Covid-19 and purity spirals

[DreadPirateLuna]

Covid-19 is a very serious illness which threatens our most vulnerable and risks overwhelming the NHS. We should all do what we can to flatten the curve and save lives. People whose behaviour risks lives (e.g. urban residents traveling out to holiday homes in rural communities) should face criticism and sanctions.

However, I can't help feeling that some of the outrage at some behaviours is less about reducing the spread and more about getting caught in a "purity spiral".

Take all the outrage about people in parks. Fresh air and sunshine is good for physical and mental health, it improves the immune system which is particularly important during an epidemic! Many urban residents have no other source of open space except the local park. The ability to get outside can be lifesaving for victims of DV. Risks of contracting disease are very low if you keep your distance from others outside your household.

Yet I've seen photos of walkers and family groups in parks, keeping far away from others, but accused of selfishness and killing the elderly and disrespecting the NHS. Parks in London have been closed, meaning more congestion of other areas and residents confined to homes, which is damaging for reasons outlined above.

And it's usually (though not exclusively) women and esp mothers who get blamed. Those selfish Karens and their broods.

A more sensible solution would be to allow restricted access to the parks. Maybe allow only locals in nearby flats without gardens. But it seems we're not doing sensible these days.

Ultimately, if he gets it he may pass it to me,but it will stop there because I am not seeing anyone. So our extra spread would be one person - me

Or perhaps the neighbour he shop[s for; or perhaps people at the supermarket; or perhaps people at work.......turns out your situation is not quite so text book perfect, either. Or if it is...it doesn't sound like your situation is any less risky than mine. At least none of my family are going out to a workplace.....

But do you know what......I'm not into judging others; especially when I have no awareness of the practical details of their life. Most of us are doing what we can manage within our circumstances...and keeping to the guidelines about social distancing and about cleanliness.

Justhadathought

As I have said, we are following, to the letter, all government guidelines for someone shielding. Literally, to the letter.

You however are not.

Yes, I would love him to stay at home. But the official advice is that he doesn't have to shield. I have to isolate from him and sleep in a separate room, eat separately, not use the kitchen at the same time as him, clean the bathroom after he uses it etc. We are doing every single thing that we have been told to. You aren't.

We don't have anyone who can shop for us

Why don't you ring for help from the many local organisations or neighbourhood groups can offer assistance, then. They exist for that reason. That way your husband wouldn't have to risk going to a supermarket - and infecting himself, or others.......

See how it works?

It's about reducing contacts wherever we can. You don't want to hear though. Let's hope your DD doesn't get it and infect your husband

Yes, we hope so too. Sounds like there is just as much chance of you catching it from your husband.

So hooves how are the WHO/government proposing to stop a population with no immunity getting the virus?

I've already said. By doing what South Korea and Singapore and China are doing - testing everyone, tracking movement, contact tracing and quarantine. They are doing it now. They've contained the spread and aren't in lockdown and aren't having exponential spread.

They are using various tracking apps and apparently the US,UK and German governments are looking at different tracking apps to use.

They cannot allow exponential growth through the population or keep locking the country down for two or three months every two months.

The quickest a vaccine has ever been developed ever is four years. They can't keep that up for four years.

Or perhaps the neighbour he shop[s for; or perhaps people at the supermarket; or perhaps people at work.......turns out your situation is not quite so text book perfect, either. Or if it is...it doesn't sound like your situation is any less risky than mine. At least none of my family are going out to a workplace.....

Yes. Unless you stop everyone from going out at all, there is a risk. As I said, it is about minimising all unnecessary risk. You are still going shopping - that is a risk that you cannot remove.

We aren't then visiting my parents to spread it to them too. That's the difference.

You are permitted to go shopping, you are permitted to go to work. You are not permitted to mix households. That is the difference.

Why don't you ring for help from the many local organisations or neighbourhood groups can offer assistance, then. They exist for that reason. That way your husband wouldn't have to risk going to a supermarket - and infecting himself, or others.......

So, we should ask someone else to put themselves in danger to help us? How does that work? Quite who it is we are meant to ring anyway I don't know. That's why we have to shop for our neighbour - she's still waiting to get the shielded food box. Won't hold our breath waiting for someone to do our shopping. But, you know, carry on breaking the rules and justify it to yourself based on me following the rules.

