Trans Women Should Be Allowed In Women Only Spaces

[KiBob]

I posted a few days ago that I need help arguing a case on the debating website Kialo. Thanks to your suggestions I've got one claim accepted that I was struggling with.

I'm now trying to get a new claim past admins.

As a supporting claim to:

"Allowing anyone who identifies as female into women-only spaces makes those spaces worse for cis women".

I put this:

"Trans women are 6 times more likely to commit a crime and 18 times more likely to commit a violent crime compared to female controls as found by this study In Sweden in 2011". With a link to this study:
journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0016885

Admin have responded:

"Hm, interesting link. However, the results don't differentiate between trans men and trans women, and also state this: "Transsexual individuals were at increased risk of being convicted for any crime or violent crime after sex reassignment (Table 2); this was, however, only significant in the group who underwent sex reassignment before 1989." - so this might be a bit outdated - 30 years is pretty long.
Further up, in the Abstract, under results it also says "Female-to-males, but not male-to-females, had a higher risk for criminal convictions than their respective birth sex controls."

Can you point me to the exact place where you get your numbers? Thanks!"

Help!

If you want to show the difference in violence for TW and women using something other than tbe Swedish study then looking at conviction rates for sex offenders is illuminating.

In the UK there are:

13,000 male sex criminals in prison
128 female sex criminals in prison*
60 transwomen sex criminals in prison

Already, given the massive difference in population size, it's plain to see transwomen are more likely to be sex criminals than women - but how likely?

If we use 32 million as population estimate for women and 31 million for male, then we get the following:

1 in 250,000 women in the UK are sex criminals in prison
1 in 2,400 men in the UK are sex criminals in prison

How do transwomen compare? It's hard to get an exact figure given there aren't reliable stats on population size, but using a generous estimate of 300,000* it works out as:

1 in 5,000 transwomen are sex criminals in prison

There's been a bit of guesswork in that number, which has been generous to transwomen and the number could be much nearer to men's in reality. But even if it is "only" 1 in 5,000 - that's plainly much nearer 1 in 2,400 and nothing like 1 in 250,000.

Transwomen's offending profile for sex crime, therefore, is similar to men's and nothing like women's.

Note - this argument is saying nothing about whether TWAW or not. When they counter with TWAW you can say - I'm not making any comment about whether TWAW or not. This is about safeguarding and I'm simply comparing offending rates and looking at relative risks of different groups.

*some of these may be transwomen, it's not clear- but let's assume they're all natal women

** trans lobby orgs say transgender people are about 1% - but this includes not only TW but also transmen, non binary people, cross dressers etc - it's a pretty big umbrella! Would be good to get a more reliable estimate of numbers of transwomen - if anyone knows one?

@Earlywalker I looked at the stats for California prisons as they had the most comprehensive data available online - I also didn't cherry pick trans natal males I looked at the stats for non trans females and non trans males too. So even if there were bias in terms of where someone is imprisoned (and they have multiple prisons in all states in the US,) that bias would be equally reflected and thus neutralised for non trans females and males, afaik. So I don't think your claim of skewed data holds up, quite frankly.
And honestly I am unaware of how the data as present paints transgender males in a bad light? Except for in sexual offences they trended toward slightly less violent crimes than non trans males, or lined up fairly equally to non trans male crime. Why is that painting them in a bad light?

If you're aware of more comprehensive data, please point me towards it, or find and analyse some yourself. Until then, I don't think you can really dismiss my data. Although yes I agree it could be more in depth.

In regards to your comments about race - most crime is intraracial (so committed against the same race,) and often very situational - eg. Black and Hispanic males may commit more crime because of poverty, and gang membership, and getting into confrontational or risky situations. That's without going into all the other aspects, such as BAME males getting far harsher sentences than white males for the same crimes, and thus becoming institutionalised, etc.

everybodypuuuuulllll great data! Do you have a source? If so I'd love a link

No woman or girl should have to share a space with any male where both or either are naked without her freely given and informed consent . Anyone who opposes this is an apologist for rape culture.

This. It's incredibly simple, Earlywalker.

