Back to the original question:
I don’t think it’s because they “realise the gig is up”, unfortunately. I think it’s about group dynamics. There are different dynamics in different parts of the world.
I think the UK situation is still mostly at the level of student politics. Student politics is not known for its restraint. Campaigning students have plenty of time, opportunity and enthusiasm for loud objections. They are also often easily influenced.
The huge majority in the UK are of the student protester type. They are excited by thinking they are doing good. As we saw in the Laughing Auditor’s video, what is mostly occurring, is still not actively violent. Blocking someone’s path, shouting loudly to drown out the opposition, name-calling. These are all antisocial behaviours, but still well within the realms of what students might see as being reasonable, non-violent protest. They can still tell themselves they’re on a righteous path.
Consider children (especially teenagers) who push boundaries, more or less for the sake of it. What happens when they receive no push back or where there are no clear boundaries set? They crave attention and so they escalate. I think that plays a large part in what we are seeing here. Easily led young people, attracted to the idea of righting societal wrongs, attracted to confrontation, feeling excitation at fighting back, particularly against older women who (like their mothers) are trying to stop them having fun.
There are others amongst them, however, who are very different, for whom violence is normal. Those students, with their unquestioning adulation, are the perfect front. The police (who are never sent in sufficient numbers to actually deal with any law breaking) are especially tolerant. As someone said in another thread, those students are the offspring of members of the class who hold the power. The “protest” is still on the edge of legality. Small boundaries are being pushed. The students who enjoy confrontation will feel excited by this minor law breaking, and with the fact that they are getting away with it.
Then another boundary is pushed. A minor assault, committed right in front of the police. Because they are already allowing the law to be broken, because they are there in insufficient numbers, this escalation is also allowed to pass. The students see this tolerance and thus this escalation is normalised in their heads as well. Those abusive men have used the escalation tactic before. They know how it works and how long it can take before the naive will realize they are being used. Suddenly they have the power they have always craved.
In addition, young men who enjoy violence for its own sake can see this dynamic and its attractions. In some protests they have begun to turn up in their black clothes and masks. They were not present in the Laughing Auditor’s video, but they too see the dynamic that is developing and will use it.
The escalation is related to these various group dynamics and the wholesale lack of any kind of restraint or reaction from those who should be keeping the peace, but who have decided to achieve that by tolerating minor infractions. Rather than nipping this in the bud, the police are choosing to ignore and (presumably) hoping it will all go away. There are probably many among them who see it is only women who are being intimidated and think that the women could easily avoid putting the police in this position by shutting up.
I think the end of “no debate” has changed the dynamic. Women meeting has provided an opportunity for bullying in the form of student-style protest along with the unsavory undercurrent. The women are not shutting up, ergo those who enjoy abuse and violence and will use any excuse, see an opportunity. Crowd dynamics, the tendency to follow others, are all being put to use.
In NZ I think we saw misogyny, which had been pushed underground, find an outlet. There is also financial and social instability pervading the western world at present. The anger and fear people are feeling is being given an outlet as well. And there are those who simply enjoy conflict and are reveling in the opportunities the current, febrile atmosphere presents.
I think it is impossible to see the situation in NZ as one where those demonstrating barely suppressed anger, (mostly) sub-violent behaviour and intimidation as being one where the perpetrators think they are losing. I don’t think they have any doubt at the moment that they are winning.
But I think it is obvious from the Laughing Auditor’s video that, even in the Uk, those involved do not see themselves as losing control of the situation and becoming desperate. They are still indulging in what they see as righteous anger and are still being supported by the powers that be. As they escalate, the optics are increasingly bad and it will reach a point where their behaviour is no longer tolerated. I suspect many rational people are already dropping out. But I’m not seeing fury and frustration. Only cold manipulation from a minority, married to gleeful engagement in antisocial behaviour from rebellious youths.
I think we will reach the stage where there is fury and frustration. I just don’t think we’re there yet.