Trump and LGBT+ Voting

[Sunscreeneveryday]

I was looking at the Sky news breakdown of the US Exit polls, showing how different groups voted.

According to the data from Sky, those who voted Yes to the question "Are you gay, lesbian, bisexual or transgender?" overwhelmingly voted for Trump (76%).

It's early and I haven't slept much, can anyone explain this? My brain really hasn't woken up yet.

Surely they have those the wrong way round? If not, thats a very interesting result, and I cannot explain it

It's surely an error on the Sky website. Other news sources (e.g. NY Times) have the margin the other way round.

I know, it looks wrong and I had to re-read it several times. Then double check that they hadn't decided to switch the colours round and make Biden red and Trump blue.

Some of those heavily invested in critical race theory and queer theory are having a meltdown lol.

twitter.com/CharlesMBlow/status/1323982596980826113?s=20

QAnon worked their magic

There seems to have been a drift among men who voted Democrat last time to the Republicans and I wonder how much that has to do with Biden's outspoken wokeness? People who are worried about their jobs and futures, seeing their businesses fail and so on aren't going to be impressed by Biden and Pelosi's promises to introduce laws and policies that will strengthen trans rights. Trump does at least give the appearance of being concerned about the economy and the things that are bothering ordinary people.

Wonder how many votes the Democrats' wokrness has cost? Know several women in the US who are voting with their noses held.

Associated Press will be the most reliable but I can't find a sexual orientation question in their data.

www.npr.org/2020/11/03/929478378/understanding-the-2020-electorate-ap-votecast-survey?t=1604578267278

[quote NonnyMouse1337]Some of those heavily invested in critical race theory and queer theory are having a meltdown lol.

twitter.com/CharlesMBlow/status/1323982596980826113?s=20[/quote]
Isn't he just !

I see Ayaan Hirsi Ali did as she was told and wasn't impressed.

mobile.twitter.com/Ayaan/status/1324199780113768448

There were HUGE swings to Trump among Cubans in Miami-Dade, who voted overwhelmingly for him.

He also gained very large swings in 95%+ Hispanic areas in Texas.

I think the left in the UK has already learned that it can't take its so-called client vote for granted, as in Northern England & the Midlands. This is the latest lesson.

I find it really interesting that people seem to be voting for Biden as a way to push against Trump, rather than a ringing endorsement for Biden or his policies. And yet I strongly suspect the woke crew in the background will take Biden's election success as solid proof that they need to push through all of their most 'progressive' policies asap.

I wonder if similar stats could be found (or have been found) between Labour and Conservatives in the UK.

I suspect it's evidence of the problems with a two party system where people feel they have to hold their nose and vote for the least obnoxious option, yet the parties assume people love their policies. Hence the shock when things like Brexit is voted through.

What was the sample size? Some demographic breakdowns of polling data can be based on very small samples and might therefore be complete rubbish statistically unreliable.

The Sky stats are from Edison/Reuters and based on 15,234 people. It still hasn't been changed since this morning, although it does seem likely to be an error. Otherwise 2020 is even weirder than I first thought.

I do like the name of the analyst: "Michael Thrasher, election analyst".

The key thing for this breakdown though is, of that 15234 people, how many described themselves as LGBT+? Because if it was a small number, although the overall sample is big, it still might not give you accurate results for that group. (I'm hoping this makes sense?)

Oh I understand, if by chance they only managed to find say 5 people in that 15k who were LGBT and 76% of them supported Trump then it could actually be accurate. Still an odd result though!

Yes. And this is a question that quite often doesn't get answered at all in surveys - so lots of "prefer not to say", typically. So while there's probably more than 5, it could still be far too low a number to really draw a conclusion from.

Good point, 110APiccadilly.

Biden? Woke? He’s practically a centrist. Sanders was much further to the left.

QAnon did a good job of telling folks that Biden was both woke and dodgy
people fell for it

Being left wing and being woke is not at all the same thing.

I agreed with you on this, it looks to me as if Biden is very woke and by UK standards anyway not at all left wing. I despair of Americans I hear calling Biden a socialist, that is some serious misunderstanding of political theory.

Wokeness however doesn’t fit well with socialism since it is hyper individualistic and very capitalism dependent. Society is very much trumped by the individual in woke thinking from what I can see.

Being left wing and being woke is not at all the same thing

George Galloway is one of the least woke people on the planet and very left wing as is Brendan O'Neill.

The likes of Owen Jones and Ash Sarkar would have conniptions if you told them they were political bedfellows of Galloway and O'Neill but they will share many views.

I have a question about these numbers (and the ones indicating Trump increased his support among racial and ethnic minorities):

How have exit pollsters accounted for the apparent hugely increased propensity of Biden voters to vote early or by mail compared to Trump voters?

Normally exit polls are just that: pollsters stand outside the polling stations and ask a number of people how they voted and what their demographics are. This process is already inherently a bit skewed because of course the people who answer are those who have both the time and inclination to stop and talk to a stranger about their votes.

This year, when Democrats and Biden-supporting independents were far more likely to vote by mail, have the exit pollsters accounted for the difference at all?

Yes apparently exit pollers attempted to also contact absentee and early voters. And the results are supposedly a weighted average of all types of voting

However we know from the pre election polls how bad pollsters are at using their models to get accurate data.

I’m very happy to see a narrow win. I don’t see wokesters being happy at all. And divided government means there’s a chance for eg fixing the US equality act rather than jamming it through.

Odd, but I suppose with a sample size small enough you will get skewed data. Also lol at Biden being any sort of socialist political compass should be required reading before making any sort of statement like that.

You don't need to be left or far left to be woke. Lots of politicians of all stripes trying to jump on bandwagons they think will get them more votes or what they feel puts them 'on the right side of history'. That's always been the way.
Biden isn't remotely socialist. And in all likelihood he's paying lip service to various woke committments. However, there are people in the background who are very invested in getting all sorts of woke policies through.

@StandWitch I read an interesting article yesterday about Cubans in Miami Dade voting Trump as a reaction to the perceived wokeness of Biden and the Democrats. It mentioned a dislike of the term “Latinx” which they felt was unnecessary and being imposed on them from outside the community, and being lumped in with Mexicans as a poor, victim minority. I’ll see if I can find it and post the link.