Trans Women Should Be Allowed In Women Only Spaces

[KiBob]

I posted a few days ago that I need help arguing a case on the debating website Kialo. Thanks to your suggestions I've got one claim accepted that I was struggling with.

I'm now trying to get a new claim past admins.

As a supporting claim to:

"Allowing anyone who identifies as female into women-only spaces makes those spaces worse for cis women".

I put this:

"Trans women are 6 times more likely to commit a crime and 18 times more likely to commit a violent crime compared to female controls as found by this study In Sweden in 2011". With a link to this study:
journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0016885

Admin have responded:

"Hm, interesting link. However, the results don't differentiate between trans men and trans women, and also state this: "Transsexual individuals were at increased risk of being convicted for any crime or violent crime after sex reassignment (Table 2); this was, however, only significant in the group who underwent sex reassignment before 1989." - so this might be a bit outdated - 30 years is pretty long.
Further up, in the Abstract, under results it also says "Female-to-males, but not male-to-females, had a higher risk for criminal convictions than their respective birth sex controls."

Can you point me to the exact place where you get your numbers? Thanks!"

Help!

There are 125 trans prisoners (serving long sentences) within the UK.
100 MTF 25 MTF
With regards to the crimes the only concrete answer is that 60 of these are serving for sexual offences, the only concrete data we have is that 35 of these were born Male.

You are claiming that 25 out of the 60 trans prisoners convicted of sex offences are transmen?

I think it’s fascinating that TRAs have largely ignored transmen so far but they are very quick to throw them under the bus.

Almost like you think transmen are women.

KiBob

Firstly, please don't @me. Apparently it's not the done thing on this board.

Secondly, I don't understand your second paragraph at all.

I have read the thread and what I'm seeing is lot's of guess work regarding numbers of prisoners identifying as trans, types of crimes they are convicted of, number of people identifying as trans in the population as a whole (in order to work out percentages), not knowing if the numbers are trans men + trans women or just trans women, to name but a few of the issues. The absence of data on anyone of those points automatically skews the conclusions that can be drawn.

It's like me saying there are 30 pupils in the class. 27 have dogs. 5 have cats. How many have a sister?

We could all sit here and say well let's assume that 10 of the dog owners have brothers and 3 are only children then 17 have a sister.

It's guess work.

It can't be anything else. For a start off how many trans women and men are there in the country as a whole and how many in prison? Without those 2 fundamental pieces of data you or anyone else is only having a best guess.

The data currently available in the UK might show that trans women offend at the same rate as natal men but in looking at the discussions on this site it seems that that was shown in data from Sweden, so not the UK and was also not recent.

I would also be interested to see just how statistically relevant any data is considering the numbers are so small - how secure can the data be when you are looking at using even the most favourable figures (for you) 130 prisoners out of 300,000 trans gender people in the general population. Increasing that figure to 600,000 makes it even less reliable surely?

@Weetabixandshreddies you've not read the thread, or looked at the numbers posted on this UK website (that I created a spreadsheet of and posted earlier in the thread you say you read):

transcrimeuk.com/

It's not guesswork by any means.

(I'm not one to "do the done thing", thanks)

Aspie
Firstly, please don’t call me a TRA because I don’t agree with the manipulation of statistics.
Secondly, I’m not claiming that at all I’m stating what evidence we have but why can’t a transman be a sex offendor? I know a transman and he is my best friend and one of the most amazing people I know, but study’s that you link too show that transmen offend at a higher rate than woman. If you believe some transwoman transition to access woman, what’s to say some transmen don’t to access young boys? Although girls are statistically more likely to be sexually abused, boys are more likely to be sexually abused by a stranger.
Woman are also not exempt to being sexual predators.
And any time I refer to my transmen friend on here, I get told by at least a couple of posters not to mention him as ‘transmen are so different to transwoman’ I don’t think it’s just TRA that are ignoring them.

