Good question.
You are ALMOST there as to why women say no to all males in single sex spaces not just prisons.
No one can tell who the 'good ones' or the 'genuine ones' are. No one. That's the foundation stone of safeguarding - that you shouldn't just dismiss the risk because it's someone you know, like and trust. Everyone should be subject to rules which are pose the lowest risk profile to all, regardless of identity or socio-economic status.
This is also where accurate data collection matters to women.
If the data shows that males regardless of gender identity, pose a higher risk to women than women only, there's an issue. And that's exactly what the data - where biological sex not legal fictions is accurately recorded - shows.
Keep in mind the following:
The conviction rate for sex crimes is abysmal.
The number of cases the CPS put forward for trial is abysmal.
The number of women willing to put themselves through the trauma of a police investigation is tiny for good reason.
It's almost as if male pattern behaviour remains an issue to women after transition and this is the problem for women not just gender stereotypes based on appearance.
With this in mind, there is an issue for women here, which the prison figures, don't reveal the full scale of. Because statistics and reality are more relevant and important than this weird fantasy world which has been created by activists where all trans people are law abiding citizens who wouldn't hurt a fly.
Why do you think women are objecting to be being told they have to sacrifice their safety and their dignity to accommodate males in the spaces. Especially when the justification is about the safety of transwomen with absolutely no regards or thoughts to the safety and dignity of women?
Difficult question this one.
Have and use third spaces or transwomen deal with their own problems amongst themselves without making it a problem where women are the collateral damage and are harmed under the guise of 'protecting the most vulnerable in our society'.
This shouldn't be difficult to understand, but validation trumps everything and the implications to women are something that an merely a throwaway one line afterthought.
Yet again you are illustrating the point that your life experience and world view from a position that only a male can have (cos only males can be transwomen) is an issue. It's so self absorbed you don't see the risk that women see to themselves.
This isn't transphobia. This is a measureable risk that can be demonstrated with fairly robust evidence. It demonstrates that males will go to extreme lengths to gain access to vulnerable women if the system allows them to. But is framed as transphobia in an attempt to supress that data collection and evidence gathering and that is to the detriment of women only.
The only solution is to recognise there is a problem with any male in a female space and to act accordingly to prevent access regardless of identity and THEN to work out how you protect the more vulnerable males.