Yes, we hope so too. Sounds like there is just as much chance of you catching it from your husband.

Not really seeing as we are social distancing at all times. Are you with your gd? Always two metres apart are you?

I came over here to get away from the covid posts...

Two metres is a reasonable guideline where people are in contact for whatever reason. It's not a guarantee of safety, Hooves. Ideally as very vulnerable you should probably be in a separate room at all times, but obviously that's not practical or very nice for you. And people living in a studio flat or who are caring for others won't necessarily be able to isolate at all.

Ideally as very vulnerable you should probably be in a separate room at all times, but obviously that's not practical or very nice for you.

We do as much as is practicable. We sleep in separate rooms, eat separately, spend all day separately. It's one of the reasons why my DD stayed at uni - we just cannot have three adults here and live separately unless I stay in the bedroom at all times and then my dh would have to sleep on the sofa.

I agree, two metres isn't guaranteed safety which is why he gets undressed in the porch, showers immediately, washes his clothes as soon as he comes in, we don't answer the front door, I don't go in the garden. The only extra thing we could do would be for him to live elsewhere ( not sure where though). The guidelines for shielded people is very detailed and I'm trusting that they are enough.

I think that you're doing the best you can, and I realise it must be a very stressful, lonely and worrying time for you both and also your wider family. I hope we find a resolution soon for all of us, and have personal reasons why this situation is particularly difficult for me too (as do many other people), and am certainly not wanting it to be prolonged any more than necessary.

I've already said. By doing what South Korea and Singapore and China are doing - testing everyone, tracking movement, contact tracing and quarantine. They are doing it now. They've contained the spread and aren't in lockdown and aren't having exponential spread.

Their public health approach was different to that of the UK’s though which partially explains the different outcomes. South Korea has tested twice as much as the U.K. In Wuhan people were welded into their homes to prevent them leaving.

I live in Australia where the testing rate is better than the UK’s and the public health response is robust. Plus, it’s an island! Some borders between states are closed, no one who isn’t from Australia can enter the country and those coming home have to quarantine in a hotel for two weeks and are monitored closely whilst doing so. In most states cases are linked to those from overseas, community spread is minimal. There have been 56 deaths.

Even then, when things open up again, it is known that cases will increase. It’s unrealistic to think that U.K.’s social distancing, even with people doing it perfectly, will eliminate the virus given that people still need to shop, work and live with other humans. It’s highly infective and easily transmissible and there are a whole heap of other factors that screw up modelling predictions, like viral load, individual susceptibility. It WILL continue to move through the population and will do so until a vaccine is found. They’ll be a greater spike in the U.K. cf South Korea when restrictions are relaxed because in the UK community spread is greater. The U.K. death rate (deaths per those infected) is higher than other countries, suggesting woeful under testing.

Realistically, if you’re vulnerable and looking at months and months (there will not be low community levels after a few more weeks of lock down) of self-isolation then personally I wouldn’t add layers of self-deprivation on top of it. You’re in for the long haul.

wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0885_article

The transmission distance of the virus seems to be greater than thought, 13ft or 4m.

And for the record, after a 70 hour a week or so on the frontline I am partial to a small glass of wine! Everyone needs something to look forward to.

for you, Mamello! Thank you so much for what you're doing, and for trying to explain how all of this is meant to work.

Also, WhatKatySaid, and this too.

I really dislike the whole 'would you be willing to forego treatment?' line of thought

Is that really the kind of society any of us want to live in? If so, how far does that extend? Are we going to deny treatment to smokers? People whose diabetes was the result of their own decisions? People who get into accidents as a result of reckless driving, or extreme sports? It's one of the aspect of the public response to the pandemic that's bothered me most, along with the comments that old people will die soon anyway so people if the virus hits them hardest then people don't care that much. It's revealing a really dog eat dog underlying psychology that I'm finding disturbing to watch.

Well that kind of thinking has been around for a while now- Some have decided anyone who smokes, is overweight, drinks alcohol etc isn’t “deserving” of medical treatment (unless they pay). I feel that’s tied in with the idea that it’s ok to privatise the NHS (not a view I agree with but it’s out there) but the whole purity spiral thing may apply there too. People who claim to take nothing from the state so why should they pay for others etc.

Sorry for detail.