This. It's incredibly simple, Earlywalker where have I even commented my opinion on the issue on this thread? The OPs question was ‘where are your facts and figures from that support this’ I’ve simply said what the facts don’t present, as some people may not be aware of what they are using to back up their ‘facts’
So learn to read or don’t @ me when it’s not relevant.

The Californian study giving info on trans is based on a prison that housed mainly vulrenable men (such as trans) and relates to 1980, does it not?

You've commented plenty on a number of other threads. And it's quite clear what you think by the "oh we can't possibly segregate because it's like racism" posts.

I didn't @ you.

Again learn to read as that’s not what I’ve said. It’s not relevant to this thread so don’t try and start an argument. If you’ve got anything constructive to add to what I’ve actually posted, please go ahead. Otherwise, stop harassing me everywhere I post. Thanks.

I'm not harassing you, just bored of your ridiculous whataboutery and internalised misogyny on every thread.

People who support forcing women to share spaces with males of any sort when naked or otherwise vulnerable are apologists. Whatever silly arguments they employ to do so. Women in prison are especially vulnerable.

Scrumplestiltskin here are the sources:

Trans prisoners = 60. This is a Government stat from the Ministry of Justice in response to Freedom of Information requests, and reported here: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42221629

The same article says there are 125 trans prisoners but points out that this figure may be an underestimate, as it doesn't cover everyone in prison and may not include eg those on shorter sentences or who didn't declare they're trans. The article points that out as it's trying to refute Fair Play for Women's prior estimate of 41% of transwomen prisoners being sex offenders. But when we use the known number of sex offenders against population size, it means the 60 is a minimum - there may be more trans sex offenders who didn't declare themselves as trans / didn't do the MoJ survey.

TAs will throw an accusation out that the trans stats might not all be transwomen, they might be transmen. I read a justifcation for they're all transwomen somewhere but I can't remember where now. I think it was probably Fair Play for Women and based on the (male) prisons they're in.

Rates of male / female sex offenders in UK prisons.

These come from the download Prison population: 31 March 2018 on this page. www.gov.uk/government/statistics/offender-management-statistics-quarterly-october-to-december-2017

However I've just realised I probably shouldn't be using the 125 stat for women, as that's from the end of 2017 - but the only stats we have on trans prisoners (above) are from the beginning of 2017, so we should probably be using a figure from the same same period so it's a fair comparison (not that it makes any difference to the overall picture).

2017 Q1:
Male sex offenders: 13,132
Female sex offenders: 114

For completeness, here are the most up to date figures:

2018 Q1:
Male sex offenders: 13,431
Female sex offenders: 131

Both male and female sex offences are rising. However we don't know how many of the female figures are actually transwomen. It's perfectly possible that the rise in female offending is actually showing a rise in male sex offenders IDing as women.

For comment on sex offenders and other crimes, see The MoJ's Offender Management Statistics Bulletin, England and Wales

Sex offenders
The rise in the long determinate sentenced population is in line with the increasing number of sentenced sex offenders. As at 30 June 2018 there were 13,580 prisoners serving sentences for sexual offences, which represented 19% of the sentenced prison population.

The number of prisoners serving immediate custodial sentences for sexual offences is now at its highest level since at least 2002. This is consistent with the latest ONS 'Crime in England and Wales' bulletin which reports on the number of sexual offences recorded by the police in the year ending June 2018.

Full bulletin here: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/729211/OMSQ-2018-Q1.pdf

To clarify eresh your feelings are not what matter, I don’t care what you think of me, facts are what matter and when you twist statistics (intentionally or not) it is creating your own facts to suit your view and that should not go unchallenged. Unfortunately, in a place like FWR it does go unchallenged as it suits your narrative and that leads to emabarasing situations like the OP describes where the data she presented to back up her narrative was effectively laughed out.
I’m not mysogonistic at all, I just don’t agree with the way some people try and paint all transgender people in a bad light.
‘Whataboutery’ is code on FWR for ‘I can’t answer your question’ I’m not an idiot.
No one is forcing anyone to do anything, I won’t be manipulated with emotive speech to shut me up.

Is anyone else shocked at the figures of 1 in 2,400 men in the UK are sex criminals in prison?

