Agree.
At the moment, the youth vote is solidly left leaning. But that is likely to change I suspect.
In France the youth vote is very much the base of Le Pen's support. Its an interesting contrast. Is there a widely different set of generational values?
Or is it more to do with who is the political establishment and who is the opposition and just general public dissatfaction with current politics throughout Europe. Its not been an easy political time.
Over the last 5 years both Brexit and Covid have provided challenging issues for the UK and France. Add in concerns about immigration which will only be driven by climate change and polticial unrest in Africa and the Middle East. Add in Russia.
So whats going to happen?
Macron calling an election is surprising, but I also think he is one of the few politicially astute politicians who can see the incoming issues far in advance. He's screwed and won't be able to action anything now anyway so he perhaps has nothing to lose. He really hasn't handled a lot of issues well.
He either forces everyone to rethink and vote for him in a panic. Or Le Pen gets in. But will Le Pen government for 5 years be able to handle things better? Given France priorities? I bet theres an element where Macron also thinks 'well let them take control and mess it up and let what the public think then' to an extent. He is that arrogant afterall!
And in the UK?
When the opposition become the establishment do we think that youth politics is going to be quite so enthuased by it? I'm not convinced. I think a fracturing the most likely scenario.
The Tory Party has been plagued by division since 2016. These fractures haven't been confined to the Torys though. Starmer has only just about kept a lid on it. These fractures are going to play up. The opposition will be from the back benches not across the floor. Just as Johnson found, its not a recipe for stability even with a huge majority. Things he should have got through, Johnson was unable to. Why should I think that Starmer will be able to do better? If Starmer is a fence sitter, then there could be more inaction than you think. If he tries to take on certain issues, you could see a fracturing. Anything contentious will be picked up and jumped on my the opposition to stir the shit internally within Labour.
I do think this could drive a youth far right movement in time too. The rise of Incel Culture generally is noteworthy. There is more of an appetite for certain views than we give credit for. 'Be Kind' is not exactly true in practice either.
We also have this growing acceptable face of ageism in the UK within British politics which I think is fascinating and will play out in ways we haven't quite got on the radar yet. I think thats one of the next things to look out for. There's a desire to almost 'punish the boomers'. Its part of a generational tipping point in demographics thats affecting politics. Power is changing from one age group to another.
And yes. Farage as the main opposition leader terrifies me. Or even as the loudest voice amongst a group of opposition parties with a similar number of MPs on the opposition. Farage WILL win a seat. That means he WILL have a huge part to play for the next 5 years and he WILL be on every political show going (and probably not turn up for actual debates). The idea that he won't stoke division like he did previously and he won't be like Trump is pie in the sky.
How Starmer intends to deal with that, is quite beyond me, if he's not engaging with groups who feel ignored. Thats how the far right feeds... on the centre's failures to engage with grass roots.
We'll see. I don't think it will be plain sailing. Blair was in a MUCH better position all round. A lot of people want Blair II (minus WMD and wars). They won't get Blair II. Ironically John Major handed the keys over to Tony in a financially fairly decent state compared to the shit show today. This is more relevant than anything else.