Will US Democrats support a WOC as their candidate or will they by pass Kamala Harris?

[IwantToRetire]

Biden Drops Out of Presidential Race and Endorses Harris: Live Updates

After intense pressure from within his own party, President Biden said he was ending his campaign and backing Vice President Kamala Harris to run in his place. Ms. Harris said she would seek the nomination, adding: “Together, we will fight. And together, we will win.”

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/21/us/biden-drops-out-election

I think the Dems will go with Harris and pick a white guy as vice. As VP incumbent there are powerful structural reasons to go for her. Because of the US Presidential ballot system and the huge existing Biden/Harris campaign fund swapping out Harris might mean the Dems lose access to their funds and also have legal challenges to a new person heading the ballot in some states.

Harris has quarter of delegate votes needed already.

"President Biden has endorsed Vice President Harris to take over as the Democratic nominee to be president, but she’ll still need to secure enough delegates to officially replace him.
Close to 4,000 delegates will gather at the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago starting on August 17. Biden has won more than 3,800 of those delegates, who will now all be released to vote for whomever they choose.
To win the nomination, a candidate must secure 1,986 delegates. As of 10 p.m. on Sunday, 531 delegates had already endorsed Harris."

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4785260-vice-president-harris-delegates/

However polls show Harris trailing Trump by a few points. She has a better chance than Biden did, but still very tough fight. It will come down to a few states. Her big advantage is she can pay age card and she is also a fairly good debater. She might look Trump look bad in the next debate.

I think she could scrape a win, but she needs to do way way better than she has ever done before to do it. If she makes a few big campaign blunders she is sunk. She is NOT a great campaigner she is a bit awkward. She is also only a average speech maker. As VP she has mostly been in the background except she was given some responsibility in border matters, which are in a bad state. She had no power to change things at border, but Repubs will happily use it to target her as a failure. Throw in the misogyny/race factor and it is tough to win.

Clinton was a better candidate in 2016 only she failed to campaign enough in a bunch of states and also made some campaign blunders. Hillary did better than Trump in debates, but that wasn't enough. Harris will not make the mistake of avoiding target states, but there is a lot that could go wrong for her.

Also I should have said this. Women's issues are going to be bigger now in the campaign.

If Trump plays what is a woman card a lot he could REALLY do a number on Harris. Obviously she is going to focus on abortion, but Trump can counter by focusing more on women's sports. The republican convention had a few speakers mention that to huge cheers including Trump. It is a big wedge issue.

There is one more scheduled debate on ABC, if abortion comes up Trump would be daft not to counter by refocusing on Dems confusion over biology.

While in an ideal scenario race and sex don't influence people, the real world says otherwise.

As Kamala walks into any room, unfortunately the first thing judgements about her are made on is her race and sex. It would be disingenuous to pretend it's not the case.

We are talking about American politics, so yes. Sorry but that's the reality.

Not only that but Harris does have an issue with her own image tbh. Normally the Vice President has 'a cause' to which they attach themselves and promote. Harris hasn't really managed to do this and the argument I've heard is 'what does she actually do, what does she represent and who is she really?'.

She's not really taken ownership of the Vice Presidency and 'made it her own' if you will. The argument is that she incredibly non descript and lacking in presence.

And she's going to go up against Trump. Perhaps this will work in her favour but I very much doubt it.

The US perhaps more than any other western country looks for personality and 'a strong leader' . That's particularly true for anyone who leans slightly right but potentially could swing left for the right candidate.

Historically the younger looking candidate has always won the US election - with two exceptions - the first is Hilary and the second is voting against Trump (I frame Biden's win in this way deliberately as he didn't carry enthusiasm - it's similar to Keir Starmer's election in that the main motivating factor was a vote for competency at the last election not voting for Biden).

You also have to factor in the mentality of Christian America which is deeply patriarchal to a degree that Western Europe finds totally alien. There are many women who feel strongly that their role in life is mother and wife before career. (Career women are a coastal thing and goes hand in hand with atheism which is also deeply associated with the Democrats).

