Fermats, my honest answer is I have no idea.
Traditionally an outsider or under dog wins a Tory Party Leadership contest. Mainly cos the favourites get bogged down in the process of stabbing each other in the back.
The next leadership contest is likely to be characteristed by trying to block candidates who are seen as ultras and whilst they have the grass roots support are pretty toxic to the public. There's already an 'anybody but Boris' movement. There is also a group ready to block anyone perceived as a remainer too. (Which is why you are seeing Hunt and Javid doing a lot of tough talk and bigging up their leave credentials)
That leaves the field open for other players to make some tactical moves to get their faction to 'block' someone else in return for support later on in the process.
The Tory party's has two real tensions going on at the moment - being pro-leave and being pro-liberal. In order to win an election they have to have broad appeal to win over the right of the party as well as retaining and reconnecting with the One Nation Tories.
That actually would put Mordaunt in a relatively strong position with being a leaver and also apparently framing herself as being more woke than most of the rest of the right of the party. Plus with being a woman, she may have more appeal to women voters which has been a problem for a party in recent years. Ironically she's picked a woke subject that is totally at odds with that potential appeal though! So how big the trans thing blows up to be, is a big deal for her in terms of her own personal political chances.
If I'm honest though, I don't think Mordaunt is a serious player right now. I suspect the party will go for another male leader after May. It fits more for the rising desire for a 'strong leader' and frankly that stereotype is going to work against all female candidates. May's ineptitude hurts other women in the party I fear. She was set up as the glasscliff for the benefit of the men in the party.
But I also don't rule Mordaunt out completely, because the calibre of all the options on the table is dreadful. It will depend on just how brutual the contest is.
I was unsuprised by May getting the job last time, but I'm not ready to put money on anyone yet for the next contest. Politics are far too volitile right now. How the next month plays out is beyond anyone's prediction skills.