Covid-19 and purity spirals

[DreadPirateLuna]

Covid-19 is a very serious illness which threatens our most vulnerable and risks overwhelming the NHS. We should all do what we can to flatten the curve and save lives. People whose behaviour risks lives (e.g. urban residents traveling out to holiday homes in rural communities) should face criticism and sanctions.

However, I can't help feeling that some of the outrage at some behaviours is less about reducing the spread and more about getting caught in a "purity spiral".

Take all the outrage about people in parks. Fresh air and sunshine is good for physical and mental health, it improves the immune system which is particularly important during an epidemic! Many urban residents have no other source of open space except the local park. The ability to get outside can be lifesaving for victims of DV. Risks of contracting disease are very low if you keep your distance from others outside your household.

Yet I've seen photos of walkers and family groups in parks, keeping far away from others, but accused of selfishness and killing the elderly and disrespecting the NHS. Parks in London have been closed, meaning more congestion of other areas and residents confined to homes, which is damaging for reasons outlined above.

And it's usually (though not exclusively) women and esp mothers who get blamed. Those selfish Karens and their broods.

A more sensible solution would be to allow restricted access to the parks. Maybe allow only locals in nearby flats without gardens. But it seems we're not doing sensible these days.

It sounds like Justathought is possible closer to the situation of children travelling between their parents who share care - which is permitted
Quite. You don't have to justify yourself to us just. I'd argue caring for your GD could fall into the vulnerable people category laid out by the govt, depending on the circs. And it is actually noone elses business.

Yes. Of justhadathought caught it, had no symptoms at the beginning as is common but passed it on to others, they would all have an increased viral load. If everyone caught it in a group mixing, then they all are shedding virus onto each other. Remember the chances are no one will have symptoms at the beginning. The increased exposure means a higher risk of being more ill than the person originally infected.

It is one reason it is thought that people who live in multi generational households seem to be at an increased risk of dying.

@QuentinWinters It increases risk to everyone in both those households.

QuentinWinters

If you saw a house being burgled, or someone being mugged, or heard a neighbour yelling and screaming at their children day after day would you consider that none of your business too? Do you turn a blind eye to everything?

Yes. But most of us are going to get it eventually. The lock down is to prevent the health service being overwhelmed, not to eradicate the virus. If people are being responsible and when they aren't exactly following guidelines they are only increasing risks to themselves, not other high risk people, I'm not going to get too worked up about it.
We are adults who don't live in a police state (yet). I can't see the difference between what just is doing and me sending my children to their dads for half the week, which is allowed.

@quentinwaters We are not going to all get it anyway. It is estimated 10% of the population have had it. We won't all get it. There will be developed better treatment for those who do get it and a vaccine.

Anyway I am wasting my time, I know people will continue to break the rules because they don't see any harm in what they are doing. Like the woman I know that thinks everyone is over reacting, or those who think it is inevitable they will catch it anyway.
Those of us who have been reading what WHO are saying know that we need to take this seriously and continue to protect ourselves and our families. That is what I am going to do.
p.s. I have read too many stories of people online who have died whose underlying condition is mild asthma or other unremarkable condition.

Most of us aren't going to get it. Think about it. Currently, studies are showing between 10 and 15% of a population has had it. That means 85 - 90% haven't had it.

When we come out of lockdown they can't let the virus infect people willy Billy because within a couple of months we will be back to here again - country in lockdown, no one working because it will be threatening to overwhelm the NHS again.

What they will have to do is stop the infection spreading as they are doing in South Korea and Singapore. They will have to test, track, contact trace and quarantine, relentlessly because otherwise we will be in and out of lockdown. They can't let all of us catch it because that cannot happen without overwhelming the NHS or without shutting the country down until a vaccine is made.

It's about putting in fire breaks. The spread between your home and your DDS home, plus any associated further spread need not happen

My daughter's home consists of two people.....my daughter and her daughter....neither of who mixes or associates with anyone other than us. My daughter goes to the supermarket like many thousands of others - judging by the huge queues outside.......and I go to smaller stores, plus occasionally to a full range store when necessary. I go there to avoid huge numbers of people and having to queue for ages.

I do understand that the more contacts you have the more chance of contracting the virus.......but we all have to shop for food and other essential items.

You say your husband goes to the supermarket? Is that wise - given how vulnerable you are......? If you were doing this perfectly, yourself......surely he'd be shielding too...and you would be getting neighbours...such as my daughter.... to do your shopping...and leaving it for you on your doorstep ( as she does for her neighbour).

Quite. You don't have to justify yourself to us just. I'd argue caring for your GD could fall into the vulnerable people category laid out by the govt, depending on the circs. And it is actually no one elses business

Thanks! And you're right.....there is a certain amount of vulnerability in my daughter's situation...hence our heavy load of responsibility.

Most of us are going to get it because it is a new virus, so we have no inherited immunity, or partial immunity from exposure to similar viruses (which is what protects most of us from flu and winter colds becoming serious). Covid is now spreading widely in the community, so we can't eradicate it. The only way we can reduce it is by building immunity in our populations either through infection or vaccination (at least 18 months away).