R.e the data, it is not untrue As such, but it does not prove anything. The MOJ data is impossible To draw a consensus on as we don’t know how they processed these transgender people, if they were trans at the time of sentencing and what criteria they’ve used or if it’s purely on a say so. We also only have statistics for those serving long prison sentences, we don’t have exact figures on trans men vs trans woman and we don’t know how many trans people there are in the UK.
The Swedish study whilst backing up Male pattern of criminality for the pre 1980 cohort of surveyed transpeople it does not prove this for the post 1980 cohort. It is also a small sample size of only 300 or so trans people, in a study that small, a single bad egg would skew statistics anyway.
The Californian study again is based on 1980 (let’s not forget how bad the MH provisions were then) and again does not say how many trans people there are, does not say where the inmates were from, caters specifically for those in a vulrenable capacity (trans and gay mainly).
None of the studies conclusively support your argument, using them without being aware of the facts of them, doesn’t do anyone good and it’s draining seeing it mentioned on every thread on here as some kind of GOTYA when in reality, it proves nothing.

KiBob your transcrime data is not more relevant than the MOJ data unfortunalty.

It's all relevant.

@KiBob

I cannot see any of the details in the picture that you have posted so I can't comment on the data. However this is the question that you ask
How reliable is the data on the transcrimeuk.com website?

So you appear to be questioning the accuracy of the data that you have used in order to draw your conclusions?

It's all relevant.
Yes of course, but again you have no comparable. You only know the stories of trans people who are in the paper, poverty crimes for example will not be included. Same as the MOJ statistics that only show those on a longer sentence - so you cannot draw a conclusion on what percentage of crimes are sexual.
You also cannot draw a conclusion on what percentage of trans people commit these crimes as you have no data on how many trans people.
Do you really not understand why the data does not stack up?

Looking at those figures still tells you little in isolation.

What are the numbers for women committing the same crimes? The only conclusion that they draw is under the sexual offences heading. How many women were charged in say 2018 with those offences and how many men? Then we might be able to start drawing some inferences but even so statistically I doubt that much can be inferred because the numbers are so small.

Again, I'm not even sure what relevance this has to your argument. Just say you could prove that the risk of trans women committing an offence is X. That might be a small number. Many people might think "not too bad" and not support your argument against self ID. Surely, the big concern is that the introduction of self ID basically renders the whole trans issue moot. Any man would have access to single sex spaces, therefore the rates of crimes committed by trans women is totally irrelevant. You would just need to look at crime rates committed by men because any man could access those spaces.

transcrimeuk - I asked, and I was answered - I have also since read the source of that data (it's written on the about page).

I'm not suggesting I know anything about what percentage of crimes commit by transwomen are sexual crimes. I have at no point said or thought that I did.

I am not concluding that I know what percentage of trans people commit crimes.

However what is very clearly shown (transcrimeuk) is that transmen commit crime at a far lower rate than do transwomen - the polar opposite of crime ratios in the non trans population. A surprising result for those who believe transwomen are women and one which backs up the thesis (the point of this entire thread) that,

"Allowing transwomen into women only spaces make those spaces worse for natal women."

@Weetabixandshreddies you're missing the point of the thread again. It's just about this one thesis:

"Allowing transwomen into women only spaces make those spaces worse for natal women."

For which I am proposing a supporting thesis which is basically:

"Transwomen are more likely to commit a crime than are natal women"

I know a transman and he is my best friend and one of the most amazing people I know, but study’s that you link too show that transmen offend at a higher rate than woman. If you believe some transwoman transition to access woman, what’s to say some transmen don’t to access young boys? Although girls are statistically more likely to be sexually abused, boys are more likely to be sexually abused by a stranger.
Woman are also not exempt to being sexual predators.
And any time I refer to my transmen friend on here, I get told by at least a couple of posters not to mention him as ‘transmen are so different to transwoman’ I don’t think it’s just TRA that are ignoring them.

Facepalm

that transmen commit crime at a far lower rate than do transwoman
I don’t disagree that is the case, but I’ve already told you that your interpretation of figures based on that website is not correct as we already know there are 25 transmen in prison currently on long sentences and 100 transwoman. So yes, more transwoman but not by the figures you’re suggesting and based solely on longer sentences. Also if figures suggest that there are 4x more transwoman than transmen (as you mentioned earlier) then actually the figures tell a different story to what you’re suggesting.

