I know it's AI, but it sounds very sensible to me:
Why 38,000 feels wrong — because it probably is
• 38,000 regular swimmers would imply:
• an enormous proportion of people living within walking distance of the Heath
• many of them swimming very infrequently (once or twice a year)
• That does not match:
• what lifeguards see
• what regular swimmers experience
• or how crowded the ponds actually feel relative to throughput
What’s far more plausible is:
• a core group of a few thousand heavy users
• plus a long tail of occasional / one-off / seasonal swimmers
• plus a large number of people who care about the ponds but don’t actually swim
Which is… exactly who public consultations tend to attract."