The distancing is to slow the spread, as illustrated in this (old) article
www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook

I'm not saying this to minimise the situation. It's horrible. But in reality the risk of just seeing her granddaughter is to her and her family and really has a negligible impact on everyone else.

Most of us aren't going to get it. Think about it. Currently, studies are showing between 10 and 15% of a population has had it. That means 85 - 90% haven't had it

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that up to 70% of the German population will likely contract the coronavirus, suggesting that the government’s priority is about “slowing its spread

When the virus is out there, the population has no immunity and no therapy exists, then 60 to 70% of the population will be infected,” Merkel told a news conference in Berlin on Wednesday, according to Reuters. The country has over 82 million citizens

The process has to be focused on not overburdening the health system by slowing the virus’s spread. It’s about winning time

Justhadathought

But I have explained it to you.

Any spread between your house and your DDS is entirely unnecessary and any associated spread is unnecessary. You say there are only two people in her house but then go onto say about her going shopping, plus her elderly neighbour plus if she's working.

All of those infections wouldn't happen if you and your gd didn't mix.

As for my husband shopping - how are we meant to do this? He is shopping for our neighbour who is also shielding plus he still has to go to work. We don't have anyone who can shop for us, can't get a delivery and the guidelines specifically say that other household members do not have to shield. We have to maintain strict social distancing at home which we do. He undresses at the front door, clothes straight into washing machine, him in shower, we eat and sleep separately, clean bathroom every time he uses it, stay at least two metres apart at all times.

We are following, to the letter, the government guidelines.

Ultimately, if he gets it he may pass it to me,but it will stop there because I am not seeing anyone. So our extra spread would be one person - me.

We are doing exactly what the guidelines tell us to do. Quite happy for you to criticise me when you can say the same

I think they're aiming to increase the NHS capacity so that most of us can get it without overwhelming the NHS. This is combined with slowing the pace - there has been plenty of talk about off/on lockdown (or at least partial measures) and an article today suggested schools and business might reopen but with prolonged distancing recommendations in place - wfh where possible, avoiding gatherings, limit transport, and so on. This is to slow the spread, but it's not going to stop it. They also made it pretty clear the other day that border closures aren't an option they favours which means it will continue to come in to the country.

They're still very actively building the nightingale hospitals and announcing more. At least some of those will not be ready for this peak. They are going to be needed longer term as this isn't going away.

Most of us are going to get it because it is a new virus,

No we aren't. We can't because neither the NHS nor the economy can support that. You are simply wrong. The plan will be to stop the spread after lockdown

Justhadathought

Think about it.

This appeared in the UK in January. By march we were locked down because spread threatened to overwhelm the NHS. That might yield about 10% infected after six weeks lockdown.

If they plan on letting it spread to infect 70% of the population they will have to shut down every two months for two or three months. They can't do it.

Our CMO originally said 80% would catch it. They know now that it's wrong.

Read WHO they are the experts and say quite clearly that most people getting it is the wrong approach.

alloutoffucks

Yep, it's pretty obvious that it is unworkable

Read WHO they are the experts

Who are the WHO experts? What makes them more expert than leading uk experts?

What the World Health Organisation aren't experts?

Any spread between your house and your DDS is entirely unnecessary and any associated spread is unnecessary. You say there are only two people in her house but then go onto say about her going shopping, plus her elderly neighbour plus if she's working

I've explained to you - but you don't want to hear, for your own reasons.

There is not much spread possible between the two households because she only goes to the supermarket, and to my house......she does not go out to work. She lives alone. She drops the shopping off at the neighbour's doorstep. The neighbours communicate entirely by What's APP.

I've had enough of this, and of you raging on and on......

So then the extra spread is between her and her neighbour ( via the shopping) and between her and whoever she crosses paths with at the supermarket.

It's about reducing contacts wherever we can. You don't want to hear though. Let's hope your DD doesn't get it and infect your husband.

As for my husband shopping - how are we meant to do this? He is shopping for our neighbour who is also shielding plus he still has to go to work

So it turns out that your husband is actually working outside of the home......unlike any of my family...and yet you have the friggin' nerve to go on and on and on. If you are so personally vulnerable, and can hardly eat anything,, and can't even go in your own garden...perhaps he shouldn't go to work, then. Have you considered that? Or is it that your family necessities, practicalities and arrangmenets are simply more important than those of others?

arrangmenent

So hooves how are the WHO/government proposing to stop a population with no immunity getting the virus?

If they plan on letting it spread to infect 70% of the population they will have to shut down every two months for two or three months. They can't do it.

It's horrible. I don't think we can shut down every couple of months like this. But there is no plan for it to spread to 70% of the population. It just will. Because we have no way of stopping it.

There is no answer to this. But just saying "it won't because we can't deal with it" is wishful thinking. It is going to, our only control really is how fast that happens.