However what is very clearly shown (transcrimeuk) is that transmen commit crime at a far lower rate than do transwomen - the polar opposite of crime ratios in the non trans population.

How do you draw that conclusion then?

The actual number is less but as a statistic?

Surely to work out rates of offending you need to know how many in the general population and how many convicted? For a start we don't know how many trans people in the general population so how can any of the other statistics be worked out?

So that website shows in 2018 1 trans man was convicted. So 1 out of how many?

There might only be 1 trans man in the UK therefore that means 100% are criminals. There might be 100 so only 1% are.

Can you not see how important actual figures are and not just total number of convictions? All the total number shows is how many people were convicted. You can't draw any conclusions from that and if you aren't careful you could get someone publishing that list of offences/offenders alongside a list of offences/offenders of natal males and then state, based on total number of crimes, that trans women commit far less crimes than men. Because it is all in the manipulation of the data.

Facepalm
What at the notion of daring to say that transmen and natal woman are not exempt from committing sexual offences?

Double facepalm.

KiBob why don’t you respond to my earlier comment about your statistics.

If transwoman and transmen as a population percentage sit at 4:1 as per your statistics and the prison ratio of transwoman to transmen is also at a ratio of 4:1 as per MOJ and FPFW statistics, where do you come to the conclusion that transmen commit crime at a far lower rate than do transwoman ?

So...... transmen might be being ignored by women. Why? Well, because women don’t recognise that other women may want to be recognised as male so they can gain access to boys in the same way that predatory men want to gain access to girls. Wow. Triple 🤦‍♀️

Because they clearly do, according to the figures from the data. In my spreadsheet that you claim you cannot see (but you could do your own from transcrimeuk figures) I have actually included the ratio 4:1 in the calculation of the final figures.

Without the ratio applied, transwomen (from tcuk) are 64 times more likely to commit a crime than are transmen.

With the ratio applied (do you need me to do this for you?) they are 16 times more likely.

SIX FUCKING TEEN.

FFS

Yes ki I’ve commented on your spreadsheet, I’m actively telling you that statistics given by the ministry of justice and fair play for woman are more factually correct than a website called ‘transcrime’ that picks and chooses which crimes to track. Is that really that hard to understand?

ChewyLouie
I understand that, for you woman are the concern and therfore transwoman Are the issue. It’s fine that you don’t give transmen a second thought but it’s not really fine to say that TRA only consider transmen when they want to ‘throw them under the bus’ in reference to myself (I’m clearly not a TRA) when in realty, the GC woman in this debate don’t consider them either - and I’m not just talking about criminalising them.

It’s not fine to say I don’t give trans men a second thought. It’s insulting.

EarlyWalker you discredited the stats provided by FPFW et al. so I tried elsewhere.

TCUK is a list of all convicted criminals posted in the media that are trans. Not ideal, best I could do.

Wikipedia says that in the UK in prison in 2018 there are:
79,750 men and 3,870 women.

Ratio: 20.6072351421

Sound roughly familiar?

I didn’t discredit the actual numbers.
MOJ have confirmed the numbers as 100 transwoman and 25 transmen. The ministry of justice is the only place that has no bias and can’t knowingly falsify statistics.
The numbers of long term prisoners are there in black and white. I discredited any assumption of a percentage based on these numbers.

chewy
Practice what you preach. Don’t be one of those that gets as good as you give and then plays the victim. It’s exhausting.

TCUK is a list of all convicted criminals posted in the media that are trans. Not ideal, best I could do.

Well that will be conclusive then because everything published in the media is true, correct and factual.

EW sorry to hear you're exhausted by the comments of an oppressed group.

Meanwhile in other news...

MOJ have confirmed the numbers as 100 transwoman and 25 transmen. The ministry of justice is the only place that has no bias and can’t knowingly falsify statistics. The numbers of long term prisoners are there in black and white. I discredited any assumption of a percentage based on these numbers.

TCUK numbers aren't the number IN prison and have zero to do with the duration of incarceration - they are the conviction counts per year, for specific crime types.