Labour/ Lib Dem coalition after next GE - possible?

[JohnnyMcGrathSaysFuckOff]

Keir Starmer has today refused to rule out (i.e., ruled in) creating a coalition with the LDs after the next general election.

How likely do people think this is, and how frightening? How can GC most effectively deal with this?

That said, I am not going to vote Labour (it wouldn't make any difference in my constituency even if I did because I vote in a Conservative safe seat). I'm just, for the first time in my life, not going to cast a vote against the Conservatives.

Not voting is not an option here. Suck it up and vote for the only candidate in your constituency who clear on this issue. Otherwise others will get in by default. It's as simple as that. No game playing as it's too important.

I don't know whether I can bring myself to vote Conservative, but I am not ruling it out at this stage. I wrote to my MP about the Equality Act debate on 12th June and will wait and see whether I get a response to that. If I get a positive one I might write to him again about other trans issues and if I'm encouraged by his responses I might consider voting for him.

If there's a sensible looking independent candidate I might vote for them.

I have previously voted for Dr Louise Irvine (she was conveniently an option during my Lib Dem hiatus) and I so wish I could vote for her again because she is strong on women's rights, but she doesn't stand in my constituency anymore. (That should also tell you who my MP is, if you're interested.)

I have GC sympathy and I can't get my head around how anyobe could vote Tory after the last 13 years. They are not sympathetic to women (did you see JRM on Trump?) or rights in general. They've done nothing about police culture. I'd rather have a viable country where you can start to have discussions than continue with this spiral.

It's quite a large party with a spectrum of views on different topics. On this they are the only option in my area.

I get Labour GC voters are more conflicted on which way to go so the coalition issue is a way out if you feel Lib Dems are worse

I just don’t see evidence of that. Look at Drakeford, Scotland, Starmer and Lammy type statements

It feels like wishful thinking

I will vote though as agree with pp it’s important (not for Labour though)

With any of the other parties in power there won't be a discussion though. It will be self ID, meaning that in a very real sense women will no longer exist as a distinct category of people with our own needs, and we will have to wait at least 10 years before we can even try to reverse that.

It's like Brexit. I think there would now be a clear majority for rejoining the EU if it were an option, which it isn't. And I think there would be an even clearer majority for giving up some sovereignty in exchange for a better trade deal with greater alignment with EU law so that British consumers can stop getting spanked so much with price rises and stock shortages. But there's also a consensus that it is too early to start making the argument for rowing back on what has been done in the last few years, and that that conversation can't start until the hard-line Brexiters are no longer in power, or have died in significant numbers, or the British population have suffered so much that the conversation can't be put off any longer.

The same thing will be true of self ID, if it comes to pass. Even if a majority of the population understands that it is a bad idea within a very short time after it is done, or even before it is done, once it is done we will have to wait a very long time before there is any political appetite for undoing it.

I think I would prefer to see Labour win an outright majority if there's absolutely no chance of the Tories staying in power, simply because then Labour can do what they want to do rather than needing to negotiate with the Lib Dems or other small parties.

@MargotBamborough I agree with this too. Better to have Labour getting an outright majority, and we can focus our efforts on (the few) reality-based grown-ups in the room who understand they have to actually govern competently, than to have them hostage to the loony smaller parties who will need their glittery fantasies feeding.

Did you see Mark Drakeford insult and shutdown a perfectly reasonable question on women’s rights from Laura Ann Jones the other day?

Starmer too says no one is discussing it so he won’t either

If they won’t engage for your vote pre election why would they after they win?

None of these wankers are getting my vote. I still have an opinion on what the least dangerous outcome would be.

I appreciate this, but I can’t see what you are all
looking at when you say least dangerous as they look on a par.

Labour won’t answer so not sure where better on this comes from? I just see it as the same but trying to avoid backlash

Maybe the manifestos will help. But if they put in ‘modernise’ the GRA and refuse to say what that means I’ll still have no idea

Men refusing to answer women on this question is more maddening than anything. How dismissive

I explained above.

Basically I think that the Lib Dems in particular are even more extreme than Labour on this issue, but they don't get as much attention because nobody really cares what the Lib Dems think about anything. Labour are getting a certain amount of pushback on this, frequently being asked the "what is a woman?" question and having unflattering opinion pieces about them written in the media for their incoherent stance. They know it is an issue even if they don't want to admit it. Starmer clearly knows it is.

So the way I see it is this. If Labour wins an outright majority, Starmer might say to his cabinet, "We need to tread carefully, look what happened to Nicola Sturgeon, we need to bring the general public round to our way of thinking on this one, so yes, we'll bring in self ID but maybe not straight away, let's get some brownie points first, let's give nurses a pay rise or improve the trade deal with the EU or something most people approve of, then when we've got enough support we can talk about self ID."

If Labour has to form a coalition with the Lib Dems, the Lib Dems will most likely say that reforming the GRA is a priority and there's no reason why Labour should disagree because they've consistently supported that, so let's get it done quickly and then we can negotiate a position on the more complex policy issues.

Oh, I 100% agree with you. It's just that even knowing that {Labour are misogynistic-no-debate-in-love-with-their-own-righteousness-up-their-own-arses} there's actually many many levels of crazy beyond where Labour are at, and the other so-called progressive parties are absolutely bathed in it. And unlike Labour (who will have to govern somehow), the minor parties can demand all kinds of utter batshittery because that's all they have to think about.

Or, what @MargotBamborough said.

