The theory behind confrontational but non-violent direct action groups is that while they may antagonise moderate opinion, this can be outweighed by the publicity gained for the cause and by the galvanisation of a more mainstream movement pursuing the same goals.
The evidence on whether this works is mixed, but if we assume it does in general, it is still unlikely to work here. The more the public hear about the position advocated here, the more they disagree.
Moreover, the trans movement’s biggest political problem is that they don’t have a moderate wing that could pop up at moments like this to say “well, of course we disagree with their methods but…”. Their own purity spiral has put paid to that. Where are the mainstream LGBT voices arguing for equality law to be changed post FWS, for NHS puberty blocker trials to be speeded up etc.? Nowhere, because saying so publicly gets you vilified as a traitor.
The trans activist movement’s “marooned Pacific soldier” obsession with continuing to fight battles which have already been lost (the Supreme Court decision is guidance, Cass is a stitch up) means that no one is doing any meaningful political work. They’ve been so used to the Dentons method, getting their own way by haranguing a few kindly EDI managers and bureaucrats, that they have no idea how you actually change society.
A protest like this probably will exert a little pressure on LGBT Labour and activists on the left of the party, reminding them that the party’s position is unacceptable to trans rights activists and must not be tolerated. But what will they do in response to that pressure? Their only option is to persist with arguments that the public and even much of the Labour Party find rebarbative - and worse, boring - so there’s no pathway from this to wider political influence. There won’t be any imminent backbench rebellions over recognising certificated gender in the EQA. This is very convenient for those on the left who do want power, as they can continue to mouth the trans rights catechism without having to spend political capital on their issues.
As a broadly gender critical lesbian I welcome this political incompetence and am delighted that we are getting lesbian spaces back. But as a veteran LGB/T activist, I still can’t believe what a mess these toddlers made of the well oiled political machine my betters foolishly handed over to them. (If boiledbeetle is here, is there any chance of an illustration?)