Labour/ Lib Dem coalition after next GE - possible?

[JohnnyMcGrathSaysFuckOff]

Keir Starmer has today refused to rule out (i.e., ruled in) creating a coalition with the LDs after the next general election.

How likely do people think this is, and how frightening? How can GC most effectively deal with this?

Copy n paste of Times article posted 4 hours ago, as I know not everyone subscribes

Sir Keir Starmer has repeatedly refused to rule out making a deal with the Liberal Democrats if Labour does not win a majority at the general election.
The Labour leader said he was “going for an outright majority” but on more than seven occasions avoided the question of whether he would agree to a formal or informal deal with Sir Ed Davey, his Lib Dem counterpart.
Starmer has repeatedly argued that Labour’s results in the local elections — gaining more than 500 councillors, many in Leave-voting territory that the party had lost in recent years — put the country “on course for a Labour majority”, despite some forecasters suggesting his party would fall just short.
It raises the possibility of Starmer seeking an agreement with the Lib Dems to pass key legislation. Davey’s party was also resurgent in the local elections, gaining just over 400 councillors.
Asked by Sky News whether he would strike a deal, Starmer said: “I’m not answering hypotheticals, but we are aiming for a majority and that’s what we are confident about.”

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He did rule out an agreement with the Scottish National Party, saying that “there are no terms” on which he would do so.

There is a “fundamental difference” between Labour and the SNP, Starmer said, adding: “I do not believe in the break-up and separation of the United Kingdom. I do not believe that our future will be better if we put a border between Scotland and England, so there’s no basis for an agreement.”

Nevertheless Stephen Flynn, the SNP’s Westminster leader, claimed that Starmer would “not walk away from becoming prime minister” if he required the backing of the SNP. “Keir Starmer is a man who has broken many of his pledges, not just to the Labour Party but to the wider British public in order to try and become prime minister,” Flynn told Good Morning Scotland on the BBC.

He said that the SNP would insist that a Labour-led government “deliver the powers to Holyrood to hold an independence referendum”.

Sir Keir Starmer with, from left, Lisa Nandy, Tudor Evans, the newly elected leader of Plymouth council, and Angela Rayner
STEFAN ROUSSEAU/PA
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Sir Tony Blair, Labour’s last election winner, said that Labour should not be “complacent” about the general election but praised Starmer’s progress. Blair said that Starmer has “done a pretty good job pulling the Labour Party back from where it was”. But he told Bloomberg TV: “Of course you can’t be complacent about these things at all.”

He said that Labour must use the coming months to forge a modern and optimistic agenda. “One of the biggest problems for Britain at the moment is the sense that we don’t have that strong forward momentum behind a plan for the country’s future,” Blair said.

On Tuesday Starmer suggested that Rishi Sunak’s wealth meant he struggled to understand the cost of living struggles. “If you compare the prime minister and me: When I was growing up we couldn’t pay our bills and our phone was cut off and I know the anxiety and the shame it has for families, so I know what people are going through,” Starmer said. “He’s a wealthy man — that’s good, I don’t knock that. But it means that he doesn’t understand, he doesn’t know the anxiety that people are going through.”

Addressing Labour’s newly elected council leaders, Starmer said they had been handed a “mandate to deal with the cost of living” and that dealing with the problem at a local level would act as a “blueprint” for a Labour government.

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Davey has said that his party’s central task is to “get the Tories out of power”, calling it a job that has “never been more important”.

• Daniel Finkelstein: Davey has deprived his party of influence over Labour

Starmer’s seven evasions

Beth Rigby, Sky News: You sat next to Ed Davey at the coronation on Saturday — is he a man you could do business with?

Sir Keir Starmer: Look, I’m going for an outright majority. I’m often asked ‘Will you do a deal with the SNP?’, and I’ve been absolutely clear: there are no terms on which we would do a deal with the SNP. I want to push on to a Labour majority.

Rigby: What about the Lib Dems?

Starmer: I’m not answering hypotheticals, but we are aiming for a Labour majority.

Rigby: You are ruling out a deal with the SNP on any terms, but you are not ruling out a deal with the Lib Dems.

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Starmer: As you know with the SNP, it’s a fundamental difference: I do not believe in the break-up and separation of the United Kingdom.

Rigby: Just to be clear, you’re ruling out any sort of arrangement with the SNP and you are not doing that with the Liberal Democrats?

