It’s a poison chalice, definitely. Whoever wins will need to be able to make a really big separation between bone and family life and work - keep the personal life self esteem intact but not have a public rhino hide that prevents you hearing the electorate.
Whoever wins probably won’t fight a GE (presuming that we get a full five years) but will do 4 years and be replaced with a fresher face for the final year.
Those considering it, especially the young ones, will be deciding if they are better hanging on for 4 years (of course, you’ll only want to risk that if you have a sizeable majority that means you are unlikely to lose your seat during the GE with you as a new leader).
On the face of things, I like RLB and Lisa Nandy - that might change with more info, but what young (by politician standards!) woman wants to wade into this quagmire of shit? They are both 40 with one child, LN has been MP one term longer but RLB has had more shadow cabinet experience. I don’t know how old RLB’s son is, but becoming leader will mean potentially choosing between a second child and career (they may both have already made that choice, of course, but these are the general issues facing 40 year old women today).
LN was part of the ‘chicken coup’ (rumoured to be an organiser and a definite ally of Owen Smith at the time) and RLB was instrumental in getting Corbyn nominated for the leadership contest in the first place, so they both have history that could tip members either way.
As far as I know (and I live in Greater Manchester so do have friends in both CLPs) they are both decent constituency MPs. Accessible and sympathetic, hardworking.
Lisa will do well to refuse any factional endorsement, I reckon, where RLB will be endorsed by Momentum whether she wants it or not.
Momentum don’t have great numbers but they do seem to be good at organising for internal membership votes. I think great swathes of the membership don’t bother to vote in say, NEC stuff at all. The other organising factions don’t seem to have had much success of late, but this is a new landscape for everyone. Lots of new post GE members, reportedly.
I’m sure WPUK will have good, solid analysis, and no Labour MP who survived this bloodbath of an election can still believe that woke is the way to win, surely?