That's not saying 1 in 2,400 have ever committed a sex crime. It's saying, for every 2,400 men in the UK, one of them will be actively serving time, right now, for a sex crime. Given the low rate of reporting and the low rates of conviction, that points to - what seems to me to be - a very high number number of sex criminals walking about in society.

Really depressing

TAs will throw an accusation out that the trans stats might not all be transwomen, they might be transmen. I read a justifcation for they're all transwomen somewhere but I can't remember where now. I think it was probably Fair Play for Women and based on the (male) prisons they're in
Just to clarify on this point, 34 were confirmed to be Transwoman not 60.

Much appreciated, everybodypuuuuulllll

No one is trying to present all trans people in a bad light. Stop misrepresenting what women are saying.

Allowing men to self ID and use women only spaces makes them mixed sex and unsuitable for women.
I don't care that you cant understand that. Its not our problem.

Trans people and their supporters need to campaign for a third space, or make the men's mixed sex.

Incidentally, of the 60 serving time for sexual offences:

27 were convicted of rape (plus a further five of attempted rape)
13 were convicted of possessing, distributing or making indecent images of children
13 were convicted of sexual assault or attempted sexual assault
Nine were convicted of causing or inciting a child under 16 to engage in sexual activity
Seven were convicted of sexual activity with a child
Seven were convicted of indecent assault or gross indecency

From a FOI response from MoJ reported here: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42221629

EarlyWalker source please

Scrumplestiltskin, damn, I've just realised the MoJ stats are England and Wales only, but I've compared with UK population.

I'll need to recalculate. Got to go out now, will be back later and will do that - unless anyone else beats me to it!

It's a simple calculation - just need to find a decent population estimation for women and men in England & Wales in 2017, then divide population by number of sex offenders for each group.

The Californian study giving info on trans is based on a prison that housed mainly vulrenable men (such as trans) and relates to 1980, does it not?

Yes, the stats are older, unfortunately. However as I used the one medium security prison's number of trans people compared to the estimated total number of unincarcerated trans people in California, not taking into account the trans people potentially in any other prisons, I think that works out very fairly. The stats for non trans people had to be taken from elsewhere, and were state-wide not just one prison.

source please
MOJ or your bible, Fair play for woman. From FPFW website -

For data protection reasons the MoJ would only provide exact figures on individual prisons if there were more than five transgender prisons housed there. Nevertheless, even this limited data confirms that there are at least 34 male-born transgender prisoners in just four of the specialist sex offender prisons.

We reported an additional ten in the remaining sex offender prisons that the MoJ did not provide figures for (because they house fewer than 5 trans prisoners) making a total of 44 male-born transgender prisoners. We stand by those figures despite the MoJ’s reluctance to verify them.

fairplayforwomen.com/prison-data-confirmed/

Allowing men to self ID and use women only spaces makes them mixed sex and unsuitable for women.
I agree with that, I disagree with self ID and think it’s a stupid Idea. This thread is about the statistics though. Not feelings and opinions.

Their crimes are recorded by their declared sex. They aren't recorded by their natal sex, or as crimes committed by trans people and you know that.

Trans people and their supporters need to campaign for a third space, or make the men's mixed sex.

This is where I can't understand the argument. Trans men are completely ignored and so only half an argument is presented.

IF trans women use the women's toilets THEN trans men will use the men's, thus the men's WILL be mixed sex (if that's how you want to view it). These arguments are only ever phrased as though only trans women exist.

Fir what it's worth I think the only way forward is to develop a 3rd space but one that is for use by anyone and everyone.

I understand the safety or privacy concerns that are expressed, especially around self ID, but I think that these on their own are strong enough arguments. I honestly cannot understand all the other extraneous arguments eg get men to budge over for once, make the men's mixed sex etc etc.

I think the danger in conflating different arguments is that you actually turn many potential supporters away from your argument.

Their crimes are recorded by their declared sex. They aren't recorded by their natal sex, or as crimes committed by trans people and you know that.
Not sure if You’re talking to me or what you mean? If you hold a GRC (I believe there are around 4000 GRC holders in the uk) then yes it’s recorded in your reassigned sex. I believe there is no data or statistics available on GRC holders though.

Then why do you keep demanding people provide you with statistics that you know don't exist?

UpstartCrow
That is the exact opposite of what I’ve said.