Starmer: I’m clear I’m pressing on. I want a Labour majority government.

Rigby: Last year you said you would not go into coalition with anyone, including the Lib Dems . . . You’ve changed your position.

Starmer: No, I’ve said throughout, and actually from the day I took over as leader, that I want to go for a Labour majority government.

Rigby: Last year you said you wouldn’t have any formal arrangement with the Liberal Democrats . . . You’re not saying that today.

Starmer: I want a clear majority Labour government.

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Rigby: You haven’t answered my question — are you prepared to come to some sort of arrangement if necessary, informal or formal, with the Liberal Democrats?

Starmer: Well, Beth, you can ask me as many times as you like. The answer is I’m pressing on for a Labour majority.Labour Party
UK politics
Keir Starmer

Rule of thumb, whatever Sir Keir says, expect the opposite.

No coalition with the LDs...coalition with the LDs.

No self ID...you can guess the rest.

Vote Labour get Lib Dems

Crikey I'm not sure thats a great election message

I think the lib Dems make the offer of coalition on condition we go back into EU which is their policy. BUT UK will have to adopt the Euro, we won't get the £4 billion rebate like we used to do, we'll have to accept Schengen and re-adopt legislation we ditched. It could be very interesting.

I don’t see much of a difference in their approach to gender ideology

They are both a risk

But what they will ask for will be interesting

Maybe EU stuff but I can’t see it happening without another referendum if it’s a big shift

I think it's a real possibility, and for me it would be the worst outcome.

In 2019 I wanted that outcome because I wanted the Lib Dems to hold Labour's feet to the fire over Brexit and make a second referendum or soft Brexit a condition of forming a coalition. Gender issues weren't really on my radar back then.

Now I think it would be the worst outcome, because gender woowoo is the only thing Labour and the Lib Dems unequivocally agree on and which doesn't cost any money (just women's rights, safety and dignity), so it's probably the first and only thing that would get done.

We'll never rejoin the EU, we'd need unanimous agreement from each of the EU27 (including referendums in several countries) and we'd never get it.

EFTA is a more realistic prospect and avoids the issue of joining the euro, although we may end up in Schengen, which I can't really see the issue with.

I think it's a definite possibility and it might yet persuade me to vote Labour as I'd prefer them to win an overall majority than be left cobbling together some kind of centre/left deal.

I really hope not. Have no time for LibDems but wish Keir would come off the fence on what a woman is.

I wouldn’t have any problem with that outcome.

This. The gender woo stuff was a soo to the Lib Dem’s when they were in coalition with the Tories. Easy to give the Lib Dem’s something very few ppl in the Tories had even heard of let alone understood which as far as they knew would cost them nothing

I agree we will not re-enter EU, but think the LDs may be thrown a sop there.

I am worried this will be a bit like Greens and SNP where the smaller coalition partner pressures a willing/ unbothered larger party to give them women's rights as a sacrificial lamb.

Yes, I think many on here are right, Lib Dems would push their self gender identity policy and Kier, not knowing what a woman is would just agree with them. Female spaces and races would be under further threat. I really don't want to vote for any party. That makes me angry.

Very real possibility or with the SNP( although Labour will say they won't). Horrendous for women'/children's safeguarding if so. I can only hope the Snp go back and pursue the Scottish GRR again and make another arse of it and the public hate it . Surely Starmer will see that Labour would be very foolish to press on with it ?🙏

EFTA countries are all small and don’t want the UK to join.

Unfortunately, I don’t think it matters whether there’s a coalition or not. I think the Labour party will try to bring in self-ID either way. Hopefully the Lords will throw some spanners in the works if they do get in and do get that far.

I agree with this!

Also I think that it won't just be Lab/LD, but a more broad informal coalition of so-called "progressive parties" being in the ascendancy. This being because the electorate are (rightly) desperate to get the Tories out, and as we've seen in the local elections, are getting quite effective at tactically voting.

I think we'll be seeing full-on hardline TWAW everything in the next parliament.

I think the fall out behind the grr in Scotland will convince liberals not to push this in coalition. They will be happy to accept something like a royal commission.

My guess is lots of people are privately realising the problems with self id and will look for any excuse not to have to push the issue

If it’s in the manifesto I don’t think the Lords can do much about it

@drwitch My guess is lots of people are privately realising the problems with self id and will look for any excuse not to have to push the issue

Agree with you, Self ID could be the next Lib Dem’s “student loans” debacle which i’m sure they want to avoid.