I know the Greens would likely prioritise it as an issue although atm they are not mentioned as part of a coalition

I do agree they’ve held SNP over a barrel and been fairly destructive given their size

For Lib Dem I’m trying to envisage what they’d prioritise, would they bother going for PR as they lost the AV referendum in 2011 and although it sets them up as a party if it wins, I doubt it would in this current climate. Post Brexit big change maybe not so appealing and you get a big concession not to be squandered

Then there’s EU matters, Starmer idiotically signed up for Brexit voters with his position but would they go for this?

Self ID how strongly do they feel about it?

Anything else they could go for..

Out of all the coalitions SNP or Greens would worry me more, Lib Dems is it possible to go to EU stuff or is it really gender stuff they most care about

Let's not forget that the chair of Stonewall, Iain Anderson, has quit the Conservative Party after 40 years of being a member, and joined the Labour Party, with a source stating that he is “furious” that Rishi Sunak has blocked Scottish transgender self identification proposals.

He's totally committed to Self ID.

The reason nobody ever talks about the Greens in terms of a coalition is because they have only ever had one MP. The only time it would be useful to have the Greens in a coalition is if a proposed coalition between (most likely) Labour and the Lib Dems was one MP short of a working majority.

A coalition with the SNP would be undesirable because ultimately the SNP want to break up the UK, so their interests are too far apart from those of Labour. They're also on a downward trajectory in terms of popularity and Labour will be hoping to win many SNP seats back at the next election.

So that only really leaves the Lib Dems.

I don't think Brexit is a big issue for the Lib Dems anymore. I think they've accepted defeat on it, and even though I'm sure they would support any move to bring the UK back into greater alignment with the EU, I don't think they would try to lead the way on it.

Proportional representation maaaaaybe, I know it's something they want. They did get burnt last time though, making major concessions in exchange for a referendum on the AV system which was a total damp squib in the end.

But I don't think it even really matters what their red lines would be, in the sense that any coalition negotiations would start with, "OK, what do we agree on?"

The Lib Dems are really very committed to self ID, and so I think that would go straight on the table without the Lib Dems even needing to concede on anything else in exchange, because Labour have spent the last few years telling us all how committed to self ID they also are.

So it would probably be like, "OK, well, self ID is happening because we all agree that's important, so let's put that on the legislative agenda straight away and then get on to discussing what our other coalition priorities should be."

Whereas I think with Labour alone there's more of a chance of Starmer saying, "Yes of course we'll do self ID, but XYZ is more important so let's focus on that first" or "Yes of course we'll do self ID but Isla Bryson is still quite fresh in people's minds so let's wait a while for that to blow over so we have less pushback."

And every day this gets kicked into the long grass is a day when another trans scandal might break, making the issue even more politically difficult.

You do realise that the version of conservatism that is actually in power is the authoritarian. The one that actually doesn't want you to have any rights if you happen to disagree with them or at least not be able to express them. Quite honestly if we vote them back in they will be worse than they currently are, nothing will change and the country will be even more broken.
It feels to me that this conversation is like how we got into brexit - party before country and let's have a protest vote.
The bit that really puts me off GC is the quite happy alignment with the far right by some people. It's incredibly uncomfortable for someone with my centre left views and I just couldn't put aside my ethics. I think it makes the issue unsympathetic for many because of who the bedfellows are. A less polarised more constructive conversation would go further.

But and this is a big but, I do get it because the polarisation is on both sides and I'm deeply uncomfortable with people who say they are women (transwomen) displaying incredibly aggressive male behaviour to anyone who has a different view.

So I'm conflicted. But nothing will get me to vote conservative in the near future if they carry on as they are and certainly whilst the dog whistle politics/racism continues.

OK there are two major issues here.

Firstly, you warn about authoritarianism. And yes, for what it's worth, I agree that the Conservatives have done some worrying things, such as trying to restrict people's right to protest.

But the left is authoritarian too, especially on this issue.

"Trans women are women, no debate."

"[People who do not agree that trans women are women] must be educated. And those who do not respond to education should be expelled from the Labour Party."

If you stand up for women's rights, like Rosie Duffield, the Labour Party will hang you out to dry.

Politicians photographed smiling in front of a placard saying "decapitate TERFs".

Does this stuff not worry you?

Secondly, enough about "GC" and the far right.

Am I "aligned with the far right" if we both say water is wet?

Of course not.

If the far right says water is wet, must I then pretend I do not agree that water is wet, so as to not be aligned with them?

Of course not.

The left has played into the hands of the right in general by throwing women and girls under a bus. Obviously the political right is going to exploit that.

What do you want us to do about it?

Not fight for our own rights because some people who are arguing in bad faith or who haven't taken the time to actually understand our point of view say that fighting for our rights makes us aligned with the far right?

What kind of bullshit is that?

Women's rights is not, and has never been, a right wing position.

And if you want to argue that believing that biological sex is real and important is now a right wing position, that says far more about the political left than it does about the political right. Namely, that they are completely batshit and unfit to govern.

They don't have that kind of political capital. Last time the lib dems managed to wrangle free school meals for infant school children.

I'm not seeing any aligning with far right tropes from any respondents on MN. You can criticise us for considering voting Conservative. But I don't see anyone aligning to anti abortion or homophobic concerns.

I think you should withdraw that accusation.

Did I say mumsnet gc people anywhere in my post?

Maybe you should withdraw that accusation? And there the polarisation goes on.

Sorry, read that as on here. All I can say is that I only follow moderate voices on the GC side, no time for the anti abortionists etc. I think you'll find that applies to the vast majority of GCs.

And far right doesn't necessarily homophobia or anti abortion (there are some far right that are pro abortion) it means authoritarian. It means the type of language Bravermann uses.

I'm with you on that. Unfortunately the inability of Starmer to truly differentiate himself from Sturgeon, Drakeford, Greens radical policy on gender, and the whole left/centrist drift across the West to self ID, is a red line for me. As it is for many others.