amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/29/tories-culture-war-voters-statues-churchill-red-wall-labout?__twitter_impression=true
The Tories want a culture war – but most voters aren't thinking about statues or Churchill
Brexit is not the only possible culture war in town. Some have suggested that No 10 is actively looking for a fight on cultural and identity issues, seeking to drive a distinction between Tories and Labour for red wall voters – whether on statues, trans issues, or the right to tell offensive jokes.
On the surface, this approach feels like it might work. Paula Surridge of Bristol University has shown that 2019 Conservative voters are united in their social conservatism, while Labour is more vulnerable as its voters are split.
But polling on these issues sets up a divide that might not be at the front of people’s minds. Britain is not the US, where polarisation among politicians has translated into polarisation among the public. In focus groups I have conducted over the last few years, statues, transgender toilets and no-platforming barely register. Most people do not know what “woke” even means. Views are also more mixed than many assume – in my focus groups, people criticised both protesters and Dominic Cummings for breaking lockdown rules, not one or the other.
For the sake of Labour’s electoral fortunes, if the Conservatives do pursue a culture war, the opposition should not take the bait. Years of prominence may mean that, as in the US, the debate becomes embedded in the public consciousness – and as Surridge’s analysis shows, that will be to the advantage of the Conservatives.
Tony Blair recently said the Labour party must avoid launching “politically into a kind of culture war”, and that the party would have a far better chance of delivering social progress if it bided its time and changed things from office. It already looks as if Labour may be learning this lesson. Two weeks ago, the Sunday Times splashed on No 10’s plans to scrap an amendment to the Gender Recognition Act that would have allowed people to change their gender on their birth certificate without a medical diagnosis. It had all the makings of a week-long row, but Starmer sidestepped the issue. The beat of the Conservatives’ culture war drum quickly died out.