"Biological sex is a multidimensional variable with various components" - Thread 2

[MissScarletInTheBallroom]

The last thread ended with Tandora attempting to sidestep the question about what she would say if her daughter had been raped by a trans woman in a female only space and no longer believed that trans women should be in female only spaces as a consequence.

Her last reply was along the lines of, "The same thing I would say if she had been bullied by a green person at school and said she no longer wanted to go to school with green people."

@Tandora can we have a serious answer?

This is so bonkers, it was like the conversation yesterday about CAIS.

You cannot take prison statistics, and generalise about behaviour within the broader population, because criminal justice systems data is heavily biased and not representative of broader populations.

Luckily everyone who knows anything about statistics knows this, otherwise we'd be grappling with some seriously harmful and racist policy proposals for tackling crime.

What I don’t understand, among other things, is that @Tandora’s position appears to be. “Biology plays little or no part in male offending, except for those male people who posses the ‘biological factor’ transness, when it is absolutely key”

Would you object to comparing statistics for trans women and trans men? If it’s ‘transness’ that’s impacting conviction and imprisonment rates?

Ah you're back! Repeatedly underlining that you know more about statitstics that I do (we both have PHDs, allegedly) doesnt make it true, dear.

98% of people prosecuted for sexual offences are male.

Roughly 30% of people currently in jail for sexual offences are black.

Roughly 0.4% of people currently in jail for sexual offences are trans.

None of this has anything to do with equalities law regarding single sex provision.

I hope you are not misrepresenting that fact that people of some races are overrepresented in the prison population versus the general population, which should absolutely be considered against the social backdrop against which it occurs, with the fact that trans women within the prison population have a noticaeble skew to sexual offenses compared to women (and indeed other men) within in the prison population.

In other words, you could use racial prejudice as an analogy if the claim was that prejudice put disproportionately more trans women in prison than other groups (I have no idea if this is a claim or not, simply expanding the logic), but you can't use that analogy when comparing two groups already in prison.

If I have the wrong end of the stick here please do share the actual race-related prison stats you are thinking of so your point about racism can be clearly made and dealt with rather than just unpleasantly insinuated in vague terms that cast aspersions without enough detail to refute them. Thank you.

How do you think it “will pass” now that women are freer to express their discomfort with these men in their female spaces and their disbelief in your ideology? It’s not going in that direction, sorry to say.

Not just about preventing rape. Women's rights to single sex spaces rest on more than simple physical risks, but on the impact on us of all the challenge, risks and inequities that come with being female-bodied in a society still culturally and structurally shaped by patriachy.

Roughly 0.4% of people currently in jail for sexual offences are trans.

So broadly in line with population? Suggesting no particular 'trans' issue?

Good, getting somewhere.

Now look at the sex breakdown.

And what percentage of 'women' currently in jail for sexual offences are trans.

The answer to that will indicate how incredibly relevant sex is, and how little 'trans' matters, and why everything you advocate makes absolutely no sense.

Do you have the source for these figures?

Well yes. You could argue that transpeople as a whole are more likely to be prosecuted, convicted & imprisoned than other people, but then you would expect to see them imprisoned for a whole load of different offences as well. There wouldn't be the skew toward sexual offences.

The other argument is that transpeople are less likely to be imprisoned due to the use and impact of pre-sentencing reports, the 'complications' of housing transpeople in the prison estate, and/or judges' perceptions of them being vulnerable. Then you may argue that those imprisoned would only be the most serious offenders. That however doesn't account for the disparity between the figures for males with a trans identity and females with a trans identity.

It is understood that race has an impact on prison populations because of the links to poverty and the inherent racism in the police and justice system

in other words we need to understand cause and effsct

trsnswomen commit sexual offences at the same of higher rate than other men and the cause is they are male

mixed sex is harmful to women and the cause is .. males

@BackToLurk
It was a very rough quick estimation as obviously changes by quarter and available data is from different years, hence my specification of "roughly".

Figures of proportion of black people in jail for sexual offences are from 2022 as that was the latest breakdown I could find.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/ethnicity-and-the-criminal-justice-system-2022/statistics-on-ethnicity-and-the-criminal-justice-system-2022-html

Figures of total population of people in jail for sexual offences are here: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/offender-management-statistics-quarterly-july-to-september-2024/offender-management-statistics-quarterly-july-to-september-2024#:~:text=Extended%20Determinate%20Sentences%20(EDS),of%20the%20total%20prison%20population.
Number of trans people in prison for sexual offences was taken from here
https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/18973/pdf/

It is understood that race has an impact on prison populations because of the links to poverty and the inherent racism in the police and justice system

Absolutely. A very good example of why you can't take prison statistics and extrapolate to a broader population. Criminal justice data is biased and not representative.