It's women, much more than men who make up swing voters. Trust will be important. Do they think they can trust Harris with their daughters. So abortion rights and women's rights are going to be pushed really heavily if Harris gets the nomination. That may entrench and alienate a whole bunch of men too. And honestly, stuff like the Title X stuff is going to be problematic for Harris rather than a help. I think women voters will trust a male democrat more than a female one, if they aren't deeply associated with the likes of Dylan Mulvaney.

I actually think that being a woman is more problematic than being black when it comes to US politics.

I think Harris is a deeply problematic candidate, and that will be seized on by Trump and his team. He will be delighted if she is the Democratic candidate.

But I say all this, mindful I've not spoken to a single person including Americans who are staunchly Democrat who hasn't said Biden is past it, he needs to go and he can't win. Not one. That's the problem and the lens that everything must be seen through.

Problem is Harris is too closely associated with the regime that kept the sudden and severe decline of Biden's cognitive condition a secret from the US public. I don't think it can be underestimated, the breathtaking arrogance of Harris and other senior Dems in recent months, lying to camera again and again, saying that Biden was 'sharp as a tack'. A bare faced lie told again and again. The sheer disrespect shown to democracy of that will be one for the history books.

I've said before that I am sure that Putin would not have attempted the full scaled huge land invasion of Ukraine had he not been confident in his info that the US president was too decrepit to pose a serious buffer.

So, in my view, whilst the next few days will be full of fake congratulations for 'Joe' for 'putting the country first', , over the coming months there will be anger at this deception carried out on the american public, and it'll also be a key point of research by future historians. And Harris is too closely associated with that.

She will be the nominee, and she won't do well, because her track record isn't great. I thought it was interesting that Obama conspiculously failed to endorse her, claling for a 'process' instead to find the new nominee.

It might win over some Democratic voters to elect Harris purely on the basis of her sex and her mixed race, but it would lose many others ( Republicans and floating voters). She does not have a great record in office; her communication style is garbled and uncertain; she resorts to easy and predicatble mantras about identity politics - rather than coming acrosss as on top of her brief; and seems to have no obvious vision for the future.

Agree. Identity politics is over in the US, just as it is coming to an end here in UK. Sanity is returning and people are once again remembering that content of character is more important than colour of skin (or gender, ethnicity etc etc).

And yes her track record isn't good, and she publicly lied on Biden's behalf again and again and again.

I do think she will be the nominee tho as big donors are swinging behind her, including just now Alex and George Soros who are massively influential over the Dems.

“I've said before that I am sure that Putin would not have attempted the full scaled huge land invasion of Ukraine had he not been confident in his info that the US president was too decrepit to pose a serious buffer.”

Putin managed to annex Crimea - a large chunk of Ukraine - with barely a murmur from the then Obama led USA.

I suspect it will come more down to the fact that she doesn't inspire confidence in many people - regardless of political allegiance. Those who are automatic Democrat voters will vote for her because she's the candidate, but most of the others will not.

That's why I said 'full sclae land invasion'. What Putin started in '22 was on a truly different scales to what happened in 2014/15 and everyone knew it.

Can I also just add that Nancy Pelosi clearly has more balls than the rest of the senior Dems put together because it was her intervention on Morning Joe that emboldened everyone else to start shouting about the emperor's obvious state of nakedness.

I presume the suggestion of legal action around the democratic ballot is because Biden has ‘simply changed his mind’ about standing. He won the vote of states in uncontested primaries and then just decides not to stand. He has NOT withdrawn from the race due to ill health.

Of course, everyone knows it is about cognitive health but that wasn’t given as a reason or he would have had to have stood aside as President too. So he has just changed his mind, ignoring the state representatives who have committed to vote for him.

"A first woman president only means something if the word woman means something."

x.com/salltweets/status/1815142129276182600?s=46&t=WHoOZ_3Kv5G6-FyQuvE0LQ

I don't think it can be underestimated, the breathtaking arrogance of Harris and other senior Dems in recent months, lying to camera again and again, saying that Biden was 'sharp as a tack'. A bare faced lie told again and again. The sheer disrespect shown to democracy of that will be one for the history books.

I couldn't agree more. Industrial scale deception and, as far as I'm concerned, no-one who colluded with it should be allowed anywhere near public office again .