Here we though having a Do Not Resuscitate order was enough to appease those who are willing to sacrifice other people's grandparents.
Criminy!

Yes, it is a fear spiral, and a lot of it is fed by people not understanding the medical realities, or not understanding that there is actually a fair bit that is unknown and not easy to predict about the medical situation. Some people seem very unaware that some things are really risky and others are only minimally risky and may in fact not be worth the downsides that always come with them. A lot os people seem unaware that there is nothing like a clear agreement among scientists about the best thing to do, or what the models show.

Many people also don't seem to realise that guidelines for this kind of thing aren't absolute in many instances because often there is no good answer. If you are a single mom, do you take your child out with you to the shops where she likely will struggle to follow the rules, or leave them with someone from another household? There really isn't a right answer, you do what seems best.

I have no idea where this ideas is coming that we do not expect that most of the population will get it - that is still the assumption in the medical literature and by groups managing the crises. Some governments have stopped talking about it, I believe because they fear that people will not accept it politically, or maybe they think it will cause more panic. But there is no managing that, a vaccine is not likely to be available in time to prevent it.
Or this idea that people not following the rules means we will need to isolate longer? It's really the opposite, the more the curve is flattened, the longer it will take to get to a place where life can go back to normal, that should be clear to anyone who can read a graph.

So we have people that look at the rules, or masks, or gloves, not as tools that work according to their nature to increase the time it takes the virus to spread, but more like magic talismans where if you have or do the right things, you will not get infected.

But there is clearly a part of human nature that many people thought had somehow been conquered, or was just a weird aberration, that has come out very strongly here. I think this kind of social policing has actually been on the increase over the past 10 years, but right now it's out in full force.

So we have people that look at the rules, or masks, or gloves, not as tools that work according to their nature to increase the time it takes the virus to spread, but more like magic talismans where if you have or do the right things, you will not get infected.

Exactly this.

Some people are exhibiting a form of magical thinking - not in the form that 4 year olds do but the adult form that’s closely clinked to OCD.

There’s this idea that if they do what the government does perfectly - including not spending an extra second plucking something from a supermarket shelf or sitting outside in their own garden - then everything will just be fine and this will all be over soon.

But it won’t be over soon in the U.K. They U.K. didn’t react like South Korea from the onset so they won’t have the same outcomes. Doing everything the government suggests in England won’t produce South Korean outcomes. Borders are open, community spread hasn’t been as well tracked, people are still moving within the community.

I understand that people are focusing on the factors that they can control, but taking this to extremes (not buying hair dye with a weekly shop because it adds seconds to the total time shopping) doesn’t mitigate the bigger factors, like people still entering the country and relative lack of testing. Tightening up one’s personal restrictions to the absolute micro level will just make the months and months of isolation harder.

*Some people are exhibiting a form of magical thinking - not in the form that 4 year olds do but the adult form that’s closely clinked to OCD.^

Magical thinking is a perfect description, and then rage at those who they think are breaking the spell. In combination with not really understanding why the guidelines suggest the things that they do you end up with some downright irrational things being demanded, and then more rage when anyone tries to explain why they're not agreeing to the demands.

I agree that it's driven by fear in many cases, but honestly, figuring out ways to manage their own fear is something each individual needs to take responsibility for, rather than flailing and lashing out.

But but, those are The Rules. To be followed -To The Letter.

If it's not in The Rules, then I can do it.

I also reserve the right to interpret The Rules and shout at people for not following My Interpretation of The Rules.

I cannot be criticised as I am following The Rules. To The Letter.

DSup Ted Hastings

Did you see the thread where people were hoping that the army would be called in and martial law imposed? People have lost their shit (and in many cases just don't have the life experience to be able to imagine what that would be like in practice).

Yes its totally shocking. And frightening.

AIBU is like The League of Gentlemen now

I know some posters mentioned martial law, but they dis't man actual martial law, they meant an extension of MACA, especially into visible policing.

Which did happen a little already this weekend, with military assistance to police in checking revellers heading towards south coast resorts.

I don't think a well-developed sense of community, 'we're all in thus together' is magical thinking. People know the rules reduce the spread , they want the spread reduced, they follow the rules. It's pretty simple and very important right now.

I'd like to hope that nobody is stupid enough to want actual martial law, but current evidence suggests otherwise.