As per yesterday, what have DSDs/racism got to do with why you think trans identifying men should be allowed in women's spaces?

Oh we know that. Hundreds of posts over 10s of pages are there in Advanced Search to testify to it.

Though to be fair, I'd say less Troll, more someone with a deeply held belief who feels it's important to state their "Truth" in the face of those they consider to be attacking that Truth, and considers that statement of Truth to be so inviolate that simply to state it is enough.

I'm sure Tandora honestly believes we all know Tandora is right really but for reasons known only to ourselves are determined to dissemble and deny it.

The fact that all the objections being raised genuinely are the reasons we don't see the self evident Truth that she does, and that just as she feels it's important that what she holds to be True is said, so do we feel it's equally as important that the reasons we think it is not are said, no out of sone abstract philosophy but simply because @Tandora 's Truth has material consequences for how women and girls are seen and treated legally and socially, and that matters just as much as what @Tandora wants to see come to pass for trans people.

I don't think @Tandora is a bad person. I think @Tandora is motivated by the best of intentions. But good people can still do bad things in the belief they are doing right, and undoing legal and social recognition of the significance of physical body sex to women and girls' life experiences and outcomes in the mistaken belief that this is not important to anyone and will have no impact on the way women and girls exist and thrive or not within society is a bad thing.

I haven’t really been following this but - sorry to be rude and blunt - who made @Tandorathe person for whom we must seek answers?!

From whom sorry

This is the second thread now that has been set up by pps- entirely of their own accord, specifically to debate with me. 💁
Certainly isn't something I asked anyone to do.

undoing legal and social recognition of the significance of physical body sex to women and girls' life experiences and outcomes in the mistaken belief that this is not important to anyone and will have no impact on the way women and girls exist and thrive or not within society is a bad thing.

I suspect that if Tandora had been born earlier, she would have been campaigning to do the very things she is now campaigning to undo.

The drive clearly isn't coming from a rational assessment of the pros and cons of the status quo versus a new 'progressive' change. It's a reflexive dismissal of the status quo and the reason for it, in favour of a fashionable idea.

A century back, women would have been beneficiaries of this campaigning instinct, but now having secured their rights, they're just part of the status quo to upturn.

I truly am not advocating to:

*undo legal and social recognition of the significance of physical body sex to women and girls' life experiences and outcomes

This is a complete misunderstanding.

People think that if they accept and include trans people in society, this will be the result. Just like they thought society would collapse if we accepted gay people.

Accepting and including trans people does not take anything away from legal and social recognition of women and girls and physical body sex.

who made @Tandora the person for whom we must seek answers?!

Tandora is the person who will clog up tribunal threads with this nonsense if we don't lead her elsewhere. This is containment for the benefit of other threads.

Otherwise, we call this Operation Let Them Speak.

We each make our arguments, in a public forum. And I personally think it is useful and informative for the readers.

People think that if they accept and include trans people in society, this will be the result.

We already accept and include trans people in society. We're in favour of that.

That's not the public policy you're campaigning for.

The policy you're campaigning for is no specific provision for women - removing all the exceptions that permit sex discrimination where it benefits women.

That's what we're opposing, and it's nothing to do with trans. Trans is your justification for advocacy, but irrelevant to our opposition.

Whether or not 'males with female brains like a DSD' exist, the policy is harmful, letting any male enter female spaces.

A policy of 'let any man who says he's from Venus into female spaces' policy is harmful, even though no men actually come from Venus. (And opposition would not be anti-Venus)

Female spaces WORK, because we can easily identify men and exclude them. If we stop excluding men, they don't.

Accepting of trans people in society isn’t what people here are objecting too though - get that out of your head - you alienate potential allies by misrepresenting the.

they are objecting to them being in society in the wrong place where sex differences are important and differentiation has been accepted

I can't clearly see the figures for the percentage of Black men to be honest. Nevertheless, given that you're happy to use those figures on trans-identifying offenders, what would you put the absence of transmen down to?