm for that.

I think you need certain qualities to be a successful PM, that are not just the obvious ones like charisma or good communication skills.

Most important is a kind of intelligence that's not necessarily book smart - if academic cleverness was the main thing, Enoch Powell would have been PM - but something I think of as political intelligence, by analogy with emotional intelligence. Blair was unusually good at this - people who worked for him say that he might not grasp the technical detail of an issue, but he'd get the politics of it very quickly.

Then I'd say a vision for what you want to do with power, where you can have some flexibility but you're obviously setting a direction for the government.

And also, because the PM has to do enormous amounts of bureaucratic paperwork, a high boredom threshold.

Because these qualities aren't very common in our political class, I think the parties latch onto rising stars who seem to have bits of these qualities, and it's not until they become leader that we see what they're lacking.

And that's even without thinking of policy. If there's one minister in this government who knows what he wants to do and is good at using the machinery of state to get it done, that's Ed Miliband. Whether you think what he's doing is a good thing... that's another matter.

Reform will copy Trump on the gender nonsense, but it they won’t do it as our allies. All this talk of plunging birth rates and the great replacement theory makes me very nervous.

I suspect while all the noise is around Rayner, Burnham and Streeting to a lesser extent, it'll either be the Blue Labour darling Mahmood, or indeed the "been there, done that" Milliband who gets the nod.
Where your analysis is poor for Milliband is that he might have the nous for knowing the system and knowing what he wants to get done, in the public eye he suffers from the very same affliction that Truss did.
Geeky, overly big P political, zero warmth or relatability, hard to disguise zealotry.
And the curse that all Labour politicians have, zero experience in the real world, zero understanding of people's real concerns, zero CV of running anything that could be described as wealth creating or needing practical skills.
Not someone you'd ever sit down in a pub and share a few pints/G&Ts/bottles of wine with.
I feel no warmth or connection with any Labour apparachiks, maybe partially Mahmood.
Rayner could have been someone you could bond with over experience of the real world, but she's chosen to throw her lot in with the Omnicause/lanyard class, a working class single mum in poverty who decided not to champion actual other women, but the "women" sporting the aura that the rest of the lanyard class see as religiously as Catholics view the Virgin Mary.

Georgia Meloni didn't have a fairy tale chilldhood, either. I note she and Kemi seem to get on very well and regularly whatsap' each other.

Didn't know that, good thing she remembered the poor women she came up with, those she's trying to fight for.
Rayner's championing of trans rights to the ultimate limit is one of the great mysteries of modern politics.
Suicidal empathy is absolutely a thing, and explains a lot.

@SionnachRuadh Keep a close eye on Laila Cunningham, who's clearly one of the rising stars and will probably be their mayoral candidate.

She spoke at the Stop the PB Trial demo

Unfortunately, never say never in terms of the perennial dim witted getting elected. See Zack Polanski. Even to the role of PM. Sigh.

Especially with the Moscow bots aiding and abetting. Farage Putin’s first choice, but Raynor would be such a weak leader, he’d be okay with her as 2nd best.

My area has a good Tory candidate and for the first time ever I’d contemplate voting for them. It is a cold shock to realise this. But it’s a case of doing so because of ruling out all other possibilities. I am so bitterly disappointed at every political party but Kemi / Tory might be the least worst option.

I might have voted Labour despite not voting for them last election. Not now they’ve shown their true stance on TWAW and definitely not with Raynor as leader.