Personally, I would prefer the man who incited a lethal uprising at the Capitol never to be allowed near public office again. And that’s leaving aside the sexual assaults and his other attempts to undermine the democratic election eg asking Pence not to
sign off on the results.

I see there are already attempts to change the subject to Trump. Not going to work. The Democrats are responsible for this and they need to own it.

I am not “changing the subject to Trump” (and given I don’t have a vote, it’s not that relevant anyway).

But if you are criticising Harris for “a cover up” then I think criticising her opponent for his considerably worse actions is more that reasonable.

I will leave it there,@Floisme

I heard George Clooney's name being whispered as the Democrat candidate. I don't know anything about what his knowledge of politics is, but I'm not sure that matters!

Clooney has decades of political and social activism. As a philanthropist, he has consistently put his money and efforts where his mouth is.

I think that if, because of Trump, we cannot expect a basic level of honesty and decency from the party in government then, regardless of whether we have a vote in the forthcoming election, we are in deep, deep shit.

I too will leave it there.

Did anyone see Frank Biden's interview on (I think) CNBC a bit earlier.

Confirming that Biden is stepping down for a 'health issue' and saying that the Biden family just want to 'enjoy whatever time we have left' with Biden.

This creates a problem because AFAIK the nominee can only step down if there is a diagnosed major medical issue. If that issue is Alzheimers or Parkinsons then questions will invitably be raised as to when the diagnosis was known, who knew it and who was involved in actively covering it up and lying to the american public. The fall out from that could run up until November and Harris would be well advised to stay out of it if she can (difficult, as she's on cameria many times denying anything wrong with Biden) as it will damage her chances.

@StickItInTheFamilyAlbum it was Clooney's op-ed in the NYT which really stabbed a hole in the 'nothing to see here!' Democratic facade, and he apparently wrote that with the approval of Obama, to whom he is close. Clooney let it be known through his PR channels that he was 'disturbed' and 'upset' by the state of Biden at the recent fundraiser. He could be a good VP, although I'm not sure how his image of 'ultra privileged Hollywood elite' will hold up in the VP debate against Vance who comes from a genuinely hard scrabble, appallingly poor West Virginia backwood background to somehow get into Stanford law. But Clooney's goodlooking, charismatic and make shore up Harris in voter communication, where she is weak.

I think it's happened to both parties ? You stack up huge majorities in safe seats but fall short in swing seats. Both UK and USA have very dated winner take all systems though.

But you have to cut with the grain. Incumbents tend to have two terms in the US. People can hedge bets by voting against them in mid terms for Congress or Senate. You have to be a pretty poor Potus to be evicted after 1 term. Trump was booted in a landslide. He no longer has the benefit of the doubt. He screwed up big time during Covid. Harris has incumbency. She will be good on women's rights. She is neither senile nor suffering from a sociopathic disorder. Not very exciting or even likeable. Rather like Starmer. She'll do.

So you do not vote for him.

In terms of sexual assault, Trump is odious but will he lock women up in group cells with rapists who unsurprisingly go on to rape them? Or make it an offence for girls to object to getting undressed in front or boys?

But Biden still IS president. If he is suffering from Alzheimer’s or Parkinson’s and they are talking about ‘enjoying what time we have left’ then the bigger question is why hasn’t he stepped down as president?

Are the nuclear launch codes in the hands of a man with dementia with the support of Kamala Harris?

@RedToothBrush love your analysis of 7.45am today, it's spot on. Personally I don't think she should stand, another reason is to protect her own mental health and well-being.

EXACTLY! That Frank Biden interview was a massive mistake because now all the questions will be about what the diagnosis is and whether he now needs to be 25'ed.

I've said before that I am sure that Putin would not have attempted the full scaled huge land invasion of Ukraine had he not been confident in his info that the US president was too decrepit to pose a serious buffer.

Putin was also confident in his info that the Ukrainian people would welcome his invading troops with open arms.

He was wrong on both counts.

It must have come as a nasty shock to him.

I'm sure he's none too pleased there's been someone in the White House for the last 3 years who has been standing up to him.

[Edited as I can't type straight.]