I also hope the full Cass report comes out before the next election, which should protect children.

I think if enough shit goes down before the election with the Cass Review, Mermaids, men in prison etc. there's an outside chance Labour might claim they need to focus on economic recovery first and they'll get round to self ID as soon as they can in order to kick it into the long grass for a bit.

That's all I've got.

My best guess is:
Conservatives are going to pretend to care about this issue as it resonates well with their core voters. Sadly not because they give a toss about women but because they hate anything off centre. Used to be gay people but no more so just have immigrants and trans as easy targets.

The Conservatives have nothing left to fight on as they've fucked the economy & law and order & immigration, their usual go tos, so will have to go in hard.
For us GC lot this is a difficult one. It's good as it raises the issue and highlights the problems of lack of protection for women's spaces etc. However, it also plays into the hands of the "TERFs are bigots" lot as aligns us with the traditional bigots (the conservatives).

This makes it harder for Labour. They are (fucking slowly) beginning to realise the issues are separate from the bigotry but have dug down too much.
However, Keir is woolly about issues and goes to the popularist majority to chase the votes (Brexit, immigration, benefits) and is basically Tory-lite.

if Labour then need to have a coalition to be in power this issue could be forefront and Lib Dems might use it.

The best thing to do for us is then to make sure Labour win with a healthy majority. Obviously the Tories won't win or be ina position to be in coalition unless there is a world war or something.

If this is your voting issue then think hard about who to vote for. A Lib Dem coalition could be a disaster. Be better to have an outright Labour majority.

I keep seeing this about a Labour majority

Why are people so sure Labour will be any better on this?

Looking at Labour in Wales and hearing Starmer I’m not seeing why others are so convinced

No chance I’ll vote for that but the posts asking people to give them a majority are interesting

And Labour in Scotland too

I will not vote for a Labour Party that has committed itself to Self Id, and that continues to leave their own Mps unsupported ( Rosie Duffield). Furthermore my own local Labour MP refuses to meet with her constituents on this issue. She says it is a manifesto commitment and that we are wasting our time.

I think there are many Labour die -hards who are looking for the tiniest slither of hope that Labour will wake up; but in this hope they are deluded. It is all there in B&W and not one memeber of the shadow front bench is suggesting anything otherwise. Believe them!

I think the Lib Dems, Greens, Plaid and SNP are all worse than Labour on this issue and my worry is that if there is a coalition then the things the different partners all agree on are likely to get done as a matter of priority, i.e. self ID.

I've been a Lib Dem voter for most of my adult life but they are completely down the rabbit hole on this issue. They have actually said, "If you don't agree TWAW, don't vote for us." (Well, fine, I won't!) That says a lot about what their priorities are. One of their councillors seems to spend her whole life on Twitter scolding people for "misgendering" convicted rapists, ffs. They sold their voters down the river over tuition fees and I stopped voting for them for a while because of that, then I gave them a second chance after Brexit because they were the only party taking a clear anti Brexit position. But that's done now, they failed to move the dial even one iota, now all this trans nonsense, there's absolutely no point in voting for them.

I'd like to vote Green but they're no better on this issue, and in any case, in the last election the only candidates in my constituency were Tory, Lib Dem and Labour.

I think I would prefer to see Labour win an outright majority if there's absolutely no chance of the Tories staying in power, simply because then Labour can do what they want to do rather than needing to negotiate with the Lib Dems or other small parties. Yes, that probably does still mean self ID. But there's an outside chance that if enough shit hits the fan between now and the election, they'll quietly dial down their position on this issue and maybe delay it for a bit. I do think the Tories are the only party that really does understand electoral arithmetic, and that there are a lot more women who need single sex spaces and don't want to be referred to as people with cervixes than there are trans people. But after the Tories, I think Labour are the most likely to understand this point, and I don't think they actually want to come to power after nearly 15 years of Tory rule and then immediately do something which makes them about as popular as Nicola Sturgeon is right now. Parties like the Lib Dems and the Greens don't worry about that because they've never won an election and never will, so they can afford to take an ideological position rather than a practical one.

I hate to say this, because it's genuinely awful, but the most helpful thing right now would be for more evidence to come to light of women being harmed by trans women.